The concerning update from Orikhiv:

Russian Milblogger Anatolyy Radov's claim of full control of Novopavlivka is false. However, there is indications of high activity of Russian assault groups through Novopavlivka and all the way to the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhya highway.

I'm not willing to put any definitive Russian control, as i don't like to be pre-emptive, but there is evidence suggesting a substantial deterioration in the Ukrainian defence of the western flank of Orikhiv. I'll continue to working to clarify the extent of Russian advances here, as the grey zone may not necessarily represent the situation accurately. All i've been able to determine is that there is some significant destabilisation of the Ukrainian lines.

There has since been no confirmation of this. Kadyrov is likely still alive.

Velykyy Burluk direction, Kharkiv oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued their localised counterattacks in and around Dvorichna, aimed at reducing the Russian bridgehead over the Oskil river.

As a result, Ukrinian forces recaptured the village of Fyholivka, Kharkiv oblast.

An update from Orikhiv:

After some further clarification, this grey zone is a more accurate representation of the situation.

Russian assault groups are storming Novopavlivka and infiltrating through the houses between Yurkivka and Novopavlivka.

Russian strategic bomber movements seem to indicate no imminent threat of a combined missile strike on Ukraine for at least the next few days.

According to monitoring channels, the probability of a missile strike on Ukraine for the next couple of days is 1%.

Tupolev 95 and Tupolev 160 movements are more indicative of a buildup for another attack over the weekend.

Genuinely, how did the Russian 144th Motor Rifle Division manage to fuck up so hard in Lyman...

Around 420 km² of advances and grey-zones made since early-2025 have been cleared by Ukrainian forces, most of which was done in the last 4 months (some smaller clearing operations were ongoing before May).

And the Ukrainian advance continued eastward to the Zherebets River, which they have already reached at multiple points.

Lyman direction, Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian forces have continued their counterattacks following the Russian withdrawal from the areas of Zelena Dolyna and Shandryholove.

Russian forces continue pulling back and offering little resistance, as it becomes clear that positions on the western bank of the Zherebets river are untenable. A significant glide bomb and artillery bombardment campaign of the advancing AFU has begun, in order to capitalise on the opportunity to inflict sizeable attrition.

As a result, the village of Myrne has been retaken by Ukraine.

A reminder that advances and attrition are independent variables.

Although generally, Russia is advancing in areas where they have inflicted enough attrition to cause a localised break in Ukrainian defences.

The reason Ukrainian advances don’t necessarily indicate successful attrition inflicted by Ukrainecis because of the differing tactics and strategy, whereby Russia has previously shown willingness to conduct elastic defence, using their superior firepower to inflict attrition on the advancing AFU (Robotyne as a great example).

Ukraine cannot conduct an effective elastic defence for two reasons: 1. It would be a bad political look for the Zelenskyy government internally and on the international stage to lose large swathes of territory, and 2. They cannot launch multiple hundreds of glide bombs and multiple thousands of artillery and MLRS fire as Russia can.

That’s why the attritional balance sits decisively with Russia. FPV drones mask attrition very well, but they cannot reverse it. The collapse will be the point where all the “built-up” underlying attrition is suddenly released all at once. There are many great analogies for this issue that i can also use, but i don’t want to drag the post out too long.

Druzhkivka direction, Donetsk oblast.

As a result of Russian forces squeezing Ukrainian presence out of the pocket between Novodmytrivka and Virolyubivka, The villages of Chervone and Podilske fell to Russia.

Borova direction, Luhansk oblast.

Ukrainian forces continue their offensive operations toward the Zherebets river.

They entered Novolyubivka and pushed all the way to the river on the western side of Balka Zhuravka.

As a result of these Ukrainian counterattacks, they now control an additional 13 square kilometres of Luhansk oblast, bringing their total to 73 square kilometres.

(But i thought according to the Russian MoD, all of Luhansk oblast had fallen??)

Possible Kalibr cruise missile launches from Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

Unconfirmed.

A residential apartment building was struck by a Banderol cruise missile in Odesa.

No information on civilian casualties yet...

Alleged aftermath of the Banderol jet UAV strike on a residential building in Odesa.

The 3M54 Kalibr cruise missiles should enter Kherson oblast in approx the next 20 minutes.

A group of Kalibrs impacted Zaporizhzhya city moments ago.

MiG-31K airborne. Kinzhal threat!!!

Ballistic threat from Kursk

2 Zircon hypersonic cruises to Kyiv

Disappeared.

More Zircons to Brovary

edit: Iskanders