Everyone wants a piece of Bosnia ❤️

🌐 Formation of new military alliances in the Balkans; a sign of NATO’s decline

🔹Recently, Kosovo, Albania, and Croatia have formed a military alliance. The aim of this move is to counter the military cooperation between Serbia and Hungary, which pushed Kosovo to seek new allies to guarantee its security. This raises questions as to why NATO and the European Union have failed to act as security providers in the Balkans and why countries in the region are moving toward alliance-building and bilateral cooperation.

💢 Current situation of tensions in the Balkans

🔸In 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia with the support of Western countries. This led to a continuous conflict between Serbia and Kosovo that persists to this day. At present, Kosovo is still not recognized by many countries and faces obstacles to joining international organizations; for this reason, it sought membership in NATO and the EU as a way out of political isolation through alignment with major powers. The geopolitical confrontations between Russia and the EU have further intensified and complicated this crisis. Relations between Kosovo and Serbia have not advanced toward normalization but have instead grown more tense.

💢 The objective of the tripartite alliance

🔸The objective declared by officials after the alliance was signed on March 18, 2025, included “strengthening the defense and security industry, enhancing military interoperability through joint training and exercises, countering hybrid threats, and reinforcing strategic security and support for Euro-Atlantic integration.” However, in practice, the alliance was formed because Kosovo lost hope in the EU resolving its crisis with Serbia and in gaining membership in the Union itself. Consequently, Kosovo sought to draw closer to like-minded neighbors in order to secure new allies and enhance its regional standing and legitimacy.

🔸Over the years, the European Union has mediated with the aim of normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and it brokered the Ohrid agreements between the two sides. However, these agreements have not led to real normalization, as both parties continue to fail to honor their commitments. Therefore, Kosovo has attempted, through this alliance, to build a powerful bloc against Serbia and achieve relative deterrence. This initiative is also an effort to strengthen its regional and international legitimacy with the goal of full recognition by international organizations and other states. Additionally, Kosovo seeks to enhance its defensive capabilities—particularly in the field of drones—so that in a potential conflict with Serbia, it will not be dependent on NATO or other countries, but rather capable of operating drones independently.

💢 The future of NATO and the EU in the Balkans

🔸NATO’s presence in the Balkans from the beginning has generated more tensions and expanded the conflict from the subregional level to the international stage. The formation of this new tripartite alliance, countering the Serbia-Hungary alliance, highlights Kosovo’s frustration with NATO’s ineffective support, especially given the decline of U.S. commitment to the organization. With growing tensions between the U.S. and the EU, Washington’s announced reduction of support, and more than a decade of unsuccessful EU mediation, Kosovo has shifted its approach: rather than pursuing NATO and EU membership, it has turned to alliances with its neighbors—leading to this tripartite pact.

💢 Conclusion

🔸The conflict between Kosovo and Serbia has long been one of the main points of contention in the Balkans, and due to changes in the international order, tensions surrounding the region are on the rise. Mediation by supranational alliances such as NATO and the European Union is no longer sufficient, and states in the region are moving toward creating military alliances with their neighbors to ensure security.

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✅ These alliances are intended to provide relative deterrence against the opposing side, but they only fuel greater perceptions of threat. Ultimately, unless both sides reach an agreement with the involvement of external actors, especially NATO, there will be no prospects for peace or de-escalation in the region.

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The analysis was published on the Tehran Institute's Telegram channel. You can find the original post here.

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Thanks to our dear friend for having shared his work with us and for trusting Balkan Spectator as his Balkan news source!

This was a bold move.

CIA World Factbook recently revised Bosnia's population to 3.7 million. No clue how they got to that number. The 2013 census puts the population around 2.9 million.

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Tells you a lot