From my point of view Russia will avoid, as long as possible, to fight in any further major city. Such as Kharkov, Zaporizhzhia and Odessa. These are Russian cities and Russia will do what it can, to preserve these cities and spare them from fighting. Again, that’s why the Ukrainian army will either need to be defeated on favourable ground or the country/military/logistics need to be collapsed.
There is much talk, about why Russia is not destroying logistics infrastructure, even though I constantly talking about collapsing logistics. Well, there are many reasons. As I said, it is favourable, that Ukraine is able, to commit the biggest possible effort, to supply its troops. This is a heavy burden on both, Ukraine and NATO. On the other hand, there will be a time, when Ukrainian defences collapse, when Russia will be able to quickly advance over large distances. Every destroyed piece of infrastructure is another burden at this time. Russia will need bridges and a functioning railways system. It is not about HINDERING logistics, it is about OVERSTRECHTCHING it. Remember my logistics chapter. Finally, Russia surely doesn’t plan to fight this war for years. If the Ukrainian collapse will be concluded within the next twelve months, then it would be fatal, to destroy everything possible, that would need to be rebuild anyway very soon, with Russian wealth.
The big question is, will Russia incorporate the whole territory of the former Ukraine into its composition? Well, I think not. One can’t be sure, but that’s my assumption. Why? I think Russia will annex all territories of the former Ukraine, that are culturally and historically close to Russia. The line will be somewhere west of Kiev. Where? I don’t know. But what will happen to the rest? Well, Russia will first need to take the whole territory of Ukraine, to commit denazification and demilitarization. This process could take either months or years, who knows. Think of the same process in Germany and the succeeding tribunals in Nürnberg. Russia of course will annex, what it needs and it wills to annex, right ahead. The rest will be, at least from my understanding, a newly created state, that will be fully controlled by Moscow. A puppet state. I see a possibility, that Poland could get a piece of Ukraine, after negotiations with Moscow. But certainly, the land corridor to Hungary will be under Russia’s control under any circumstances. This is a geopolitical necessity, to be able to develop and support Hungary and Serbia via land and air. Hungary is a great thorn in the side of NATO, which will contribute to greatly to the de-colonialization of Europe. Serbia is a little Russia and Russia is a big Serbia.
What about the timeframes? Well, I think we will need to look for a “break-even” point. As we learned in my former articles, Russia could theoretically end the war immediately. There are, as we learned as well, for example in this article, multi-dimensional reasons, for NOT doing this. There needs to be a point, where Europe and NATO are enough depleted and invested in its own collapse and the accumulated risk of an accidentally triggered nuclear/world war. As longer as this conflict lasts, as higher are the chances, that due to an accident, or some idiot’s sole decision (e.g., false flag with missiles “S300” from Ukraine to Poland) such a war could be triggered. This needs to be controlled closely and avoided of course. There is one more aspect. From my own point of view the most important one. The suffering of the people, living in Ukraine, without power, heating and water over winter. Since the power system is in the meanwhile largely but not fully down, this gives me an indication, that the end of the war won’t be in a too far away future. Okay, what are my estimations? It won’t help you at all… depending on what scenario, of my mentioned ones, develops, I see a large window of time. Between January 2023 in the best case and December 2023 in the worst case, everything is possible.

Well, everything I wrote about predictions in this article are nothing and void, in case, that Phase 4 or Phase 5 would be triggered before its conclusion. Then everything will change. According to the Black Mountain Phase Classification, Phase 4 would be, if single NATO countries such as Poland and the United States, would intervene in any kind without NATO mandate. Phase 5 would be, if NATO would officially step into this war. This would be definitely the trigger for World War 3.
My last thought is about negotiations. The West always denied negotiations, as long as Ukraine had the means, to defend itself at the beginning. Now, that the end is near, and undoubtedly, everyone knows that, the West is calling for negotiations. What is the logic behind this? Let the Russians suffer as many casualties as possible, spent its resources and everything in Ukraine, let Ukraine take back as much land as possible, and then negotiate a ceasefire and freeze the conflict. Well. I will put it very simple. Not gonna happen.
Results
I can’t write yet about results, since Phase 3 is still ongoing.
But in theory everything will be achieved at the end of Phase 3. Remember what I wrote in the “Annexation” chapter? If Russia loses, the world ends. The activation of the Phases 4 or 5 would exactly lead to this result. That’s why I would argue that the full achievement of the set objectives for the SMO will be achieved.

https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-update-03f

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

A rally is held in Warsaw against the involvement of Poland in the hostilities in Ukraine. Several hundred people took part in the march. 

Participants are carrying Polish state flags and posters reading "Who wants Polish blood, get out!" and "Poland chooses peace!" Some demonstrators have posters with inscriptions in Russian.


Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Su-24 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force near the village of Vladimirovka in the DPR.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

🪖 Russian military shot down Ukrainian MI-8 helicopter

📝 “Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter was shot down by air defense systems in Lozova, Kharkiv region,” - a briefing by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

✅ During the day, 14 Ukrainian UAVs were also destroyed in the LPR, DPR, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

👆👆👆
This is the part of the front that is not so "popular" as Artemovsk or Avdeevka, but it's starting to resemble Artemovsk for AFU. The more, the merrier...

PMC "Wagner" will send to Ukraine the corpses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Soledar on 20 trucks

One of the commanders of the "musicians," Lotos said that the shipment is being coordinated with the Ukrainian side. It is planned to transport 4-5 batches of bodies on 20 trucks, FAN reports.

In the fierce battles for Soledar, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses, and the city was literally littered with corpses. Even to the dead opponents, the "Wagners" shows a human attitude. PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin noted the need for a decent sending of bodies home.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

👆👆👆
I must be honest here—nothing to do with humanity but psychological pressure. I wonder whether Ua will accept them...

The fire of Ru artillery destroyed Canadian-made armored car Roshel Senator. Donetsk front

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community