Warning, video contains horrifying images.

The situation in Iran is getting worse and worse everyday. there are videos of a lot of coronavirus patients that are children under the age of 10 years old (people previously thought it doesn't affect children as much as adults but now due to the high number of children affected by the disease they are worried that the virus might have mutated while spreading outside of china from person to person.

the video also shows the lack of proper medical care in Iranian hospitals to the extent of not even having enough oxygen tanks for all the patients and disinfectant for keeping the hospital clean or even enough masks for the doctors and nurses (the death rate here seems to be closer to %20 according to the numbers reported on number of patients vs deaths)

Still, no reason to run to the bunkers yet. there was a news article on daily mail a couple days ago about an american company developing a vaccine for the virus which will become ready for animal testing soon, so it seems like in the next 2 months they will come up with a cure for it.

in the meantime, the panic + the actual effect of the virus on human societies around the world (quarantined cities, airplane flights shutting down, people staying indoors etc..) will definitely affect world economy. so for us traders, the effect on oil prices (demand from china and the rest of the world) and stock market (people dumping stocks for gold in fear) is what we should keep an eye on.

so far both china and US have been injecting massive amounts of cash into their markets to prevent the effects of the coronavirus on their economy, so its expected for them to continue down that route.
the feds are likely to keep buying bonds to the tune of $60bn till March 12th, but given that they are not interested in rate cuts, we should wait to see what they will replace it with in upcoming months. obviously if they delay the announcement of the replacement or they don't announce anything at all, the worries will grow in the bond market, stock market and within buyers of USD in FX market.
China is also seems to be going down the route of giving tax incentives to industries affected by the virus. about $3.5bn of the total $8bn will go to Hubei province. last week China provided medium-term funding to banks and cut the interest rate it charges for the money as officials sought to protect the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. offered 200 billion yuan (US$28.6 billion) of one-year medium-term loans.
three days ago they cut the rates again on one year loans from %4.15 to %4.05 and on the 5 year loans from %4.80 to %4.75.
so they are also very likely to keep injecting more cash into their economy.

Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act Fast

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/millions-of-chinese-firms-face-collapse-if-banks-don-t-act-fast

A big gap down in oil, and a gap up in gold and a run up to 1680 (highest level since Feb 2013!)

#GBPJPY - Daily

seems like GBP buyers are running out of steam.
price getting stopped at 145 resistance area and moving towards support at 142 area.

I posted the signal of this pair along with a more comprehensive analysis on the bot. so if you are on both sides, now you can see the difference 😅
if you haven't joined the bot (@Linorth_bot) yet, feel free to do it now. its free for the next 4 days as a trial run for anyone who wants to give it a try ;)

Warning of potential volatility:

25-28 February

This week's economic events expected to affect the markets of some of the most widely traded currencies.



 Tuesday, 25 February

09:00: EUR – German GDP Detailed

  

 Wednesday, 26 February

23:45: NZD – Trade Balance

  

 Thursday, 27 February

02:30: AUD – Capital Expenditure

15:30: USD – GDP 2nd Estimate

  

 Friday, 28 February

01:30: JPY – CPI

01:30: JPY – Unemployment Rate

10:55: EUR – German Unemployment Chg

10:55: EUR – German Unemployment Rate

15:00: EUR – German CPI

15:30: CAD – GDP

18:00: CAD – Budget Balance

  
All times are GMT+2

US Treasury Bonds situation is getting to crisis levels!
Ten-year bond yields have now hit a historic low of 1.37% and trying to break down!

(The Federal Reserve should take control of the market as soon as possible)

The last monday of February this year, like two years ago, is turning into another black Monday!
US Treasury bond yields hit a historic low.
Market concerns about the escalation of the slowdown in economic boom are on the rise and shareholders are turning to the Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs for safety.


The People's Bank of China has just issued a statement and no new liquidity has been injected!

This one hit the target, so congrats to those who took it.

#GBPJPY - H4

for a simple sell, you can enter in the blue area with a stop behind 145.100 and the target being 143.300

I just posted it here so everyone can see the difference between signals posted on the bot and pure analysis posted here in the channel.

The bot is still free to use for 4 more weeks, so you can join now if you havent already!

