Ukrainian tanks with crosses near the border with Belarus.
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Moscow has identified as a priority not the occupation of territories, but the destruction of the armed formations of the enemy, and his resources. After its achievement, the liberation of historical Russian lands will go very quickly.
In the context of what is happening for the West, it is trying to bargain for time for Ukraine to have time to prepare the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counteroffensive, repeating the success of the Kharkov offensive. For which, among other things, it is necessary to try to force the Russian Army to significantly stretch the front line to weaken a number of its sections that the Nazis will break through.
In the meantime, the task that the Western curators set for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to prevent the front from collapsing, for which it is necessary, to stop the panic, to create reserves, as was the case in the summer of 2022, when Bankovaya lost in the Severodonetsk loop, but managed to accumulate strength for the Kharkov offensive. But today this combination is incomparably more difficult to implement.
All the talk about the Western prodigy does not impress Ukrainians too much, who understand that even if you believe in their miraculous powers, these weapons simply do not keep up with the right moment. Therefore, for the sake of raising morale, they say at Bankovaya that they have long been working on options for delivering strikes on the territory in the depths of Russia. But here there is also a problem - long-range planning bombs will be delivered only after 9 months. But in this case, this suits the Nazi elite quite well, which is justifiably afraid that after the use of such weapons, the hunt for them personally may begin, as they once did for Dudaev and Basaev. And so you can tell your citizens how they will disrupt the summer season in Crimea by constantly striking at the beaches and hotels of the peninsula. At the same time, the entire responsibility for the fact that this will not work out lies with the Western masters, who did not supply weapons on time. There is, however, a risk that in Moscow they will decide to prevent them, without waiting for them to spoil.
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Украинские эксперты заявляют, что темпы начавшегося российского наступления слишком медленны, чтобы "иметь масштабный успех в информационном поле". Всё верно - Москва не гонится за сиюминутным пиаром, а играет в долгую. Поэтому неспешное давление по всём…
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🇺🇦🇷🇺 That story of the shooting of a Russian unarmed soldier and the fight with the mercenaries has a new name. It is one of the foreigners liquidated by Russian troops on that day.
Thus, from circumstantial indications such as correspondence in tweets and references by Finnish mercenaries to the knowledge of Russian by one of them, it turned out that Irishman Rory Mason was involved in the events. He was one of the few mercenaries who had studied Russian, so it turned out to be easy.
The Irishman died at the very beginning of October, less than a week after the story itself. By the way, the liquidation of Rory Mason (in the picture ) was confirmed long ago.
PS A certain Steve - the second one, killed also in the Kharkov region
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Thus, from circumstantial indications such as correspondence in tweets and references by Finnish mercenaries to the knowledge of Russian by one of them, it turned out that Irishman Rory Mason was involved in the events. He was one of the few mercenaries who had studied Russian, so it turned out to be easy.
The Irishman died at the very beginning of October, less than a week after the story itself. By the way, the liquidation of Rory Mason (in the picture ) was confirmed long ago.
PS A certain Steve - the second one, killed also in the Kharkov region
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"You can only dream,"— Vucic commented on statements by Western politicians on the need to recognize Kosovo's independence.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has responded sharply to a statement by U.S. Special Representative for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar about the need for Belgrade to recognize the "Republic of Kosovo." Earlier, Escobar had also stressed that the recognition of Kosovo's independence should be the "ultimate goal" of the Western-backed dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.
Against the background of the statement of the Prime Minister of unrecognized Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who said that he accepted the EU's proposal to normalize relations with Serbia, Escobar's statements about the need to recognize Kosovo once again emphasize the collective pressure of the West on Vucic and attempts to force Belgrade to accept conditions of peace that are unacceptable for Serbia.
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Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has responded sharply to a statement by U.S. Special Representative for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar about the need for Belgrade to recognize the "Republic of Kosovo." Earlier, Escobar had also stressed that the recognition of Kosovo's independence should be the "ultimate goal" of the Western-backed dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.
