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🇺🇦 What Will Happen to Zelensky if He Stops the War at the Front Line? — by Strana.UA

Due to recent statements by Zelensky, which hint at a willingness to stop the war at the front line, there's a question of how Ukrainian society will react to such a move.

Some believe that if Zelensky abandons the demand to return to the 1991 borders, he could be ousted from power, either through a new Maidan, a rebellion by "patriotic soldiers," or elections if the war ends.

Borys Krotevych of the Azov Regiment stated, "No peace without victory. Victory means no Russian soldiers on Ukrainian territory. If this is an attempt to compromise, don't even think about it."

Aleksey Arestovich argues that the government has created high expectations of victory, and changing this stance could cause public outrage. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko mentioned that Zelensky's opponents are trying to corner him: if he negotiates peace without the 1991 borders, he will be labeled a traitor; if he doesn't, he will be accused of sacrificing the Ukrainian people.

However, the war-time sociology doesn't reflect true public sentiment, as many fear expressing views contrary to the government's. There is an increasing number of people supporting a compromise for peace, and if the government advocates this, public opinion might shift in its favor.

Moreover, if Zelensky and his team decide, they can potentially shift the public's image of victory to mean "preserving Ukrainian statehood and access to the sea." Many Ukrainians, including notable figures from various political backgrounds, already support this view.

Stopping the war at the front line might not be seen as betrayal by residents of frontline cities, men avoiding conscription, or struggling Ukrainian entrepreneurs. The main threat to Zelensky comes from nationalist and far-right groups who benefit from prolonged conflict.

Ultimately, Zelensky can control the situation and avoid unrest if he ends the war at the front line. As "the president who preserved Ukraine's independence and led it to a fair peace," he could even have good chances for re-election.

The real challenge in peace negotiations will be agreeing on terms that include security guarantees for Ukraine and ensuring the war does not resume, involving not just Russia but also the West and possibly China. Reaching such an agreement will be complex, but if achieved, internal Ukrainian sentiment is unlikely to be a major obstacle.

A prolonged war poses greater risks, threatening to drain the nation and army, destabilize the country, and potentially lead to military defeat.

@ukraine_watch

The German right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) will join Viktor Orban's newly-formed European right-wing bloc, The Times reports. A few days earlier, the Hungarian prime minister announced the creation of a "Patriots for Europe" bloc together with the Austrian and Czech parties (FPÖ and ANO), which became leaders in the European elections.

Orban is confident that the new grouping will quickly grow to become "the largest faction of right-wing forces in Europe."

"We have launched a new parliamentary group that is growing at an incredible pace, very soon we will become the third and then the second group in Brussels ... Four or five more days and many people will be surprised. Negotiations are going on with many. The founding meeting of the faction is scheduled for July eighth."
- he stated.

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🇷🇺 Russia defied sanctions to join high-income rank

The World Bank’s recognition of Russia as a high-income country is "not surprising, but a reality”, Dr. Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, told Sputnik.

Russia is seeing income growth of around 4-5%, with earnings growing in double digits, Ostapkovich said, stressing that the driving force is economic growth.

"Incomes only grow when the economy grows. If the economy grows, then profits grow. If profits grow, then the entrepreneur is keen on hiring people and raising wages," he added.

Russia’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2023, with real incomes and nominal wages up by 4.5% and 13% respectively. Industrial performance, particularly in manufacturing, is propelling this growth not seen in 20 to 30 years. Notably, mechanical engineering in the military industry is expanding at 25-30%, according to Ostapkovich.

Andrey Kolganov, Doctor of Economics and Head of the Laboratory of Socio-Economic Systems at Moscow State University, acknowledged that despite the challenges posed by the growth stimuli, Western sanctions failed to inflict significant harm on the Russian economy.

"The Russian economy has shown great potential in adapting to these difficulties. Moreover, these difficulties stimulated the development of domestic production, which in turn led to high rates of economic growth," he added.

Kolganov noted that economic growth rates were higher in 2023, compared to 2022 - and even higher in 2024. These increases promoted Russia from the classification of middle-income countries, to the rank of high-income countries. Although Russia has not caught up with the richest countries, the achievement is nonetheless remarkable, especially in the face of unprecedented sanctions.

Gross national income per capita in Russia is now $14,250, according to a document released by the World Bank that classifies countries that cross the $13,485 threshold as “high income.”

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🇺🇦 In most countries surveyed by Pew Research, the number of people who do not trust Zelensky is higher than those who do trust the Ukrainian president.

The survey was conducted in 35 countries, and in 20 of them, Zelensky is more distrusted than trusted.

The leaders in distrust are Hungary and Greece.

The list also includes two G7 countries – Italy and France.

Additionally, countries such as Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina are among those that distrust him.

The leader in trust is Sweden, followed by Britain and the Netherlands.

This list also includes Japan, Australia, and Germany.

In the United States, those who trust Zelensky slightly outnumber those who do not.

India and Spain have nearly equal levels of trust and distrust.

@ukraine_watch