Thank you for all the kind messages and wishes.. I appreciate it.

Both me and my sister are feeling better. her new scans shows her lungs are healing and it seems like her body is responding well to the HIV medication.
for me, the symptoms were very mild and besides some sore throat and GI problems, I was fine and bounced back very quickly.

the situation in Iran is very horrible and the government is manipulating the statistics by not taking test from patients (or people who might have the virus) unless they stay in hospital for 3 days and their symptoms worsen (which anyone in their right mind will choose going back home instead of staying in a filthy hospital) and they still refuse to fully quarantine cities.
to me at least, it seems like the government wants the virus to spread more so they can eventually use the casualties as a leverage to get US and UN to lift sanctions on them.
but enough about this virus..

now that I'm feeling better I'm going to get back to doing more analysis of the charts and sharing them on this channel. I don't think sending out signals in a crashing market is a wise idea, which is why I have put the signal bot on hold for now, but I have been modifying my own system to make it more adjustable for any market condition, even if that condition is a crash, so I think I will be able to get back into sharing signals on the bot very soon too.

in the meantime I will keep everything I do in this channel and worry about branching things out later.
will be back with some charts soon.

stay safe out there

I have sent this info to a couple of people who asked me about the meds the doctor prescribed for my sister. I was hesitant about sharing the info here because I don't want people to hoard these medications out of fear like they are doing it with food and other supplies. but in case someone has a relative or loved one who has this disease and for whatever reason they don't have access to decent medical care,
here is what the docs perscribed for battling Covid19:

There are also two other medications that docs perscribe for people with heart conditions and people who have diabetes, I will send the picture of those drugs as well in the next post.

in case you can't read the labels! (sorry, forgot not everyone can read Persian! lol)

here are the names: Ventalex, Azithromycin, Flubiovir

This is what they prescribe for people with heart disease. (its extremely rare over here right now)

And this is the drug they give to people who have diabetes.

These will be my final posts about COVID19. I just thought there might be someone out there in a situation similar to mine, having a loved one with heart condition or diabetes in this current situation can be very nerve wracking, so maybe getting these drugs early could help reduce the stress.

The recovery rate is high and the most dangerious days are the first 7 days, so if someone you love has this virus and they are passed their first 7 days, chances are they will recover fully from it, so just keep them calm and don't let them stress over it.

take care of yourself out there.

Now back to business..

As you all already know, governments and central banks everywhere are trying as hard as they can to curb the effects of COVID19 on the economy. Trump managed to push the feds into continuing REPO and injecting more cash to prop up the stock market and he has ordered the energy sector to stack their strategic reserves with oil as much as possible. these efforts have created a massive demand for USD in the market which has caused all other currencies to dive against the USD along with precious metals like gold and silver.
the VIX index (aka fear index) soared to 75 on Thursday and it has closed above 50 for four straight days.
in my opinion its still too soon to label the efforts taken so far, as effective..
COVID19 is only one element of this whole mess... we also have the corporate debt bubble which is close to bursting with how low the oil prices have gotten lately (which is why I think the recent dive of BTC is a good opportunity to buy and hold for a year or two.. fighting debt with adding more debt has never worked before and with feds printing so much USD, BTC is going to appreciate A LOT in the next 24 months)


for next week, I'm going to just stick to sharing pure technical analysis for analyzing the charts and highlighting important price levels, sharing the different scenarios I can see the market moving in, and just let you guys judge things on your own.


Have a nice weekend

Alright, I got some messages from members asking me about US stock market and which stocks should they invest in to take advantage of the low prices..

Here is the thing, while I firmly believe we shouldn't freak out about cronavirus in terms of thinking it could be the end of the world (cause it isn't!) we still should be very mindful of its effect on businesses.
Like I heard from a couple people they are thinking about investing in cruiseship companies or Shell..
while I understand the reasoning behind it, I think you shouldn't just assume the pandemic won't affect those companies at all.

For example, Shell, although its share prices have been falling hard, buying those shares is in no way a guarantee for earning profits (whether in form of dividends or shares appreciating in value) because Shell is going to be one of the companies that will get hit the hardest from Saudi and Russian fight over market share. its Shell's market share they are trying to win back, and they will win it back for sure, now that Saudis are pumping oil in the market at $25 per barrel.
the Saudis are capable of keeping oil at $25 for a long time because they are still selling it with a very small profit. so they are sacrificing their own profit to win back market share and it will be successful. the only thing that can change this situation is the russians and americans sitting behind a negotiation table and come up with a deal where they give Saudis a win, in order to keep themselves from losing all their market share.

the same goes for any other company you want to invest in.. don't just think of the fall as a temporary thing.. we will be dealing with virus in the next 12 to 18 months... so if the company you want to invest in has too much debt and can't stay floating for 2 years without making profits, then investing in it will only cause you to lose money (whether in form of having shares of a company that declares bankruptcy, or in form of buying shares of a high dividend paying company and they stop paying dividends)
you should follow Warren buffet way of value investing. buy shares of companies that you think people will start using their services in the next 2 months (their services won't be affected much by the pandemic and people will keep using it)
otherwise, if you invest in companies that are affected heavily from the pandemic, then you should know that the investment will be a long term one.