Against the background of the statement of the Prime Minister of unrecognized Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who said that he accepted the EU's proposal to normalize relations with Serbia, Escobar's statements about the need to recognize Kosovo once again emphasize the collective pressure of the West on Vucic and attempts to force Belgrade to accept conditions of peace that are unacceptable for Serbia.
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‼️ Funerals after Wagner's active actions in the north and east of Artemovsk, as well as the 200th from Belogorovka ‼️
Only in Vinnitsa 30 coffins per day.
And so every city, every day.
From here we can proceed about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the month
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Only in Vinnitsa 30 coffins per day.
And so every city, every day.
From here we can proceed about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the month
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‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️Ukrainians die for them: "You don't have money anyway, so don't try to count other people's money"
An elite escort officer of the border service mocked poor Ukrainians and finally paid the price
The press officer of the State Border Guard Service Ivanna Plantovskaya, who was transferred to a new position after the scandal over her vacation in Paris during the war, continued to publish photos in the "luxury" style and boldly respond to critics of the Web. After high-profile scandals, the leadership of the border service finally decided to fire her.
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The press officer of the State Border Guard Service Ivanna Plantovskaya, who was transferred to a new position after the scandal over her vacation in Paris during the war, continued to publish photos in the "luxury" style and boldly respond to critics of the Web. After high-profile scandals, the leadership of the border service finally decided to fire her.
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❗️ The Russian army occupied more than a third of Bakhmut (Artemovsk) - media
The RF Armed Forces occupied more than a third of Bakhmut (Artemovsk), media reported.
💬 “The Russians occupied more than a third of Bakhmut. It must be admitted that the enemy is learning, the enemy is difficult. And there is no easy walk here, ”the words of Ukrainian officer Denis Yaroslavsky are quoted.
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The RF Armed Forces occupied more than a third of Bakhmut (Artemovsk), media reported.
💬 “The Russians occupied more than a third of Bakhmut. It must be admitted that the enemy is learning, the enemy is difficult. And there is no easy walk here, ”the words of Ukrainian officer Denis Yaroslavsky are quoted.
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Quote: It must be admitted that the enemy is learning..end quote
Or is more likely that you are killed in such numbers that all further resistance is pointless? But your lives are at stake. You can always surrender. But judging by the level of delusion, I don't find it likely.
Quote: It must be admitted that the enemy is learning..end quote
Or is more likely that you are killed in such numbers that all further resistance is pointless? But your lives are at stake. You can always surrender. But judging by the level of delusion, I don't find it likely.
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Wartears.org's report on Ukrainian casualties
Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)
> Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight IntoRussian Ukrainian Tactics
>Moscow Kiev is sending poorly trained recruits, including convicts, to the front lines in eastern Ukraine to pave the way for more seasoned fighters, U.S. and allied officials say. - NYT*
Let's go into detail. Three and a half months ago, we published our mathematical model, to show how we estimate the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this time (and even before: the idea of such an estimation came to us back in June, shortly after the launch of the project), we were very curious about other estimation methods. To our disappointment, there weren't any.
And finally, a few days ago, CIT posted an article, referring to another one by the New York Times, where they estimated the losses of Russian troops. Finally, we saw at least some method of calculating the casualties to put our hands on!
Yesterday, it turned out that our estimate of the number of people killed was confirmed by Mossad, and, indirectly, by a retired US colonel. We were curious as to what would happen if we were to plug our data and estimates of Ukrainian losses into the @CITeam methodology and estimate Ukrainian losses this way.
Here's what happened:
1. The number of dead - 180 thousand - we took from our estimate, which has already coincided with statements of officials and experts several times with good accuracy.
2. Next (quote from CIT) "we cautiously assume that the number of missing people can be from a third of those buried to an equal number," and so we get the number of missing people: - from 60 to 180 thousand KIA.
3. That is, the total number of dead and missing Ukrainian military personnel is from 240 to 360 thousand.
4. (CIT again) "To count the wounded, we use ratios from 1:3 to 1:4 to the dead," which gives us from 720 to 1,440 thousand wounded.
5. (And once again, CIT) "Thus, we estimate the losses of" the Ukrainian military to be between 960 and 1,800 thousand people.
