🇧🇷 On Brasilia administrative center storming, January 8

Part 1 - Chronology

Yesterday the Brazilian capital was gripped with large-scale protests initiated by former president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters, who in October 2022 lost the runoff election to Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva and did not admit the voting results.

Rallies of thousands of Bolsonaristas took place in all major cities in Brazil throughout the transition period from November 2022. Protesters actively called for the army intervention to support the former leader of the country, the dissolution of the National Congress and the Supreme Court of Brazil.

However, it was not until January 8 that peaceful protests turned into a full-scale riot against the new government. It ended with disorders and vandalism in the administrative center of Brasilia.

🔻Chronology of events:

▪️In the afternoon of January 8, it became known that the administrators of the protest channels of Bolsonaro's radical supporters had concluded an agreement to coordinate actions. A day before, 100 buses with 4,000 passengers arrived in the center of Brasilia.

▪️At about 2:00 p.m. local time, an organized group of Bolsonaristas left the tent camp near the General Staff of the Army and headed toward Ministerial Square and the Praça dos Três Poderes.

▪️At about 3 p.m., protesters tore down fences and stormed the grounds of the National Congress, the official residence of President Lula and the Supreme Court.

Federal District police offered no resistance to the crowd and only observed the situation. Ministers were urgently evacuated to safer locations and President Lula was transported to São Paulo.

Over the next two hours, a mob of Bolsonarists stormed the president's buildings, the parliament and the courthouse unimpeded. The situation inside the administrative center of Brasilia resembled the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

The choice of targets was not random: among the protesters Lula has a reputation for corruption, Congress for Bolsonaro's traitors, and the Supreme Court embodies the political enemy of the ex-president.

▪️At about 5 p.m., military police units were deployed in the center of the capital. Helicopters bombed the crowd with tear gas, stun grenades and stun grenades.

▪️At about 8 p.m., military police units recaptured all occupied buildings and cleared the city's squares of protesters.

▪️As of 8:40 p.m., the federal government reported that 400 protesters had been detained. 46 rioters suffered injuries of varying degrees of severity.

🔻 Brazilian authorities’ reaction:

▪️ At 5:50 p.m. local time, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva, who took office Jan. 1, addressed the nation. He called the rioters "fascists fanatics" and promised to find and punish not only the rioters, but also their sponsors.

▪️Based on Article 34 of the constitution, Lula announced a federal intervention in the Federal District until January 31, 2023, a special force operation to maintain law and order involving the army and police.

This regime allows law enforcement forces to detain citizens without investigation, as well as seize the property and accounts of individuals and businesses, vehicles and real estate.

▪️Later, Supreme Court Justice Alessandre de Moraes suspended the governor of the Federal District by his decision. According to the court's version, the forces of law and order in Brasilia not only did not resist, but also drove the protesters. The head of security of the Federal District also lost his position.

Part 2

#Brazil

@meriblood @rybar @favelasemrus

🇧🇷 On Brasilia administrative center storming, January 8

Part 2 - Beneficiaries and consequences

🔻The reaction of the international community:

▪️Soon after the riots began, the presidents of every regional leader from Chile to Venezuela to Mexico announced their support for the Brazilian government.

▪️The U.S. government, which has once again become Brazil's geopolitical allies, also supported the Lula administration. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called the riots "an attack on the presidency," and Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan called them "an attempt to undermine democracy."

▪️ In Russia, the first to comment on the January 8 events was Federation Council Vice-Speaker Konstantin Kosachev: in his opinion, the riots were a "strange and senseless putsch to nowhere." The politician also noted that Bolsonaro himself prudently disavowed the protests.

🔻What happens next?

▪️Depending on the true organizers of the riots, the main beneficiaries will be those who, at first glance, appear to be the victims — President Lula da Silva, the National Congress and the Supreme Court.

▪️Further events will follow the scenario of the U.S. Capitol attack two years ago. They will include trials of the most active vandals, public discrediting of the opposition, and a "witch hunt."

▪️The condemnation of the Bolsonarists' actions would be fertile ground for strengthening cooperation between the Lula administration and center-right forces in Congress.

▪️Law enforcement will be empowered to disperse the remaining Bolsonarist encampments in the capital and other cities, burying the protest wave.

▪️Jair Bolsonaro's supporters in the streets from the agro-industrial and commercial sectors will face a forced redistribution of capital.

