Kursk operation of the AFU. What has changed after two weeks?

🔺The last 14 days have shown that the Ukrainian army's plan for the Kursk region had both curious moments and obvious miscalculations, directly affecting the timing of the operation and its prospects.

Did the AFU achieve its goal?

If the primary objective was to demonstrate a strike on the "old" Russian territory and the parallel information pumping to demonstrate the very possibility of such a strike, then the AFU's plan can be considered accomplished. At the same time, the informational component became decisive, since the purely military goal of capturing the key directions of Suja-Snagost, Korenevo-Rylsk and L'gov-Kurchatov was not achieved, which actually means that the AFU has no operational success. In fact, now we are talking about the fact that the Ukrainian army has pulled forward the main forces that need to be supplied with everything necessary for combat operations. For now, the AFU still has this opportunity, but the window of opportunity for this will soon close.

What problems have the Ukrainian Armed Forces already uncovered?

The destruction of three HIMARS MLRS, Patriot SAMs and IRIS-T in close proximity to the front indicates that for the Kursk operation, the AFU used something that is long and expensive to reproduce. For effective firing such weapons should be moved closer to the state border. As they start to move them and turn them on, they start to get hit.

■ The supply of a successful, well-organized breakthrough (and it is pointless to dispute this) began to close in from both sides. It is premature to talk about "pincers" yet, but artillery is working from the side of the state border, and the opposite side along the supply routes is being actively worked on with the help of remote minesystems "Zemledeliye", thus complicating the movement where it should have been guaranteed.

The activity vector of the raid groups does not change and remains the same: the AFU is moving its troops along the N-07 Kiev-Sumy highway with access to Sudzha. On this highway, the Russian Armed Forces' artillerymen and aviation are successfully extinguishing reserves, evacuated equipment, and much of what has not yet been included in the bulletins.

Can the Kursk operation be considered a success for the AFU?

All the main battles of the AFU are now trying to be fought along the R-200 highway to Kursk. The main trump card in the form of the element of surprise has already been lost, but the density of troops is still high and the Ukrainian forces are still trying to advance in this area. However, this road, as well as the N-07 highway, is actually alternative-free and almost immediately taken under the fire control of the Russian Armed Forces.

At the same time, pressure on this section is impossible without pulling out ALL the reserves allocated for the operation, which the AFU still has, but are not infinite.

At the same time, the pumping of information space with virtual victories as in the first days continues, but its quality and intensity are obviously decreasing. In most cases, the Internet is saturated with "canned" footage shot during the first three days of the breakthrough.

This suggests that almost the main purpose of the AFU operation was "psychologizing", and not to the Russian military, but to the population (both its own and on the territory of the Russian Federation), which, in addition to CIPSO, was actively swayed by numerous messages not only by Ukrainian information units, but also by bloggers.

Military Chronicle

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