We are working on designing prediction models for the market. Still on the beginning stage and only taking baby steps..
For this one we used data from 2000 to 2020 but we didnt use all the data since we need to move the proccessing to gpu instead of cpu first to increase our speed. So for this model we only used the last 100000 data points and train on %60 of it to predict the rest (which in no way is a perfect approach)
I will blog about the process in more details on my Quors Space so if you are interested, subscribe to the space.

(Dont use this chart for your trading please. This is a faulty modeling on minute chart. Im just sharing it for visuals)

Friendly reminder.

These are the last times the Fed & the BoC cut rates by at least 50bps in the same month:

3/2001
9/2001
10/2001
11/2001
03/2008
10/2008
12/2008

Alright, I have a couple of things to say.

First about the market:

Due to the feud between Saudis and Russians over oil prices, it seems like now the Saudis are fighting for their lost market share by increasing their production and pumping oil into the market, since they are the only major producer capable of turning a profit with cheap oil. they are also going to offer their clients a -$10 discount on market price of oil to even push the prices below the tolerance level of their rivals. so we are likely to see oil opening with a -900 pip gap ($9) or at around $32.

stock markets are going to keep crashing this week due to COVID19 and its expected for JPY to get stronger and also gold, while CAD will most likely get weaker due to oil crashing.


on a more personal note, my older sister who is a healthcare professional has gotten the COVID19 and its getting worse (judging by her lungs scan) and chances are high that I might be infected as well.
so I have some information about this disease from personal experience which I think you might find useful.

First and foremost, DO NOT TAKE multivitamins or zinc supplements. COVID19 needs zink to complete the process of infecting the body, so if your body doesn't have a high level of zinc chances are you will only show minor symptoms if you catch the virus but it will stay at a flu like level and clears up after 2 weeks. but people with high levels of zinc in their system and people who have fatty liver have shown a %60 fatality rate, because a fatty liver reduces albumin in the body, so if you have a fatty liver you should take albumin supplements immediately! ( might need a visit to your doctor and a test to check the levels and if you are low on it the doctor will prescribe supplements for you)

I'm honestly not in a good mental state right now, but I'm trying to focus my attention on the market and keep myself busy with work... using the house-quarantine for catching up on delayed projects like finishing my educational material for my courses so even if I die from this disease I can at least put something of myself out there before it happens.

Stay safe out there

Thank you for all the kind messages and wishes.. I appreciate it.

Both me and my sister are feeling better. her new scans shows her lungs are healing and it seems like her body is responding well to the HIV medication.
for me, the symptoms were very mild and besides some sore throat and GI problems, I was fine and bounced back very quickly.

the situation in Iran is very horrible and the government is manipulating the statistics by not taking test from patients (or people who might have the virus) unless they stay in hospital for 3 days and their symptoms worsen (which anyone in their right mind will choose going back home instead of staying in a filthy hospital) and they still refuse to fully quarantine cities.
to me at least, it seems like the government wants the virus to spread more so they can eventually use the casualties as a leverage to get US and UN to lift sanctions on them.
but enough about this virus..

now that I'm feeling better I'm going to get back to doing more analysis of the charts and sharing them on this channel. I don't think sending out signals in a crashing market is a wise idea, which is why I have put the signal bot on hold for now, but I have been modifying my own system to make it more adjustable for any market condition, even if that condition is a crash, so I think I will be able to get back into sharing signals on the bot very soon too.

in the meantime I will keep everything I do in this channel and worry about branching things out later.
will be back with some charts soon.

stay safe out there

I have sent this info to a couple of people who asked me about the meds the doctor prescribed for my sister. I was hesitant about sharing the info here because I don't want people to hoard these medications out of fear like they are doing it with food and other supplies. but in case someone has a relative or loved one who has this disease and for whatever reason they don't have access to decent medical care,
here is what the docs perscribed for battling Covid19:

There are also two other medications that docs perscribe for people with heart conditions and people who have diabetes, I will send the picture of those drugs as well in the next post.

in case you can't read the labels! (sorry, forgot not everyone can read Persian! lol)

here are the names: Ventalex, Azithromycin, Flubiovir

This is what they prescribe for people with heart disease. (its extremely rare over here right now)

And this is the drug they give to people who have diabetes.