🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Neo-Ottomanism in Syria | CIG #commentary

After Iraq, Iran, and Turkey defeated ISIS in 2017, they invaded Iraqi Kurdistan. This move enabled Turkish forces to expand militarily and establish many bases within Iraqi borders. With Assad gone, Syria's Kurdish government has an uncertain future.

The SDF in Northern Syria have built their house on sand. Many pro-FSA Arabs live in the northeast, and much of the SDF itself (2nd column from the right) is composed of such fifth column elements. A joint Syrian-Turkish invasion would likely be accepted as a liberation war.

US & Israeli officials are worried about defending a land corridor in Syria to prevent regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and various Islamist factions from posing a threat to Israel.

Such a corridor would interfere with Turkey's strategic goals in Syria, especially just after an exhaustingly long civil war and newly found Turkish political dominance in the country. It is unlikely that Turkey would let this opportunity pass them by.

Meanwhile, Israel is perhaps over-extending itself during a lengthy multi-front war, as US-competitors Iran & Russia seem to remain steadfast after trading Assad for the new government in Syria established by the FSA.

Since Israel is conquering land over claims from thousands of years ago, does it not set precedent for Turkey to project Syrian sovereignty over Ottoman-era boundaries? Both armies are on the move now, and Assad is no longer in between them. What happens next? Enter Trump:

Situated in Golan Heights, the aptly named Trump Heights settlement symbolizes the intense involvement that the next Trump administration will have in the region. Rather than pivoting US strategic positioning to East Asia, Trump will have his hands full with Syria and Israel.

Dealing with Syria for Trump means dealing with Turkey. Many of Trump's allies have a very CENTCOM-centric focus on foreign policy. Keeping Neocons out of his admin is crucial in preventing the US from being bogged down in a forever war fueled by ancient blood grievances.

The factions that overthrew Assad in Syria are not unipolar either. Jolani's HTS is gaining distance from Turkey relative to the SNA by playing good cop with the SDF. The Southern Front & SFA are more secular and aligned with US/Israel forces.

Turkey will have to stabilize Syria first and may have to begrudgingly accept HTS primacy among other factions, along with supporting Jolani's legitimacy. Thereby choosing friendship with the HTS rather than completely losing them over failed attempts to control his territory.

Lastly, some have theorized that Israel and Turkey agreed to partition Syria. Something akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the ramifications it had for Poland.

@CIG_telegram

https://fxtwitter.com/franciscvs2/status/1865845871734063556

🇹🇷⚔️🇮🇱 Neo-Ottomanism in Syria | Collision Course with Israel | CIG #commentary (revised)

By December 8th, 2024, the Syrian Arab Republic, along with the ruling Assad dynasty, had collapsed. In its place, the Syrian Transitional Government was established and emerged with a new era. As for what happens next, neighboring Iraq may present a realistic path forward. After Iraq, Iran, and Turkey defeated ISIS in 2017, they invaded Iraqi Kurdistan. This move enabled Turkish forces to expand militarily and establish many bases within Iraqi borders. Now, with Assad gone, Syria's Kurdish-ruled separatist state in the northeast has an uncertain future.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northeastern Syria live in a house built on sand. As a Kurdish-led coalition of diverse ethnic militias, they will have to contend with local demographics, which include a wide geographical dispersion of Sunni Arabs. Many of whom are vocally sympathetic towards the FSA, setting the tone for mass uprisings and the activation of sleeper agents within their territories. In fact, much of the SDF itself is composed of such fifth column elements. If a joint Syrian-Turkish invasion transpired here, it would likely be accepted as a war of liberation with local support among the Arab populace.

