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CRYPTO MARKET ADJUSTMENTS TO POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN WEST ASIA

✍️ Written by Hikaru Kitabayashi ✍️

This is not a financial analysis nor does it give financial advice. Reading this will make no one richer or poorer. It does, though, seek to draw attention to how major cryptocurrency holders are reacting to expectations of future real world political and economic events.

On a day to day or even an hour to hour basis cryptocurrency prices can vary dramatically. Over the long term, however, they also reveal patterns in real world economic and political conditions. It shows that this year the trend has been toward massive increases in funds available to the richest of the rich. In traditional economic theory, this would indicate spectacular rises in inflation. In fact, money has tended to stay in what can be called the "gambling sector" of the economy, which can be defined as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrency. To the extent that new funds have not yet leaked into other markets, price increases on daily goods and services have produced a level of pain that is not yet deadly, merely extremely uncomfortable.

What happened this year was that the production of goods and services did not match the rise in new money being created. Because of the prevalence of political sanctions, currencies were not allowed to flow freely and this affected the functioning of stock markets and other financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, being an escape mechanism, saw a fairly strong rise in value against major currencies over the course of the year. They provided a means for holding measures of economic exchange that have a healthy level of immunity to the danger of holding too much of any particular national currency and provided a way to help prevent rigidities in the stock market from becoming unbearable.

Spring and Summer of this year, thus, have represented an important turning point. Before, the biggest cryptocurrency market players were the world's various intelligence agencies. Cryptocurrencies were much appreciated as a way to transfer money undetected. This year, though, BlackRock became a major player. Small players also seem to have emerged. A close inspection of the cryptocurrency markets would suggest that, although the Islamic Axis of Resistance must be minor market players, they sometimes seem to time their attacks on Israel and the United States in such a way as to profit off of the short term hour to hour changes in market evaluation their activities are bound to cause.

Generally, the world is now flush with increasing amounts of national currencies chasing pools of goods and services which are not growing nearly as fast and, in many cases, not at all. Those in the know are, thus, increasingly putting their funds into cryptocurrency. News articles reporting spectacular rises in value, however, are not true, if we mean real value. What we are seeing, in fact, is an effort by the richest of the rich, through the exchange of cash holdings for cryptocurrency holdings, to protect their cash reserves from more generalized inflation and economic collapse.

In this case, rapidly rising cryptocurrency price inflation is a sign of fear, not confidence. There is fear that West Asia will experience a political Armageddon which cause the economy of the Collective West to collapse. In such a world, it is clear that no national currency will be worth the cost of the paper it's printed on, and cryptocurrencies will become the main means of valuing important goods and services. This is nowhere being voiced in print, but cryptocurrency market trends over the course of this year indicate a growing sense of unease that is becoming greater rather than less, as overly rigid political positions make the world's economic future ever less predictable.

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