🇷🇺 The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reports: "As a result of the negotiation process, 94 Russian servicemen were returned from the territory controlled by the Kiev regime"

🇷🇺🇺🇦 336 marine brigade burning Ukrainian equipment in Zaporozhye region

🇷🇺 Friends, if someone expected that the Ukrainian offensive would be repulsed without temporary loss of some villages or some advanced positions, then you are far from military topics. The initiative was and still remains with the enemy, who calculated the forces and means for a successful breakthrough of our front. As expected in an offensive, the enemy threw more infantry and equipment into battle than we had on the defensive. Despite this, the goals of the enemy’s offensive plan to break through our front and enter the operational space failed in the first 3 days with huge losses for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In the first two days in the Zaporozhye direction, we lost two positions, which we returned on the third day. In the South-Donetsk direction, the enemy is loudly declaring progress in some areas, most of which was the territory of the gray zone. Regular military work is going on.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Kiev closed the discharge of water at the Dnieper hydroelectric power station for an offensive in the Kherson direction.

The termination of the discharge at the Dnieper HPP will lead to the maximum shallowing of the Dnieper River along its entire course (in particular, in the Kherson region). This will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to force the riverbed to the south.

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇲 Destruction by the Lancet of an American Oshkosh M-ATV

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV tank with a KMT-7 mine trawl in the Zaporozhye direction

Analysis of the current situation:

On the whole, I’m pretty unbothered by things and the following map shows why; the AFU has yet to reach the first major defensive line despite their successes today. Their struggles to advance so far have been against the screening line, which is pretty ominous for their prospects given the fact the Russian defensive lines are classic echelon defense and more fortified than what they have yet faced.

So, what exactly happened today? As multiple other channels noted, the weather turned sour over the battlefield and rains have begun. This has limited drone recon for artillery spotting, Lancet strikes and also restricted fixed wing close air support. It’s no coincidence the AFU has made its largest gains to date at precisely the same moment the aforementioned issues started for Russia; they took the window and are leveraging it for all its worth. Bad news for the AFU is the weather forecast suggests it will only rain for another 24-36 hours and rapidly turn sunny thereafter. Russian air advantage will be back with the predictable results.

As for what happens next, the AFU might be able to use the remaining window to advance up to the main defensive belt in this sector. Problem is, as of yesterday, visually confirmed losses are already at 10% in many vehicle categories. Generally speaking, at 15-20% losses, units become combat ineffective.

The losses haven’t been equally distributed of course, so the AFU still retains several reserve units to employ, but these losses before the main defensive belt paint a pretty negative picture for their future prospects as previously stated. Noticeably, reports from both sides have largely stopped mentioning the AFU 47th Brigade in the last 24 hours and a lot of the confirmed losses were by them over the past week. This is an indication they might have been exhausted already, which is pretty big as they were one of the Western trained and equipped brigades selected for offensive.