The life expectancy of a person mobilized into the AFU does not exceed a month.

@dillfrash came across one of the obituaries about a Volyn region resident who was mobilized on December 26 into the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

On December 26, he reported to the military registration and enlistment office. 
By December 31, he had passed all examinations and left for his unit.
By January 10, he was in the front 

On January 19, he was destroyed in the area of Novoselovskoye or Belogorovka (that's where the Russian army is engaged in combat operations).
Naturally, there was no question of training.

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Destruction of AFU BMP using guided artillery shell "Krasnopol" in Zaporozhye direction

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Military analyst @Boris_Rozhin writes about the situation in Artemovsk

It is too early to speak about the operational encirclement of the Artemivsk grouping. After taking Kleshcheyevka and advancing towards Krasnoye, our heavy artillery began to cover the Chasov Yar - Artemovsk road running through Krasnoye, but the road can still be used, although it now involves a risk of overlaps. Nevertheless, it is not yet under full fire control, which could be established in the event of a successful assault in Krasne and a further advance towards Chasov Yar.

In the case of the other road, which runs to Artemivsk from the same Chasov Yar, but to the north, it is not yet actively covered by our artillery and is relatively safe for movement. Now our troops are engaged in street battles in Krasnaya Gora, and today they have locked on to Paraskoveyevka, whose establishment of control will allow us to pull up artillery and begin to cover this road from the northwest, increasing the pressure of assault groups and DRGs in the direction of this road. 

Thus, the operational encirclement of the Artemivsk grouping may result from successful actions in these two sectors, and already our troops are quite close to solving these problems. The enemy command understands this and so does the Pentagon, which is why talk about the need to retreat from Artemivsk has intensified over the past few days, and the Americans are already talking about it as if it were inevitable, trying to sweeten the pill of defeat with talk about the unimportance of Artemivsk.

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Germany may allow Poland to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine this week - Sky News, citing a source

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The Non-Bunker Bat’ka

by Lev Vershinin

"I don't know why the Ukrainians want this. On the one hand, they ask us not to go to war with Ukraine in any situation, not to move our troops there. They offer us to sign a non-aggression pact. And on the other hand, they are preparing this rattlesnake mixture [of troops] and arming them. Poland, Lithuania have gone crazy. Why do they need it? It is not clear. That is why we are forced to react harshly..."

In my opinion, it deserves clarification. Indeed, the Führer of Kiev has offered Bat’ka to conclude a kind of "non-aggression pact". Everyone already knows about it. What is less known is that the Führer os offering his personal signature plus (if insufficient) international guarantees as a guarantee on his part, and on the part of Belarus he would like to see the withdrawal of the Russian military forces grouping, together with the removal of the imported military equipment.

Naturally, Bat’ka has refused. Which is logical. No serious politician would talk with a tool (not even with an object) of politics, just as (in this situation) he would not talk with its owners, because everyone already knows that they, having given guarantees, will either forget about them (as they have forgotten about the guarantees given to Yanukovich), or in general (like Merkel and Hollande) will say later that they just wanted to win time.

More than that. It is not advertised, but it is no secret that this offer was not public to begin with. It came through closed channels, and Kiev did not expect it to become known to a wide circle - but Bat’ka announced the fact early in the morning, at a meeting, after which the Führer had to urgently announce that there was nothing secret in the proposal for such a "pact".

And even more so: What follows is inside information, but consider it a mere fantasy—through the same closed channels Kiev was given to understand that any discussion at all would become possible only if Kiev extradited to Minsk a number of persons that are wanted for or have already been convicted in absentia for terrorism by the courts of the Republic of Belarus. Such a unilateral goodwill gesture, they said in Minsk, may create a favorable background for negotiations. And the other side has understood.

The topic is closed, and RB will reactivate equipment that has been carefully in appropriate places stored for many years, and the very interesting military equipment in Minsk's possession will “not” go anywhere, because Western leaders are very wary of the fact that it is in Bat’ka’s hands. And I think many have noticed that the main "message" of Alexander Grigoryevich is addressed not to Kiev, which does not count, but to Warsaw and Vilna...

Link to Source: https://t.me/putnik1lv/2327

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The method of adding downed Geraniums to AFU General Staff summaries. 😀

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Ukraine is unwilling to conclude with Russia a peace agreement similar to the Minsk agreements on settling the conflict in Donbass, which were brokered by Germany and France in 2014 and 2015, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an article published in the US newspaper Politico.

"Some people in the United States and elsewhere in the West continue to recommend that Ukraine enter into negotiations with Russia as soon as possible," the minister wrote in his article. "Partners should force Russia, not Ukraine, to make concessions," he said.

To the last Ukrainian ™️

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🇺🇦Comander of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU Colonel Lutsenko has reported to Major-General Mikatsu O.M., commander of the East Operational Command, that the second battalion of 247 AFU servicemen have given up their tasks during the counter-attack on Marinka settlement. In this case, Lutsenko asks them to rotate, as their moral and psychological state is at a low level.
For his part, Major-General Mikatz O.M. decided to send a Kraken platoon (barrier troops) to force them to carry out tasks under threat of death.

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Two British nationals were killed while attempting a "humanitarian evacuation" from the Ukrainian town of Soledar, a family statement has said.

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🇷🇺 The work of the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter crew in the Ugledar direction.

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The economics of war - how much does it cost to train Ukrainians to fight Abrams 

Let's say at once: for a number of quite objective reasons it is impossible to estimate precisely either the cost of a tank or the cost of training crews. The most important of them is that the accounting of modern army is incredibly complicated. In 2021, the average American soldier cost the US $136,000 a year - a small cost by the standards of the country.

