Nil threat. There has not been any recorded launches.

I can't help but express only careful optimism about the colossal Ukrainian gains.

Russian army group Zapad is experiencing huge issues, sure. Russia may need to mobilise again as their own front becomes thinner, sure. I think there is a reasonable chance they do so.
But a few considerations: Ukraine have committed significant manpower to Lyman for nearly 6 months now, with counterattacks first beginning at Ridkodub and Zelena Dolyna. Now, although the rapid advance from Mykolaivka to Ray-Oleksandrivka and Kalenyky seems like it was a blitz, this has occured as a result of 1-2 weeks of offensive actions.

Ukraine is conducting this without significant aerial support, and the previous counterattacks leading up to this point were affected by the exact opposite, with Sentinel imagery showing huge concentrations of Russian glide bomb strikes on the attacking Ukrainians around Lyman for months on end.

Yet, Ukraine is also counterattacking north of Kupyansk, in south Donetsk oblast near Komar, has redeployed units to Orikhiv direction, and is holding almost the whole front steady right now.

What do we know about attrition? It is a measure of the strategic balance, not necessarily tactical developments and especially not frontline gains. A country can be winning a war of attrition whilst losing ground, or vice versa.

All the indications point to Russia having a huge attritional advantage. 5x the population, Vehicle losses, glide bomb strikes, domestic production of instruments of attrition like artillery, MLRS and FPV drones. Russia still recruits in excess of 20-30k per month through financial incentives. Ukraine relies entirely on forced conscription, which has been ramping up. Even the Polish PM, who has an incentive to lie in favour of Ukraine, admitted that losses for Ukraine recently are 27k killed and wounded per month.

Absolutely everything points toward the fact that this isn't an inversion of the strategic, holistic direction of the war.

What can we learn from history? Well, in World War 1, as the German Empire was beginning to suffer catastrophic manpower and equipment shortages relative to the Western Allies, general Erich Von Ludendorff decided to launch a desperate offensive, throwing everything they had left at the Western Allies prior to the arrival of US forces on the front. This became known as the Ludendorff offensive, and German "stormtroopers" made substantial gains before being eventually absorbed as the Allies methodically fell back. Eventully, the Germans ran out of steam, and the front began rapidly rolling back right toward Germany itself. Germany surrendered before the Allies stepped foot on their home territory.

Warfare has changed alot, but the fundamental principles of attrition haven't. Ukraine is unable to fight asymetrically and conduct an elastic defence due to political constraints. The AFU is being worn down faster than Russia can be.

The question is, where is it all coming from for Ukraine? How are they able to conduct these offensives, despite the very decisive attrition that has already been inflicted upon them and is continuing to be so?

The AFU is an extremely brave and professional fighting force. They, on paper, have alot of manpower left, they could lower mobilisation age to 23, 21, 18, and could likely continue holding the front.

But, lets go back to the lessons from history. The Imperial German Army collapsed long before they physically ran out of manpower entirely. They collapsed when the overall long-term built up attrition since 1914 that had been supressed, all came at once. Attrition is abstract and extremely complex. Its alot more than just one number or a couple of equations.

I'd like to quote WillyOAM, a former Australian soldier who has spent time in Ukraine and has extensive, extensive knowledge on warfare.

As he sat in a high-rise building in Kramatorsk in May 2022, he said "This war is always on the eve of ending. It could be tommorow, it could be in 5 years".

Attrition is in some ways a mysterious force, and we could wake up in 2 weeks to find Russian armoured columns rolling down highways toward Kyiv. We could also wake up on a random Sunday in 2034 to see that the case. We simply have too many unknown variables to predict when a collapse will occur.

One thing i can say with some certainty: With Russia likely to conduct more border incursions, including into Chernihiv, something will give way eventually. Potentially extremely dramatically, or subtly spread across the whole front. Look what happened when Russia launched their 2024 Kharkiv incursion: Russia swept through Hirnyk, Novohrodivka, Kurakhove, and Selydove due to Ukraine being stretched thin.

But the point of this post is that we need to keep in mind at all times the overall, holistic trajectory of the war.

A Russian Sukhoi 34 aircraft is launching glide bombs toward Mykolaiv city.