▪️The Brazilian Supreme Court will receive new powers to impose order, especially in the area of censorship and control of social networks. Facebook moderators have already started to do the same.

▪️There will be a major purge of unreliable officials. Similar to the governor of Brasilia, who was formerly a political ally of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The personnel reshuffle will also affect the security bloc, which does not have Lula's trust.

▪️The political figure of Jair Bolsonaro, who has been vilified as the new leader of the opposition, will become too toxic for former allies. Like Donald Trump in the United States, Bolsonaro will face charges of rioting, and his future career will be in question.

The revolt in Brasilia was not only the apogee of disillusionment with the political system and dissatisfaction with the return to power of Luiz "Lula" Inácio da Silva, but also a precondition for the latter's consolidation of power within the country.

Lula had planned to begin his presidential term with active foreign policy work - including within BRICS and as an intermediary in the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. Now the new president of Brazil will have to concentrate on domestic policy.

Part 1

#Brazil

@meriblood @rybar @favelasemrus

🇧🇷🇦🇷 Brazil and Argentina to start preparations for a common currency

Brazil and Argentina will this week announce that they are starting preparatory work on a common currency, in a move which could eventually create the world’s second-largest currency bloc.

The initial focus will be on how a new currency, which Brazil suggests calling the “sur” (south), could boost regional trade and reduce reliance on the US dollar. It would at first run in parallel with the Brazilian real and Argentine peso.

The project is likely to take many years to come to fruition.

#Brazil #Argentina #CELAC

@meriblood

🇦🇷🇧🇷 On the Latin America single currency

@sex_drugs_kahlo and @econopocalypse analyzed the concept of the single currency ("sur") and made some forecasts on the issue.

▪️ Supposedly, the new currency will stimulate regional trade and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. Initially, the new currency is planned to be used together with the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso.

▪️ FT estimates that the currency union, covering all of Latin America, will account for about 5% of global GDP. The world's largest currency union, the euro, accounts for about 14% of global GDP in dollar terms. Trade between Brazil and Argentina reached $26.4 billion in the first 11 months of last year, up nearly 21% from the same period in 2021. These two countries are the driving force behind the Mercosur regional trade bloc, which also includes Paraguay and Uruguay.

▪️ The new single currency is the most attractive for Argentina, where annual inflation is approaching 100% as Argentina's central bank prints money to finance spending. According to the Central Bank, the amount of money in public circulation quadrupled during President Alberto Fernandez's first three years in power.

▪️ Brazil finds it difficult to stay in tandem with Argentina and be cut off from international debt markets after defaulting in 2020. As a result of the Soros team’s smart actions, Argentina owes the IMF more than $40 billion after financial aid in 2018.

▪️ How will the new currency be supported?
Official statements do not mention it yet. But with the current state of the finances of Argentina and several other Latin American countries, the only collateral may be natural resources and food supplies. The emergence of a single new currency will allow to "dissolve" partially the internal problems of inflation and budget deficits, in exchange for the loss of economic and then political sovereignty. This is an exact copy of the mechanism created in the EU.

The single structure controls the issuance of the euro and the common EU policy, making it unnecessary to build bilateral relations with individual countries.

❗️Introduction of the single currency would make it much easier for the Federal Reserve to control the Latin American monetary system.

To issue such a currency, a single center of issue, analogous to the ECB, would have to be established. The influence of local central banks would be blurred, as the new issuance center would be collegial. This will seriously limit the influence of individual countries' regulators on local governments. it would seriously limit the influence of individual countries' regulators on local economies. The key issues of fighting inflation and the availability of credit resources will be the responsibility of only a single Central Bank.

In the public arena, the idea of a single currency is likely to be presented as an opportunity to move away from the dollar, create new jobs and stabilize inflation. But, in reality, it will simply mean a large-scale and centralized withdrawal of resources under stricter control of groups affiliated with the United States.

#Brazil #Argentina

@meriblood

🇨🇳🇧🇷China and Brazil sign memorandum on yuan clearing

The People's Bank of China recently signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Central Bank of Brazil to establish yuan clearing arrangements in Latin America's largest economy.

These arrangements will help enterprises and financial institutions in the two countries conduct cross-border transactions using the Chinese yuan. They will also further facilitate bilateral trade and investment.

Brazil is China's largest trade partner in Latin America where bilateral trade volume exceeded $100 billion four years in a row. China has served as Brazil's biggest trade partner for 13 consecutive years.