After a major victory for Turkish influence in the Levant, US & Israeli officials are worried about defending a land corridor in Syria. In order to prevent regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and various Islamist factions from posing a threat to Israel and their regional allies, the Kurds. Some have theorized that Israel and Turkey agreed to partition Syria. Something akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the ramifications it had for Poland. Despite the outcome of which led to the most brutal chapter of war in human history with tens of millions dead.

https://syriagenerals.wordpress.com/2024/12/09/neo-ottomanism-in-syria-collision-course-with-israel/

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸 The Minneapolis Annunciation Church shooting is the result of a civilization in its death throes

CIG #commentary

https://telegra.ph/The-Minneapolis-Annunciation-Church-shooting-is-the-result-of-a-civilization-in-its-death-throws-08-28

🇹🇷⚔️🇮🇱 Neo-Ottomanism in Syria | Collision Course with Israel | CIG #commentary (revised)

By December 8th, 2024, the Syrian Arab Republic, along with the ruling Assad dynasty, had collapsed. In its place, the Syrian Transitional Government was established and emerged with a new era. As for what happens next, neighboring Iraq may present a realistic path forward. After Iraq, Iran, and Turkey defeated ISIS in 2017, they invaded Iraqi Kurdistan. This move enabled Turkish forces to expand militarily and establish many bases within Iraqi borders. Now, with Assad gone, Syria's Kurdish-ruled separatist state in the northeast has an uncertain future.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northeastern Syria live in a house built on sand. As a Kurdish-led coalition of diverse ethnic militias, they will have to contend with local demographics, which include a wide geographical dispersion of Sunni Arabs. Many of whom are vocally sympathetic towards the FSA, setting the tone for mass uprisings and the activation of sleeper agents within their territories. In fact, much of the SDF itself is composed of such fifth column elements. If a joint Syrian-Turkish invasion transpired here, it would likely be accepted as a war of liberation with local support among the Arab populace.

After a major victory for Turkish influence in the Levant, US & Israeli officials are worried about defending a land corridor in Syria. In order to prevent regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and various Islamist factions from posing a threat to Israel and their regional allies, the Kurds. Some have theorized that Israel and Turkey agreed to partition Syria. Something akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the ramifications it had for Poland. Despite the outcome of which led to the most brutal chapter of war in human history with tens of millions dead.

https://syriagenerals.wordpress.com/2024/12/09/neo-ottomanism-in-syria-collision-course-with-israel/

@CIG_telegram

🇪🇺 Liberalism has run its course | CIG #commentary

All across Europe, North America and Australia, the natives are losing faith in their respective centrist political classes and are opting for more "extremist" political parties, with a good chunk of people completely losing faith in any political solution to their problems.

The good news is that Europeans have to endure a little more under the existing regimes. The Collective West is going broke and the (in)ability to delay or fix the problems causing this bankrupting will decide which countries fall first.

If in the United States, the country is bankrupted to fund Israel's expansionist wars, after untold trillions wasted already on Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc. in the case of Europe and the United Kingdom the situation is even bleaker, for the ruling class.

Europe and the UK have two ticking timebombs: the welfare state is crumbling under the weight of boomers and their desire for a lavish lifestyle coupled with the nonstop influx of migrants who are let in under the pretense of getting jobs even though very few end up working and the Ukraine war.

Most of the debt taken by European and the British governments is financing the welfare state. This debt by itself is an unsustainable and simply evil policy, taken by older generations, who deliberately burden the young in order to have their desired lifestyle. On top of this debt comes debt associated with the day-to-day operations of the state administration and endeavours like the Ukraine war

Regarding the Ukraine war, the liberals have to pick between two terrible choices:

⚫️ Continue propping up Ukraine and go further into debt, continue antagonising Russia and the U.S, with potential to backfire spectacularly with the U.S. withdrawing or limiting its military presence and Russia continuing its covert war and sabotage operations across the EU, which cause further economic damage

⚫️ Admit defeat, get humiliated, obey Trump and accept territorial concessions to Russia in Ukraine, but continue the cold war with Moscow, China, BRICS in general, and further isolate itself from the world and pursue closer ties with the U.S.

In the end, no matter which choice they make, the Europeans and the British, lose, politicians and ordinary people alike.

@CIG_telegram

🇷🇺🇹🇷 On November 24th 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24M fighter jet over the Syrian-Turkish border. | CIG #commentary

Turkey claimed the fighter jet had flown 1.3 miles (~2km) into Turkish airspace while the Russians claimed the fighter jet was shot down while in Syrian airspace.

The warplane's crew: the pilot and navigator, were shot at by Turkoman Syrian rebels, who were armed by Turkey, while descending with parachutes. While the navigator landed and was subsequently rescued, the pilot, Oleg Peshkov, was killed while he was parachuting, an action which constitutes a war crime under the Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions on the Laws of War.

