with all of this in mind, I still believe this crash is a good opportunity for everyone to build a decent stock portfolio and reap the benefits of it in 3-5 years.
you just have to analyze the companies you want to invest in a bit differently this time. look at corporate debt more than anything. don't pay attention to dividends first, you don't want a high dividend paying company that can file chapter eleven in less than 12 months or simply stop paying dividends. you want to invest in companies with a bright future and manageable debt.
those are the ones you should want to buy when they are dirt cheap.

here is a good list of questions you should ask yourself before investing in a company:
How long they have been in business?
How are they making money? what is their main product? how popular is that product?
Is the “need” for the product going to be there in 10 years?
Which companies are their biggest competitor?
Is there something innovative that sets them apart from the competition?
How sustainable is the business model?


And if you want to see if the share price of a company have tanked as much as possible or if there is still room for it to fall more, all you need to do is to investigate their main product and see if it has parts that are going to be delayed or become unavailable due to COVID19 lockdowns. is the delay already priced in? or will the effect of it be shown later?

do your due diligence. don't just buy every dip thinking this crash is like the one in 08 where market recovered in a year. back then while the market collapsed, the everyday life of people wasn't affected so recovery happened quicker after the government stimulus was implemented. this time, this virus is going to affect our day to day living for a while.. and this time people aren't willing to just let the government bail out banks and corporations easily.

with recent rate cuts a lot of people are looking to move their money into stocks, so I thought it couldn't hurt to put this post up as a warning.


If you have a +$500K stock portfolio, you can reach me directly (@Linorth) for consultation on it or for help in diversification.

Eight giant U.S. banks said they would access Fed’s discount window, in a move meant to remove the stigma of using it. The banks including JPMC, BoA & Citi will use facility to “reassure financial institutions of all sizes” that they can tap it too.

___
Apparently in America socialism is not OK when it's done for the people, but when its for the bankers, suddenly its heroic! lol

The feds injecting $1.5T in market has surprised everyone and the reason for the shock is quite obvious.

A government whose domestic debt amounts to about $ 23.5 trillion
And its gross domestic product (GDP) is less than $ 22 trillion

how can they confirm the injection of several trillions of dollars into the market in one week?
When the Dollar is not backed by gold, how can US government inject such amount of unsecured liquidity in a market that is crashing?

All of this is happening while there are talks of cutting back or possibly stopping tax income which is a big part of the government income

This is the biggest gambling move from US government in the history of its existence.

This is the exact same reason some US senators are objecting the plan.

The next government that gets behind the wheel after the 2020 election is going to be the heir of the greatest challenges in the history of world economy.

Steven Manuchen (Secretary of the Treasury):

Corona virus outbreaks could lead to US unemployment rate rising by 20%!
(Things are obviously way worse than previously thought)

#EURUSD - Weekly

Assuming the demand for USD stays high for the first 2 quarters of 2020, I think we can expect the chart moving down towards the PRZ area (highlighted blue area)
I have also put in the important support/resistance lines in there.

will add more daily and 4h analysis once I post all the weekly charts for major pairs.

#GBPUSD - Weekly

For GBP things are a bit different as we have entered uncharted territory.
I think with brexit and coronavirus teaming up against England's economy, its realistic to expect that GBP will move towards parity with USD.
of course this also depends on negotiations with Europe and whether or not there will be a big government bailout for businesses in UK.

either way, I can see 0.95 as the ultimate target for the bears in the market. but of course there is going to be a lot of resistance on major resistance levels along the way.

#USDJPY - Weekly

For this pair, things are a bit tricky because while the USD is in high demand right now, JPY is a safe haven currency. so in short term USD might overpower JPY, but once the money starts to move towards safe haven currencies and commodities like gold, we might see this pair diving for the PRZ area at 85.000

I have used red arrows for the bearish case and green arrows for bullish case.

keep in mind that even for the bearish case we might still see a touch of PRZ area at 117.500 before moving down towards 85.000 (I just didn't want to draw the same arrows in two colors)

#WTICrude #Oil - Weekly

Due to lowered demand because of Coronavirus and increased supply by Saudi Arabia in the price-war with Russia, oil is likely going to range between $19 and $35 for at least another 3 months.
I see $13 as the floor for the price of WTI.

#SP500 - long term view

I see the highlighted red area as the current supply area and I wouldn't think about buying a dip (even for a corrective move) before it touches 1900-2000 highlighted blue area.

If people stand in the way of yet another government bailout, I can see it even touching 1575-1710 area as the companies with too much debt just get wiped out.