With trump suggesting retail companies like Amazon and Apple to close down their shops due to covid19 spreading in US, dow jones index is likely to open with a big gap down (-1170 pips)

Oil and USD likely to gap down while Gold and other currencies likely to gap up when market opens.

#DOWJONES 🇺🇸: 21870 (-1170 pip)
#DAX GER30 🇩🇪: 9225 (-325 pip)
#FTSE 🇬🇧 : 5315 (-335 pip)

Some of US senators basically begging the Saudi Prince to change his approach towards oil market

CFO Khalid al-Dabbagh said Aramco was “very comfortable” with oil at $30 a barrel and would still be able to meet its dividend commitments and shareholder expectations at that price.

Credit market is melting out of the fear that companies hit with COVID19 will not be able to repay their debts (understandable) and if oil prices stay at 24-30 dollar range, the corporate debt bubble is going to burst next. oil makes up 11% of the HYG junk bond ETF. oil impacts corporate credit. $86 billion due now through 2024 .. most of it junk status.


with AI being behind the wheel in financial markets, analyzing data and trading based on it. I wonder if the governments will be able to prevent a complete melt down of world economy?
we'll have to wait and see, I guess..

with all of this in mind, I still believe this crash is a good opportunity for everyone to build a decent stock portfolio and reap the benefits of it in 3-5 years.
you just have to analyze the companies you want to invest in a bit differently this time. look at corporate debt more than anything. don't pay attention to dividends first, you don't want a high dividend paying company that can file chapter eleven in less than 12 months or simply stop paying dividends. you want to invest in companies with a bright future and manageable debt.
those are the ones you should want to buy when they are dirt cheap.

here is a good list of questions you should ask yourself before investing in a company:
How long they have been in business?
How are they making money? what is their main product? how popular is that product?
Is the “need” for the product going to be there in 10 years?
Which companies are their biggest competitor?
Is there something innovative that sets them apart from the competition?
How sustainable is the business model?


And if you want to see if the share price of a company have tanked as much as possible or if there is still room for it to fall more, all you need to do is to investigate their main product and see if it has parts that are going to be delayed or become unavailable due to COVID19 lockdowns. is the delay already priced in? or will the effect of it be shown later?

do your due diligence. don't just buy every dip thinking this crash is like the one in 08 where market recovered in a year. back then while the market collapsed, the everyday life of people wasn't affected so recovery happened quicker after the government stimulus was implemented. this time, this virus is going to affect our day to day living for a while.. and this time people aren't willing to just let the government bail out banks and corporations easily.

with recent rate cuts a lot of people are looking to move their money into stocks, so I thought it couldn't hurt to put this post up as a warning.


If you have a +$500K stock portfolio, you can reach me directly (@Linorth) for consultation on it or for help in diversification.

Eight giant U.S. banks said they would access Fed’s discount window, in a move meant to remove the stigma of using it. The banks including JPMC, BoA & Citi will use facility to “reassure financial institutions of all sizes” that they can tap it too.

___
Apparently in America socialism is not OK when it's done for the people, but when its for the bankers, suddenly its heroic! lol

The feds injecting $1.5T in market has surprised everyone and the reason for the shock is quite obvious.

A government whose domestic debt amounts to about $ 23.5 trillion
And its gross domestic product (GDP) is less than $ 22 trillion

how can they confirm the injection of several trillions of dollars into the market in one week?
When the Dollar is not backed by gold, how can US government inject such amount of unsecured liquidity in a market that is crashing?

All of this is happening while there are talks of cutting back or possibly stopping tax income which is a big part of the government income

This is the biggest gambling move from US government in the history of its existence.

This is the exact same reason some US senators are objecting the plan.

The next government that gets behind the wheel after the 2020 election is going to be the heir of the greatest challenges in the history of world economy.

Steven Manuchen (Secretary of the Treasury):

Corona virus outbreaks could lead to US unemployment rate rising by 20%!
(Things are obviously way worse than previously thought)

#EURUSD - Weekly

Assuming the demand for USD stays high for the first 2 quarters of 2020, I think we can expect the chart moving down towards the PRZ area (highlighted blue area)
I have also put in the important support/resistance lines in there.

will add more daily and 4h analysis once I post all the weekly charts for major pairs.

#GBPUSD - Weekly

For GBP things are a bit different as we have entered uncharted territory.
I think with brexit and coronavirus teaming up against England's economy, its realistic to expect that GBP will move towards parity with USD.
of course this also depends on negotiations with Europe and whether or not there will be a big government bailout for businesses in UK.

either way, I can see 0.95 as the ultimate target for the bears in the market. but of course there is going to be a lot of resistance on major resistance levels along the way.

#USDJPY - Weekly

For this pair, things are a bit tricky because while the USD is in high demand right now, JPY is a safe haven currency. so in short term USD might overpower JPY, but once the money starts to move towards safe haven currencies and commodities like gold, we might see this pair diving for the PRZ area at 85.000

I have used red arrows for the bearish case and green arrows for bullish case.

keep in mind that even for the bearish case we might still see a touch of PRZ area at 117.500 before moving down towards 85.000 (I just didn't want to draw the same arrows in two colors)

#WTICrude #Oil - Weekly

Due to lowered demand because of Coronavirus and increased supply by Saudi Arabia in the price-war with Russia, oil is likely going to range between $19 and $35 for at least another 3 months.
I see $13 as the floor for the price of WTI.