During the rescue effort to save the navigator, a Russian marine was also killed when the helicopter he was traveling with came under fire.

Russia retaliated swiftly, ending visa-free travel for Turkish citizens in Russia, limiting the stay of Turkish citizens in the country, added restrictions on Turkish businesses, restricted Turkish imports, Russian travel agencies were discouraged to advertise package holidays in Turkish resorts and banned charter flights to Turkish airports.

In Syria, Russia retaliated with a massive air bombing campaign against Syrian rebels, destroying several ISIS convoys moving oil into Turkey and crippling their defense of Aleppo with the Syrian Arab Army making large gains inside Aleppo city and the surrounding countryside.

On June 29th 2016, Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan would call Vladimir Putin and apologised for shooting the plane. After the call, trade and travel restrictions placed on Turkey begun being lifted gradually by Russia. In regards to Syria, Turkey and Russia launched months later, the Astana Peace Talks.

Soon after, Turkey struck a deal for Russia's S-400 SAM system.

If a similar incident like the one on November 24th 2015, was to occur today over the Baltics, the Russian response might not limit itself at just strictly economic sanctions, as trade between Europe/The Baltics and Russia is practically nonexistent. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia or Poland shooting down a Russian aircraft after violating their airspace can result in a war.

Cool-heads prevailed in 2015 with the Russians and Turks negotiating and avoiding a war. Nowadays, the EU is led by irate women and effeminate men, living in a fantasy world where if Russia continues fighting in Ukraine "just for one more month" the whole country will erupt in revolution.

Some Baltic and Polish politicians think they can outlast Russia in a war of attrition, as if other, bigger powers haven’t tried that before, with disastrous results.

@CIG_telegram

🇷🇺🇲🇩🇷🇴🇪🇺 The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) stated that "the EU plans to occupy Moldova".

While one may dismiss these claims as "insane ramblings", we need to add some context:

Liberalism says that not just people but also nations have the "right" to pick and choose their own future (right of self-determination). This went at odds with older concepts in politics such as the notion of "empire", "spheres of influence", "protectorates" etc. This notion of self-determination was popularised during the 1848 Revolutions but the old empires of Europe survived even if in some places, revolutionary governments took power, only to be swiftly toppled.

WW1 however put down for good many of the old European empires and gave birth to many new countries. The U.S. under president Woodrow Wilson made it a key peace condition in his Fourteen Points in February 1918. The right of self-determination was supported by Marxists too. Figures like Vladimir Lenin and Lev Trotsky supported this idea because they viewed it as an effective way to "bring forth the revolution".

No one at the time sincerely believed in this right because it never was applied to everyone equally. Wilson and the Entente never allowed the people of the Global South, in the colonies to become independent, and did so only after WW2 when the British and French empires were effectively broke and couldn't hold on to their colonies who were revolting. The same way went in Soviet Russia who, after the death of Lenin and the ostracization of Trotsky by Stalin, started oppressing all ethnicities except the Russians because Stalin thought the Russians to be the least likely to revolt against the Communist Party and also because they were the most numerous.

The right to self-determination always was a means to an end, especially when it was invoked by bigger powers against rivals. Notions like "empire" and "spheres of influence" never left, they just became obstructed from view or were replaced by other terms with slightly different meanings.

Russia looks at the EU countries/governments as a single collective. They see the EU as an extension of the U.S. (and they see the US as a puppet of the UK, their eternal rival). Every nation composing the EU is just "brainwashed" and made to fight against them. The EU and the U.S. are similar and they frankly complement each other. They can't exist without each other. This was seen clearly in the past few months, how Washington and Brussels were at odds in January only to become best friends by the middle of summer.

So when the SVR says the EU "will occupy" Moldova, they aren't wrong. The EU is actively trying to wrestle Moldova away from Russia's sphere of influence. For the past 25 years, there has been an "unseen" war fought between Brussels (and Washington) and Moscow over Eastern Europe and the EU largely won this conflict. Russia managed to keep just Belarus and Serbia close to it. Moldova is the last country in the "greyzone" neither western nor eastern.