How much the equipment removed from storage costs is more of a philosophical question, and the answer depends on one's point of view. It is a similar story with staff training - we doubt that this sum will include insurance and a family support programme. In the case of Ukrainian tank crew training, it's hard to predict even a programme: for an American tank crew member it takes 22 weeks (about six months), for a maintenance man it's about 13 weeks (3 months), and for a technician on various systems of the fighting vehicle it's 22 to 34 weeks. It takes longer for the commander, but there are huge doubts that Ukrainians will be trained that long.

According to a rough estimate, a two-month course for a Ukrainian tank crew would cost $50,000-200,000, including live firing and work with the equipment and simulators. The training of 100 crews will cost $100 million, but it may be more - we do not know how many live firing and operation hours are included, and one real gunshot costs from $1 to $10 thousand, depending on the shell. So even $100 million could easily turn into a billion, especially taking into account retraining of technicians.

Delivery of modern combat vehicles, at least from storage, is a serious expense. Even for fantastically rich America, an extra couple of billion in aid is not as easy as it sounds. And we're not talking about aviation - that's where every plane really becomes gold.

#source

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O — #Omens, Kiev, Ukraine.

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To get some leopards, you have to think like a leopard.

#source

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"I confirm officially: an internal escalation of the war in Russia is inevitable and there will be different strikes on different targets. What for, by whom and why is another question.We cannot discuss objectively today - we have a lack of public information. Once again: Ukraine is not carrying out strikes against Russia, but nevertheless the logic of war and escalation of the war within Russia will be inevitable. Cities that are pampered, lazy and think they live in a different reality will also be exposed: Moscow, St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and others. Everything will be subject to an escalation of the war, but: this escalation is Russia's internal problem."

Mikhail Podolyak announces strikes on Moscow, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg - he explained the attack on "pampered" cities by the "logic of war".

Zelensky's office advisor Podolyak has predicted Ukrainian army strikes on Russia's biggest cities, which he called "pampered" and "lazy", but did not say who would carry them out, neither how nor why. Referring to the "escalation" of the conflict within Russia and the "logic of war" he himself invented, Podolyak openly declared his intention to strike "various targets" within our country, including Moscow, St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and other cities.

To openly make such statements while telling the world that Ukraine is defending itself against an "aggressor country" is a clear example of the insanity of the Kiev regime. Against a background of huge losses in the ranks of the AFU, conflicts at the highest level of government, widespread mobilization and the surrender of cities, all that the Ukrainian propagandists can do now is to keep the spirit of the AFU troops alive with promises of strikes against Russian cities, the real possibility of which cannot be underestimated.

#source

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According to our source, such urgency in transferring tanks to the AFU is due to several things.
- The AFU has a shortage of tanks. At the beginning of the war there were almost 1,500-2,000 of them, after the partners added more than 700 more. Most have already been destroyed or broken down/butchered, undergoing repairs in Poland/Czech Republic/Bulgaria/Romania. Military factories there are working for Ukraine. But the timeframe for their return to service is 3 to 9 months. There are now about 600 vehicles in service in Ukraine, but they are stretched across the defence line .
- Russia has created a strike fist of 1,500 tanks and is preparing for a march. Plus Russia is introducing newer T-90 breakout tanks, which has made life more difficult for AFU tankers, who are facing these vehicles on the battlefield and losing because they are more modernized and see more, hit harder, more accurately and farther away.
- BRoned vehicles such as MaxxPro or Kirpi etc. are inferior to tanks and become easy targets. In Bakhmut / Soledar / Seversk, the AFU lost over a hundred of vehicles. Also BMPs and APCs cannot cope with the new tanks and suffer huge losses.

The West has decided to level the playing field. To say that the 100-200 tanks being handed over will be enough for a new offensive is manipulation and nonsense. The offensive needs more than 500 vehicles not to mention artillery, SAU and large combat UAVs. 
Most likely this is defence reinforcement and an attempt to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from blitzkrieg.

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Due to the mass exodus from the battlefield, Zelensky signed law 8271, which increases the criminal liability of the military for a number of violations.
▪️Among them are failure to follow orders, escape from the battlefield, from a military unit, refusal to act with weapons, etc.
▪️Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Defense Reznikov spoke about the reasons for the law: “there are problems in certain situations with discipline”, but the Russians are to blame for this, who "incite the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

#source

Translated by: sir Cheburashka

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According to CNN, the US and its allies want Ukraine to change its tactics in the spring.

At a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, and Under Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kahl said the US wants to suggest that Ukraine abandon the ongoing battle of attrition at Bakhmut and instead focus on mechanized maneuver warfare that uses quick, unforeseen action against Russia, sources familiar with the discussion said.

Officials said that hundreds of armored vehicles that the US and European countries have provided to Ukraine in recent weeks, including 14 British tanks, are meant to help Ukraine achieve this goal.

The push for Ukraine to change its tactics on the battlefield comes amid signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating a major move in the next few weeks to regain the lead in the war, officials familiar with intelligence told CNN.

CIA director Bill Burns traveled to Kyiv earlier this month to brief Zelensky on the US assessment of Putin's plans, sources familiar with the conversation told CNN.
There are also signs that Putin is considering another mobilization of up to 200,000 troops, U.S. and Western officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

The Kremlin has begun conducting a domestic poll to gauge the popularity of the latest mobilization, two officials said. The next mobilization, according to some, will be quieter than the first, when Putin himself went on television, calling it a "partial mobilization."

In recent weeks, some senior Russian military officials have even been heard discussing the possibility of an attempt to seize Kharkiv, according to people familiar with the talks intercepted by Western and Ukrainian intelligence.

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