Please heed all warnings!

There are also Russian strike UAVs currently targeting the eastern suburbs of Kyiv, including DVRZ and Brovary.

Russian forces, as we speak, are carrying out emergency counterattacks trying to reverse the deteriorating situation south of the Siverskyy Donets river, east of Mykolaivka.

The situation is extremely confusing and complex. The Russian assault groups scrambled to this area have likely reentered Starodubivka and approached Mykolaivka again.

Russian infiltrators are also trying to get behind Ukrainian lines that they believe to be poorly consolidated east of Lyman.

Things are about to get extremely intriguing....

I’d like to say a sincere, grateful and honest thank you to everyone for 5000 followers on twitter.

I started my TG channel in July 2025 and my twitter account around the same time. That means I’ve been around the information space for 14 months, and it’s safe to say I’ve learned a lot.

I started my journey being entirely neutral, before I was pro-Russia for a period of time. As I opened my mind to differing perspectives from either side, this year I settled on being pro-Ukraine, sympathising with the struggle of the Ukrainian people against the imperialism of Russia and against the exploitative influence of the West.

Amidst the absolute tragedy of this war, the information space has allowed me to find a sense of community and some of my closest friends. As someone who struggled significantly with loneliness and bullying through high school, feeling like I was worthless, etc., the purpose I’ve been able to find in my journalism has helped me so much.

Love you all. I'm very emotional right now.

Counting down the top 10 clips of the Ukraine war:

Day 3, number 8:

Ukrainian pickup truck engages in extreme high-speed evasion from a Russian FPV drone strike, with a narrow near miss

3 May 2026

This clip, from @Osinttechnical, shows a Ukrainian pickup truck on a supply mission in an unidentified part of the frontline. A Russian FPV drone identifies the target and attempts to strike it, missing by what appears to be just a few metres as the Ukrainian soldier on the back of the truck attempts to shoot down the drone with his rifle. The drone crashes into the treeline parallel to the road, sparing the life of the Ukrainians by a matter of millisecond-precise timing.

The truck accelerates to what appears to be a very high speed, likely well in excess of 100km/h, as part of standard FPV drone evasion procedure due to the limited speed of FPV drones.

What makes this video immensely intriguing is the true horror of drone warfare. Even in a vehicle travelling extremely quickly, modern FPV drones can sometimes keep pace.

In the case of elite drone operator units such as Rubikon, many FPV operators are very skilled in judging velocity and intercept angles to hit fast moving targets as well, taking the lives of soldiers even further out of their own hands.

According to people i’ve spoken to, sadly, some AFU killed are not by the drone itself, but rather by crashing their vehicles into trees at high speed in evasion attempts.

Due to its glimpse into the horrifying reality of drone warfare, this clip takes the #8 spot as the craziest video of the war thus far.

Dobropillya direction, Donetsk oblast.

Russian forces have completely recaptured the village of Myrne, as part of its 2nd battle.

27/9/2026

Eastern flank of Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhya oblast.

Ukrainian forces have completely recaptured the village of Hirke, as part of its 3rd distinct battle.

This village has now changed hands for a fourth time.

27/9/2026

4 Russian jet-powered strike UAVs toward Slavutych, Kyiv/Chernihiv oblast.

3 of these UAVs were shot down. 1 is on course for Litky (Kyiv oblast).

The last UAV was shot down.

The Ukrainian National Guard received a second batch of 10 MRAPs produced by "Ukrainian Armored Vehicles". Another 80 are expected to be delivered in the contract. https://t.me/MachineryInfo/1670

Given geolocated vehicle losses, these 90 MRAPs will quite literally be gone in a month.

Close-quarters combat between Ukrainian soldiers of the 2nd Separate Special Purpose Regiment and Russian infiltrators in a high-rise building in the city of Mykolaivka, Slovyansk direction.

2 Banderol jet-powered strike UAVs to Nizhyn, Chernihiv oblast.

Correction: 3 UAVs detected. Now heading to Kipty, Chernihiv oblast.

Crossing the Dnipro river to Borodyanka, Kyiv oblast.

Now heading to Kyiv city from the north.

Shelter, over Kyiv city.

As reported by AMK, 2 have been shot down, only 1 remains.