The EU doesn't need an army to occupy Moldova, it just needs to turn Moldova into a "Russophobic" country as the Russians would say. The "military buildup" the SVR mentions is obviously fake because it is simply not needed. The EU has a friendly government in Moldova and the only thing they need to do is keep them popular so that they can win elections and the EU is spending a lot of money to keep it that way. No reason to militarily invade it. Russia attacked Ukraine because the EU/US managed to overthrow the pro-Russian president and install a pro-Western one and subsequently banned any pro-Russian politician from running for office.

#commentary

@Wallachian_Gazette

🇷🇺🇩🇰🌐 The unidentified drones invading Danish airspace the past few days are sent by Russia to test Denmark's air defenses | CIG #commentary

Denmark and NATO can trap the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet by closing the Danish Straits to Russian shipping. In an instant, the ports of Ust-Luga and St. Petersburg will be left without an export route and cause massive damage to the Russian economy, especially in Russia's north.

In 2024, Ust-Luga ranked 4th in Europe's most busiest port. St. Petersburg ranked 20th by cargo tonnage (which includes ferries transporting trucks but not passenger vehicles).

In 2024, St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga recorded a 32% increase in container handling volumes. The majority of exports consisting of fertilizers, petroleum products and chemicals. A drone attack by Ukraine damaged the fractionating column of the Novatek gas terminal in Ust-Luga port and reduced by half the port's oil exports for the time being.

Seizures of oil tankers by Germany and the Baltic countries led to a shift and now some shipping companies, where possible, are reorienting towards the Black and Azov Seas. Novorossiysk was Russia's busiest port in 2024 and 3rd busiest port in Europe.

@CIG_telegram

🇪🇺 European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Marta Kos, says the EU will take measures to prevent "Russian Trojan horses" from entering the EU. What does this mean for the countries which seek EU membership? CIG | #commentary

Kos' proposal means that Brussels wants to create a two-tier system, with the current 27 members enjoying all the benefits and rights which the EU's founding treaties grant, while the new members are "put on probation" for a couple of years until they become full members.

The period of probation means being under intense scrutiny from Brussels which reserves the right to exclude the new members from the union at the first sign of "democratic backsliding" with Marta Kos explicitly mentioning that the EU does not wish to have another Viktor Orbán to deal with. New members would not be able to veto any decisions taken by the Commission or Council which may harm the national interests.

The candidate countries closest to EU membership, Ukraine and Moldova, will respond differently to this proposal. Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, has already said he will not agree to being treated as a 2nd class country, Moldova though is considering accepting this proposal.

Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, called on the EU to open negotiations immediately at the beginning of October after her party, PAS, won the Parliamentary elections, however all the EU has done since was delay this opening which undermines Sandu's plan of getting Moldova into the EU by 2028, before her term expires.

The European Commission treats the accession of Ukraine and Moldova as a package, meaning the two countries are tied to one another and with Hungary opposing Ukraine's EU membership, Moldova is also stuck which is beginning to cause frustration for Moldovan politicians.

Kos told FT she thinks that Moldova should be separated from Ukraine and go around Orbán's veto but Ukraine's biggest advocates in the EU, the Baltic countries, who control a lot of powerful positions in Brussels, are opposed to this eventuality because it would push Ukraine's membership in the distant future, after the war is over.

Germany, The Netherlands and France have an interest to keep Ukraine out of the EU or at the very least, only partially integrate it. Ukraine has cheap labour, far fewer regulations and corruption is the norm which makes it profitable for German, Dutch and French businesses to open up manufacturing facilities and then export the goods to the EU.

So this is what the EU is doing, it is delaying EU membership for Ukraine and Moldova and then releases these meaningless reports and grades every couple of months for positive headlines, while actual negotiations are stuck due to internal disputes between EU institutions and its member states who have various national interests at play to speed up or slow down the integration of new countries into the union.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇷🇺 ZOG is an antisemitic conspiracy but when the Russians want to put an end to a war in Eastern Europe they send a businessman to negotiate exclusively with a pair of American Jews. | CIG #commentary

Putin, replaced Sergey Lavrov (Russo-Armenian) with Kiril Dmitriev, who, while not Jewish he has worked closely with, potentially even having had contact in the past, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Dmitriev went to Harvard, is a former Goldman Sachs banker and a former McKinsey consultant. In the early 2000s, Dmitriev worked Delta Private Equity in Moscow to channel American funds into Russia.

