#GBPUSD - Daily

This is how I'm planning on swinging this pair. the two blue boxes are the PRZ levels I have for this pair as the supply levels. so I'm entering part of my position here and I will add the second part on the top blue box, with my stop being behind 1.37 (Red line)

the ultimate target for my positions is that blue box down there, but if price dives down from the first supply level, I will get out on the pivot point at 1.14

but if price touches the top supply area before falling, I will move my target down to the midline of the blue box at the bottom which is 1.1 price area

#EURUSD - Daily

this is how I see EURUSD moving midterm.
For this one I changed the color of boxes to show supply levels with red and target levels with green.

Saudis are trying to raise their oil exports to 10.7M barrels per day, in March they reached 9M barrels per day.

I personally believe this move from Saudis is more about bankrupting Iran than taking back market share from US or Russia (even tho that will become the cherry on top of the sundae) and I'm guessing Trump is on board with the plan as well.
it ties in well with the rest of events in Middle East, considering the fact that the US war with Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq, syria and yemen has already started (Israel is currently carrying out their attacks in Syria)
it seems to me US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are teaming up to attack all militia groups backed by Iran inside Iraq, Yemen and Syria. so far it seems like Israel will attack in Syria while Saudis will attack in Yemen and US takes care of Iraq.
There is also a possibility of them attacking Iran in near future. our military bases are on alert mode right now.

we should keep an eye on this conflict as it can affect oil prices (in case saudi arabia oil facilities are hit in attacks by those militia groups)

The US embassy in Iraq has been evacuated from diplomatic personnel and military troops have replaced them.

About 2 hours left on that 72 hour ultimatum US had given Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq

ifs and buts were candy and nuts..


I think this at least shows even US isn't comfortable with oil prices remaining this low.
still, Trump meeting with CEOs of big companies in energy sector on Friday, will make it clear whether the plan is to give the energy sector a government bailout so they can survive the low prices until Iran government is completely bankrupt, or if the plan is to pull up prices to a point where even american companies can keep themselves floating during the covid-19 winter. (which I think would be around 35-40 price for WTI crude)

oversupply is still a big problem in the market with demand being as low as it is. so we shouldn't get excited about news like this one.

Saudis already have called trump's claim of reducing 10M barrels an exaggeration.
I think now that they have pulled the trigger on selling oil on huge discounts, they will keep going until they can at least win back the market share from Russia and US.
I think its getting more and more likely for US and Saudi Arabia to build a replacement for OPEC+
they don't need russia or other gulf nations to decide the price for the market, when Saudis can pomp as much as the market needs and US has the arm to force others into compliance.

#oil - 4H

despite all the news of talks between US, Russia and Saudis to control the oil market.. and despite trump tweeting in full force in support of American companies in energy sector, we only had a small jump in price of crude.

After Saudis now Kuwait, UAE and Iraq are joining in on the oil war. Kuwait has announced they will start exporting 3.5M barrels starting in April which is a historic move for them.

I think for crude, we won't see anything more than ranging between $20 and $40 price for the rest of 2020 (and that's being optimistic!)

First target reached. We might see a correction before it continues falling towards the second target.

I think parity with USD is guaranteed at this point. And if the whole block falls apart, the fall might not stop there either!

just in case you still weren't clear on how bad things have gotten due to Covid-19 lockdowns.

News of Boris Johnson being taken to Intensive Care Unit has Pushed the GBP down again.

Despite the Feds injecting USD in short term REPO (they injected 13.5B yesterday), there is not enough USD in the market to meet the high demand. USD is expected to continue its climb in the next couple of weeks.
Gold is also likely to continue its climb while the mining remains shut down everywhere and US economic data shows more and more weakness.

Seems like everyone were treating Covid19 as if it was just a storm, but now they are realizing that its going to be a winter they need to survive.

#WTI #Oil
After much negotiations, Opec+ members finally agreed to 9.7M barrels reduction in their productions and heads of G20 also agreed to 3.2M barrels per day reduction.. together that is 12.9M barrels reduction which is a significant number and can support prices and bring them to a place where major players in the oil market can still stay in business (+30$ per barrel).
of course we have to wait and see how much this can lift prices in the face of low demand caused by coronavirus.

sources from opec believe that the total volume of production cuts and the purchases of new buyers in the market tomorrow is about 20M barrels per day.
(the excess oil in the market was about 30 to 35 million barrels so a 20M reduction is good news and can over time stabilize the prices more. either way this info confirms that the oil market has already seen its bottom)

#US500Index
I think it has peaked the euphoria state and now its going to continue the fall.

Stop behind 2900
First target 2772 (final target 2200 for me)

Hit the first target. But considering the weak US consumer data, it still has room to fall down more.

In case you want to keep it going, next target is 2717
Then we might see a bit correction up towards 2770 and then fall will probably aim for 2670 next.

There is still 15 minutes left before US market opens, considering the fact that consumer data weakness was historic I think we are going to witness wild fluctuations, so make sure you are not over leveraging on your positions.

there was a typo in my post. I had written 1717 instead of 2717. fixed it now. sorry!

It jumped back up towards my stop on it and got really close to it, after trumps comment on allowing governors to reopen their states in an effort to open up the economy..

We already know most of the governers dont want to reopen anytime soon. Trump is basically putting the decision on them so he cant be blamed for the outcomes of reopening the states early. If governors dont do it, then the blame for its effect on the economy will be placed on them and if they do open the states for business and more people die because of the virus they will get blamed for the deaths instead of trump.

But the thing is that the majority of people dont want to go back to work in the current condition and if they are asked to be back they will expect either a hazard pay or more health benefits from their employers and since most of those companies are already on the verge of bankrupcy they wont be able to increase wages or keep most of their staff employed without a government bailout anyways so its likely that we will see more protests from workers and a series of layoffs from big corporations despite reopening the businesses.

Eitherway, the economic data shows that we still havent even gotten close to the stock market bottoming out. The market is still in a bear phase and we will see the bear run continue over the next couple of weeks.

Im adding to my position (added today on 2875) and widening my stop placing it behind 3030.30 (to make sure its at a safe distance behind 61.8 fibo line, in case some spread manipulation happens) and will keep the shorts running for the forthcoming fall.

I think even if s&p500 closes up this week, it will gap down next week when we get more news on the states reopening or not.

#WTICrude #Oil

Despite the 20m barrel cuts from the 35m extra to demand the oil prices kept falling to their historic lows. Today the future contracts will expire and most exchanges have increased their rates a lot (some to even $7 per barrels)
So we should wait to see what happens tomorrow once these contracts are settled and we get close to 1th of May (the deadline for the agreement of opec+ coming into effect) and see how different the spot price and futures of oil are going to get.

From next week the feds are going to cut the volume of their daily cash injections from $30b to 15b!

In case you want to read more on this subject, this is a good article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-cut-pace-treasury-buying-again-only-15-billion-day