Conclusion: According to the data from MOSSAD and the methodologies of CIT and the NYT, Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.
* Yes, we somewhat loosely tweaked the original title to match the data.
This is just a "half-joking" exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.
[Русская версия]
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Ukrainian casualties range from 0.96 million to 1.8 million, according to Mossad, US Command, Conflict Intelligence Team (@CITeam), New York Times (@nytimes)
> Soaring Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into
>
Let's go into detail. Three and a half months ago, we published our mathematical model, to show how we estimate the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. All this time (and even before: the idea of such an estimation came to us back in June, shortly after the launch of the project), we were very curious about other estimation methods. To our disappointment, there weren't any.
And finally, a few days ago, CIT posted an article, referring to another one by the New York Times, where they estimated the losses of Russian troops. Finally, we saw at least some method of calculating the casualties to put our hands on!
Yesterday, it turned out that our estimate of the number of people killed was confirmed by Mossad, and, indirectly, by a retired US colonel. We were curious as to what would happen if we were to plug our data and estimates of Ukrainian losses into the @CITeam methodology and estimate Ukrainian losses this way.
Here's what happened:
1. The number of dead - 180 thousand - we took from our estimate, which has already coincided with statements of officials and experts several times with good accuracy.
2. Next (quote from CIT) "we cautiously assume that the number of missing people can be from a third of those buried to an equal number," and so we get the number of missing people: - from 60 to 180 thousand KIA.
3. That is, the total number of dead and missing Ukrainian military personnel is from 240 to 360 thousand.
4. (CIT again) "To count the wounded, we use ratios from 1:3 to 1:4 to the dead," which gives us from 720 to 1,440 thousand wounded.
5. (And once again, CIT) "Thus, we estimate the losses of" the Ukrainian military to be between 960 and 1,800 thousand people.
Conclusion: According to the data from MOSSAD and the methodologies of CIT and the NYT, Ukraine has lost from 3 to 6% of its total population.
* Yes, we somewhat loosely tweaked the original title to match the data.
This is just a "half-joking" exercise, but we are hoping to soon deliver a proper detailed analysis and explanation on why such methodology should not be used. We want to seriously explain why such methods are flawed and what exactly their significant shortcomings are.
[Русская версия]
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Media is too big
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The war may not end as the Ukrainians expect, and as a result, Ukraine may not return all its territories, and the West is ready to follow such a scenario, said Alexei Arestovich, a former adviser to the President's Office.
“What will happen to the society that raised its expectations too high, but will receive a conditional Minsk-3? This recoil of unfulfilled expectations will hit us so hard - morally and everything else - that we will simply be stunned.
The way out of this war may not be at all what it seemed to us three months ago, after the success of the Kherson operation. And not because the insidious Americans do not give weapons or delay, but because success requires 400 thousand of perfectly trained soldiers with NATO weapons to grind it all up and liberate the territories. Do we have it? No. Will it be next year? Will not be. There will not be enough training facilities... We as a society are not ready for such an outcome. I decided to say it as the expectation of the Russian side. But the most unpleasant thing is that in the West they think the same way, and we are totally dependent on them. What should the West do? The scenario of two Koreas. Create South Korea with guarantees,” Arestovich said, adding that with this option, Ukraine can get a lot of bonuses.
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“What will happen to the society that raised its expectations too high, but will receive a conditional Minsk-3? This recoil of unfulfilled expectations will hit us so hard - morally and everything else - that we will simply be stunned.
The way out of this war may not be at all what it seemed to us three months ago, after the success of the Kherson operation. And not because the insidious Americans do not give weapons or delay, but because success requires 400 thousand of perfectly trained soldiers with NATO weapons to grind it all up and liberate the territories. Do we have it? No. Will it be next year? Will not be. There will not be enough training facilities... We as a society are not ready for such an outcome. I decided to say it as the expectation of the Russian side. But the most unpleasant thing is that in the West they think the same way, and we are totally dependent on them. What should the West do? The scenario of two Koreas. Create South Korea with guarantees,” Arestovich said, adding that with this option, Ukraine can get a lot of bonuses.
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