Things are escalating fast between US and Iran. For now I suggest you stay bullish on oil. Gold is a bit over bought at the moment so even if it pulls itself to 1600 directly, there is no way but to give at least a 200 pip correction before moving higher (in case a direct conflict happens between the two)

For now, market is a panic. So we can expect it to cool down in a couple of days if nothing big happens.

my chart and small orders on WTI Crude #oil

as you can see, price jumped up and reached my desired area and after collecting the profit, now that I'm following the news of IRGC Iraqi branch (Hashad Alshabi) fighting US in Iraq, I'm sure over the weekend we will get more news on the conflict and next week we might see a big gap upwards.

I have entered two small 0.1 orders and have placed pending order to let the fluctuations till midnight activate as many of them as possible and then hold them for the target of 74 (or 65 if news isn't that heavy!)

obviously I expect the price to even reach 58 price range (bottom of my channel) but if somehow price reaches there, I'm going to add to my positions and hold for a retouch of 61.61 price and average out.


be careful and trade it on your own risk if you want to trade it.

have a nice weekend.

Seems like it's going higher with the news of the first wave of attacks on US base in einol Asad, Iraq (not sure of the English spelling of it lol) but I'm not going to add to my orders now. I'm going to let it move around, cause oil can be wild like that sometimes with sharp sudden moves, so the trick is to not let the moves overwhelm you, so you start by a small order and just place pending orders for your bias and check back on it on Monday 😅😄

The tentions are rising between US and Iran. A big possibility for a positive gap up on #Oil and #Gold.

For now I suggest you avoid shorting gold. It could break the historic high during the attacks in upcoming days.

Oil opened with a +85 pip gap!

OK so the situation seems to be getting worse. More than 50 people died in the Soleimani's funeral ceremony!
And now everyone expect Iran to react by attacking American bases around Iran.

The government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Their supporters expect them to take revenge and attack the US, but on the other hand they know that if they attack they are not going to win the war.

There is a big possibility of Iran attempting to close the Hormuz strait. If that happens the price of oil will jump up. Seems like that will be the least military type response they can do to avoid a full confrontation with US in a battlefield. So Im guessing it might happen in the next couple of days.


Also, if any military attack happens on either side and they go to war, you don't want to be on the short selling side of the market!

There are some unconfirmed reports of massive explosions from rocket fired at US bases in Iraq.
Brace yourselves guys. It could turn into WWIII real quick 😅😂

Oil jumped with confirmation of rocket attacks on US base. I hope you got on when I posted about it 😅

The waves are rockets aren't ending yet.. More are coming from west side of Iran.

We are officially in war with US.

Gold will break the historic highs in the upcoming days.

I saved my profits on orders of oil. About $3.5K. Now I have a 1 lot order at 65

And a pending order for another 1 lot buy order on 64.46

This thing is just going to push the price higher in the upcoming days and we can expect 75 or even 100 dollars per barrel in the next 8 weeks. So I'm going to swing it till 74.47 for now and then we'll see how market reacts.

Since some members messaged me about this trade I want to clarify some stuff here to avoid further confusion for others.

The support level for oil is $58-60 price range.
The move down is in not sustainable, with the tentions between US and Iran the Persian Gulf is not a safe place for the oil tankers and any threat to them will send the price higher towards 69 (target if price touches 60) and $74.47 targets.

Currently the gulf's air space is full of US and Iran fighter jets and the radio communication is crazy high. There is a big possibility for a US response to last night's rocket attacks from Iran.

Saudi Arabia just shut down the movement of all their oil tankers from Hormuz Strait.
They won't be exporting oil from Hormuz Strait anymore!

Airlines around the world are shutting down their flights in Iran and Iraq air space.
(Expecting a military conflict)

Roumors of Israeli fighter jets bombing Hashad al-shabi bases (militia affiliated with Iran) are going around Twitter.

#oil

Since both leaders of US and Iran said they do not want a war, so the fear of a war breaking out is fading away (which is pushing gold down)

But the thing is that I don't think the situation is the same for Iran as it is for US..
Iran can't just forget about the confrontation with US since the economy is crumbling and US is emposing more sanctions to make things even worse.. So unless they allow Iran to sell oil (highly unlikely as it makes the sanctions pointless) Iran will have to escalate tentions again around hormuz strait (threatening to close it unless they get relief from sanctions) to try to force their way into international trade.
Considering the US current leader aim of regime change in Iran, there is no way the two countries can get along.

There is also that whole Ukrainian plane thing that's putting pressure on Iran's government and the Iraqi government attempt to get US troops out of Iraq (threatening to stop selling oil unless they leave, and Trump saying "I don't care, USA don't need your oil")

So overall, I still believe this is just the calm before the storm.

America just sanctioned 8 high ranking Iranian government officials for their role in killing Iranian protestors.
And also seized about @.5 billion dollars of funds belonging to Iranians outside of Iran.

This could potentially push the price of bitcoin higher since cryptos are a good way for going around sanctions when people involved in illegal schemes need a way to move around their money.

Just to be clear, BTCUSD is still in a bearish channel in weekly timeframe, so I'm not suggesting anyone to trade it.

I'm just saying 5-7K price range might end up becoming the support for 2020

OK it seems like the sanctions only blocked the money that belonged to Iranian official's overseas!

My mistake!

I was panicing about having my accounts freezed but it seems like its not going to affect all Iranians! Phew!

That's the wrap on the week.

Expect a lot of US vs Iran news over the weekend.

Im hearing roumors on social media channels close to Iran's government that Iran is planning to close down Hormuz strait to both force the international market into giving them sanction relief and also create some chaos to pull attentions away from the Ukrainian plane crash in Tehran.

I expected trump to stay silent till markets are closed and his tweets cant get in the way of his bullrun setting new record highs in the stock market. So the fight is likely to happen over the weekend (startin with Iran threatening to close hormuz strait or their proxies attacking Israel)

I will try to update you all on news about Middle East over the weekend as well.


Have a nice weekend everyone