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Forwarded from Ukraine Watch
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ€©πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦NAVAL NOOSE FOR UKRAINE

πŸ”˜Systematic strikes on vessels:

πŸ”˜Russia has begun striking cargo ships entering Ukrainian ports (Odessa) with drones, regardless of their flag. This is part of a strategy to halt commercial shipping in Ukraine.

πŸ”˜Economic unprofitability for shipowners:

πŸ”˜Voyages to Odesa are becoming economically unfeasible due to high risks (loss of the vessel), the need to pay crews several times more, and insurance companies refusing to cover such voyages.

πŸ”˜A blow to Ukraine's sponsors:

πŸ”˜The halt of maritime trade:

πŸ”˜Deprives Ukraine of an important economic sector, forcing Europe to spend even more on its upkeep.

πŸ”˜Exacerbates domestic political problems in Europe, as patriotic parties use unpopular spending on Ukraine in their struggle for power.

πŸ”˜AFU military logistics:

πŸ”˜The loss of sea routes will force the AFU to rely on overland transport (road and rail), which is more expensive, requires more fuel, and is more vulnerable to Russian strikes.

πŸ”˜Conclusion:

πŸ”˜The current actions of Russia are a step toward rationality. If Europe does not agree to peace, the situation could escalate into a more severe phase of regional war.

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