#dowjones - long term view

Similar to S&P500, I think we might see a corrective move from the 17000-18000 highlighted in blue area towards the supply area (highlighted in red)

but I can still see it deflating towards that big area highlighted blue at the bottom in a worst case scenario situation.

As the feds are injecting more dollars into market a significant amount of money is moving towards gold!
spreads have widened in most brokers as much as 100 pips!

be careful out there.

Due to halting of mining in gold mines in south africa, canada and switzerland it seems like the demand for gold has skyrocketed and some banks in netherlands, switzerland and germany which provided purchases of gold, silver and platinum to their clients will disable those services for their clients from Friday.

So its not far fetched to assume something similar could happen in most forex brokers that provided trading of Gold and silver to their clients as a CFD.

Its still very likely for us to witness a surge in gold prices next week.


(This is not a signal for buying gold, just sharing info, thats all)

Guys I really wanted to start sharing signals on lower timeframes like H1 this week. But I know that a lot of liquidity providers and market making brokers are stop hunting the retail traders with widening of spreads mostly when economic data comes out on news events we have this week.

For now the general sentiment in the market is that despite all the QE and credit lines feds are throwing at the market, the USD scarcity is still there.
I think the demand for USD will remain high for at least another month or two.. so I would keep the bullish bias on USD for trades in lower time frames.

I will post analysis of charts in lower time-frames like H1.. but I still dont want to issue signals for trading. Just merely sharing technical analysis of the charts alone.


All the subscribers of my signal service (@linorth_bot) will have their subscriptions renewed for as long as the signal service stays inactive, before I start sending out signals again. So no need to worry if you got a message from the bot telling you that your subscription has ran out, it will get renewed once I start things up again.


Thank you for the support.

#GBPUSD - Daily

This is how I'm planning on swinging this pair. the two blue boxes are the PRZ levels I have for this pair as the supply levels. so I'm entering part of my position here and I will add the second part on the top blue box, with my stop being behind 1.37 (Red line)

the ultimate target for my positions is that blue box down there, but if price dives down from the first supply level, I will get out on the pivot point at 1.14

but if price touches the top supply area before falling, I will move my target down to the midline of the blue box at the bottom which is 1.1 price area

#EURUSD - Daily

this is how I see EURUSD moving midterm.
For this one I changed the color of boxes to show supply levels with red and target levels with green.

Saudis are trying to raise their oil exports to 10.7M barrels per day, in March they reached 9M barrels per day.

I personally believe this move from Saudis is more about bankrupting Iran than taking back market share from US or Russia (even tho that will become the cherry on top of the sundae) and I'm guessing Trump is on board with the plan as well.
it ties in well with the rest of events in Middle East, considering the fact that the US war with Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq, syria and yemen has already started (Israel is currently carrying out their attacks in Syria)
it seems to me US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are teaming up to attack all militia groups backed by Iran inside Iraq, Yemen and Syria. so far it seems like Israel will attack in Syria while Saudis will attack in Yemen and US takes care of Iraq.
There is also a possibility of them attacking Iran in near future. our military bases are on alert mode right now.

we should keep an eye on this conflict as it can affect oil prices (in case saudi arabia oil facilities are hit in attacks by those militia groups)

The US embassy in Iraq has been evacuated from diplomatic personnel and military troops have replaced them.

About 2 hours left on that 72 hour ultimatum US had given Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq

ifs and buts were candy and nuts..


I think this at least shows even US isn't comfortable with oil prices remaining this low.
still, Trump meeting with CEOs of big companies in energy sector on Friday, will make it clear whether the plan is to give the energy sector a government bailout so they can survive the low prices until Iran government is completely bankrupt, or if the plan is to pull up prices to a point where even american companies can keep themselves floating during the covid-19 winter. (which I think would be around 35-40 price for WTI crude)

oversupply is still a big problem in the market with demand being as low as it is. so we shouldn't get excited about news like this one.

Saudis already have called trump's claim of reducing 10M barrels an exaggeration.
I think now that they have pulled the trigger on selling oil on huge discounts, they will keep going until they can at least win back the market share from Russia and US.
I think its getting more and more likely for US and Saudi Arabia to build a replacement for OPEC+
they don't need russia or other gulf nations to decide the price for the market, when Saudis can pomp as much as the market needs and US has the arm to force others into compliance.

#oil - 4H

despite all the news of talks between US, Russia and Saudis to control the oil market.. and despite trump tweeting in full force in support of American companies in energy sector, we only had a small jump in price of crude.

After Saudis now Kuwait, UAE and Iraq are joining in on the oil war. Kuwait has announced they will start exporting 3.5M barrels starting in April which is a historic move for them.

I think for crude, we won't see anything more than ranging between $20 and $40 price for the rest of 2020 (and that's being optimistic!)