🇪🇺 Europe's heating season underway as gas drawdowns start from record low storage

Europe has started burning through the smallest winter gas reserve since records began in 2011, with EU storage sites 74.6% full on November 1 after five days of withdrawals.

Storage topped out at 74.96% on October 27 and has slipped every day since, to 844 TWh (80bcm), according to Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI transparency platform.

The previous lowest seasonal peak was 77.5% in October 2021, on the eve of the 2022 energy crisis. A year ago the bloc's sites were 82.8% full on November 1, and the average for the date over 2011-2025 is 90.5%.

Europe is going into the cold months with about a sixth less gas in hand than usual, and prices have become hostage to the headlines from the Gulf. The Dutch TTF benchmark broke through €100 per MWh ($1,180 per thousand cubic meters, €29.31/MMBtu, or $32.87/MMBtu) in October for the first time since December 2022, and the October average was about $1,000 per 1,000 cubic metres - 2.6-times the level of a year earlier, TASS calculated from ICE data.

The December TTF contract then fell more than 3% at one point on November 2, to about €95.21 per MWh, its lowest since October 29, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had authorised talks with the US, the agency reported, however this decrease is not expected to last as Reuters reported today that the U.S. and Iran haven't made any breakthroughs in negotiations.

EU rules require member states to have their storage 90% full at some point between October 1 and December 1, with up to 10 percentage points of leeway when filling proves difficult. With withdrawals under way below 75%, even the lower bar is now out of reach, and forecasters had already warned of a 14bcm winter shortfall. Germany, the EU's biggest consumer, was only about 61% full, and its failure to fill its tanks has opened a row with Italy.

Storage at its lowest in 15 years leaves Europe more exposed than usual this winter, especially if the weather turns cold, Equinor CEO Anders Opedal told the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi on November 2, according to TASS. Many buyers, including Equinor's own customers, are now looking for long-term contracts, he said.

LNG has been carrying the load. Sendout from European terminals reached about 11.1bcm in October, the most in five months and 4% more than in September, though 12% less than in October 2025, according to the agency's calculations from GIE data.

LNG accounted for 42.4% of European supply over January-October, ahead of North Sea gas, mainly Norwegian, at 38.4%, North Africa at 9.6%, supplies from the east including Russian pipeline gas at 5.9% and Azerbaijan at 3.6%, ENTSOG figures to October 30 show.

EU imports of Russian LNG rose 10% y/y to about 16.5bcm in the first nine months, the agency estimated from Bruegel data, while the bloc's total LNG purchases fell 5% to 104bcm. Russia still covers about 11% of Europe's gas consumption, down from 45% before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, The Moscow Times reported.

The EU has committed to ending all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, a phase-out the World Bank says could push European prices higher. Goldman Sachs estimated prices could rise to €150/MWh if this winter is cold and UNHCR just warned that is exactly what is expected. 

🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/europe-s-heating-season-underway-as-gas-drawdowns-start-from-record-low-storage-481346/

🇦🇪🤝🇪🇹🇸🇩 The UAE–Ethiopia airlift reached the highest monthly level I have ever recorded in Oct 2026, with at least 81 suspicious cargo flights out of Al Ain and Al Reef Airbase.

The surge was driven by around 23 Boeing 747 freighter flights from Al Ain, UAE, to Bole Airport in Ethiopia.

Of the 81 UAE–Ethiopia suspicious cargo flights recorded in October 2026, 52 departed Al Ain Airport, 26 Al Reef Airbase, two Fujairah and one Sharjah.

The busiest days were 11 and 20 October, with five flights each, followed by eight other days with four apiece.

🔗 AfriMEOsint