Witkoff, Kushner and Dmitriev are not diplomats, nor had diplomatic training. Witkoff's career in diplomacy began in January 2025 when he was appointed as a special envoy for the Middle East, yet he has been an integral part of Trump's peace effort in Ukraine despite having named another envoy specifically for this, retired LTG Keith Kellogg.

Jared Kushner, unlike Steve Witkoff, doesn't hold an official position. He's just Donald Trump's son-in-law which gives him the advantage of being extremely close to the American president but these are not the only close ties of Kushner. He is a known close friend of Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dmitriev is the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, or Russia's sovereign wealth fund.

@CIG_telegram

🇪🇺🇺🇸🇷🇺 European security in the context of a looming American withdrawal from Europe | CIG #commentary

🔗 https://telegra.ph/European-security-in-the-context-of-a-looming-American-withdrawal-from-Europe-12-10

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇪🇺 The EU is its own worst enemy | CIG #commentary

📝 Martin Sellner: Only through Remigration can we turn the EU into the superpower the liberal elites say it is. But first we must:

1. Get rid of the managerial class. Liberals who are responsible for population replacement which is largely responsible by itself for the weakness of Europe.

2. Drop liberalism, universalism, the ideology of human rights interventionism & the end of history.

3. Deal with foreign powers and ensuring nonintervention in our space. It will work because:

a) there are adults in the room again, who will be taken seriously by US, China & Russia

b) European patriots will be actually willing to fight for such a political leadership, while they despise the current one.

🔗 https://telegra.ph/The-EU-is-its-own-worst-enemy-12-18

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Before the 12 Day War (June 2025), there were dozens of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions carried out by the USAF in the days leading up to the air campaign. | CIG #commentary

The U.S. and Israel have today fewer assets than they did last summer to defend against Iranian retaliation as the US Navy has left the Middle East to carry out operations against Venezuela.

The USAF and IAF are more than capable to strike targets in Iran now but their effectiveness will be much more reduced compared to the damage caused last summer.

If airstrikes follow in the coming hours, it is a risky gamble and ultimately, for what? The protests in the country have been quashed with the rioters killed or imprisoned. If there was a time to strike Iran, it was at the beginning of January, not now.

Airstrikes won't collapse the Islamic Republic of Iran but they can strengthen the resolve of its leaders and supporters.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸🇬🇱🇮🇸🇫🇴🇬🇧 A European perspective on the American annexation of Greenland | CIG #commentary

Regardless if the US annexes Greenland through peaceful or violent means, for it to control the GIUK Gap, Greenland by itself won't suffice. Iceland, the Faroe Islands, the Jan Mayen Island, Svalbard and the Shetland islands will have to come under American control as well.

The dispute over Greenland isn't just about the U.S. consolidating its presence in the Arctic and fending off Russian and Chinese threats. Its also the EU's first big test in its struggle to present itself as a truly sovereign power and not a mere extension of the Global American Empire.

If Denmark and by extension, the EU, manage to retain control over Greenland, the case for European sovereignty from either the US or Russia will significantly improve and that may cause the Chinese and Russians to actually take Brussels seriously.

Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron have been proclaiming the EU's independence ever since Donald Trump took office but they have yet to put their money where their mouth is in regards to Greenland.

Trump could not have been more clear about his intent to annex the island, no matter how many concessions for military bases and mineral exploitation rights he's given by the Danish, yet no significant EU response was announced to this landgrab besides a few countries sending small groups of officers to "survey" the island.

Russia hasn't laid claim to a single inch of EU territory yet Brussels insists that's what's going to happen if Ukraine falls, but how should Russia be deterred and discouraged from creating a landbridge to the Kaliningrad exclave if the EU doesn't fight for Greenland?

Analysts have claimed that the US annexing Greenland will be the end of NATO but that's only half of the story. The loss of Greenland has the potential to be the last nail in the coffin for the European project and convince more EU members to seek alternatives and protection from other, bigger powers.

Weakness will only invite more aggression from neighbours. If the US succeeds in obtaining Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Jan Mayen, Svalbard are next.

@CIG_telegram

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The Iranian Question | /CIG/ #commentary

🔗 https://telegra.ph/The-Iranian-Question-02-03