#Brazil #China

☠️ Blood Meridian

🇦🇷🇬🇧Argentina terminates agreement with UK to fly to Falkland Islands from Sao Paulo

Argentina has announced the repeal of the authorization to the U.K. of the air service from Sao Paulo (Brazil) to the disputed Falkland Islands, with a stopover in the Argentine city of Cordoba.

The Argentine authorities have reproached the British Government for having prevented any real and concrete progress in the sense of allowing a direct flight from the Argentine mainland to the islands.

#Argentina #UK #Brazil

☠️ Blood Meridian

🇲🇽 Mexico tops the "world's most violent cities" list

🔻A Mexican study conducted in 2022 found that Mexico tops the ranking of the world's most violent cities by a wide margin.

The study looked at homicide rates in cities with populations of 300,000 or more (excluding Venezuela). Of the 50 cities, 38 were in Latin America and 17 were in Mexico alone.

🇲🇽 The Mexican city of Colima was named the most violent city, where there are almost 182 murders per 100 thousand people. Previously, Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, held the first place, but the data for 2022 is not available.

Nine of the top 10 cities are in Mexico, including Mexican cities on the U.S. border - Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez.

🇺🇸 In the U.S., seven cities made the list: New Orleans (8th), Baltimore (17th), Detroit (23rd), Memphis (25th), Cleveland (27th), Milwaukee (39th) and Philadelphia (46th).

🇧🇷🇨🇴🇿🇦 Other countries that appear frequently on the list include Brazil (10 cities), Colombia (six cities) and South Africa (four cities).

🔻The situation in Mexico is certainly related to drug cartel activity. In U.S. border cities, the situation is aggravated by migration.

However, this data set is not very representative, especially in the case of Mexico, as the criminal situation is much more severe in the less populated cities, heavily influenced by cartels.

#Mexico #US #Brazil #Colombia

☠️ Blood Meridian

🇧🇷 Eight Amazon rainforest countries open summit in Belem, Brazil

For the first time in 14 years, presidents of the South American nations home to the Amazon rainforest are converging to chart a common course for protection of the bioregion and address organized crime.

The summit Tuesday and Wednesday in the Brazilian city of Belem is a meeting of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has said he hopes the Belem summit will awaken the organization that has met only three times in 45 years.

It’s Lula’s second attempt to form an Amazon bloc. He tried back when the last Amazon summit was held in 2009, during his first presidency, but was joined by only one other president from the region, Bharrat Jagdeo of Guyana.

🔎 Source
#Brazil #Bolivia #Peru #Ecuador #Colombia #Venezuela

☠️ Blood Meridian

🌎 Eight Amazon countries sign Belem Declaration

🔻Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela Tuesday signed the Belem Declaration on the opening day of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) Summit in the Brazilian State of Pará.

Amazon nations agreed to a list of unified policies and measures to bolster regional cooperation, which include: protection and promotion of human rights; active participation and promotion of the rights of indigenous peoples and local and traditional communities; gender equality.

It was up to the Brazilian government, as host of the Summit, to present a basic text, later analyzed and adjusted by the other countries.

🔻The joint declaration creates an alliance for combating forest destruction, but still leaves countries to pursue their own individual deforestation goals.

The European media were quick to call the Belem Declaration "a failure," as a lack of common stance on deforestation among countries of the Amazon region complicates the EU's negotiation process. The issue of deforestation is still standing in the way of the EU-Mercosur trade deal.

🔎 Source
#Brazil #Bolivia #Colombia #Ecuador #Guyana #Peru #Suriname #Venezuela #EU

☠️ Blood Meridian

🇧🇷🇺🇸Judge threatens to shut down X in Brazil

A Brazil Supreme Court judge warned Elon Musk Wednesday that he would have X suspended in Latin America's largest nation if the billionaire didn't name a legal representative for the platform in the country within 24 hours.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes' summons alerting Musk that X has until about 8pm local time Thursday (7pm ET) to comply with the order comes after the platform announced earlier this month that it would close its operations in Brazil over what it called the judge's "censorship orders."

🔎 Source
#Brazil #US

☠️ Blood Meridian

🌐🌾⛽️ - A look at those who will be most affected by Russia's confirmed ban on AN #fertilizer exports until April 21.

The biggest problems are for #Brazil & #India--the world's two largest #urea importers already facing notable disruption from the Strait closure.

🔗 Mike Castle

@CIG_telegram