Another 220,000 troops are being currently trained for their assigned task. Not all will be frontline troops. Many will carry out tasks in the rear, but by doing this, they will free up professional assault troops, to be able to be used at the frontline. Currently many elite troops are carrying out rear tasks, due to personnel shortages.
The big question is, what will happen, as soon as these additional 220,000 troops have been committed to the theatre of war. Here the predictions begin.
From my point of view, even these numbers are not enough for large scale deep offensives into the enemy’s rear. To be honest. I don’t have access to the intelligence reports of the Russian General staff. If there is intelligence available, that the Ukrainian army and the NATO supply lines are short of collapse, then there could be indeed some large-scale offensives. Which would trigger the collapse of Ukraine.
If this would be the case, then I suspect, that we would see increased pressure over the whole frontline of Donbass, to bring maximum stress into these vital but difficult NATO supply lines. We could see in every bigger town across the line of contact in Donbass offensive movements and probing. This would exhaust this supply line to collapse.
At the same time, I would assume, that we would see another two big arrows coming down from Belarus. One directly to the Polish border, creating massive pressure on Lvov.
The other arrow would again be pinning down troops and logistics around Kiev, as in Phase 1.
Considering these major supply spots, I would estimate one of two scenarios:
The total annihilation of the Ukrainian army, since the logistics would collapse almost immediately, and the Ukrainian troops wouldn’t have anything left, then small weapons to defend themselves. Since they won’t be every allowed by NATO commanders to surrender, this scenario would see a total annihilation of the Ukrainian army. Which would of course involve KIA’s, WIA’s and POWs in immense numbers.
If the Ukrainian army somehow manages it, to take control of the whole command chain, they could manage it to surrender. Not with conditions. I’m talking about an unconditional surrender. Would be good for Ukraine and its people, but NATO will try to avoid this scenario at all costs.
Why would Russia execute this strategy only, if there are reports, that the Ukrainian army is short of collapsing? Well, if there is a more or less organized fighting force, that is still supplied well, by NATO, then a large-scale assault would also lead to large scale casualties, and Russia would need to start in parallel further mobilisation waves, to replenish its losses. General Surovikin hinted in his interviews, that this is not his intention.
Well. If the Russian intelligence reports don’t suggest that the Ukrainian army is short of collapsing, what would happen then?
Then I assume, that General Surovikin simply will array his troops across the newly reshaped line of contact (LOC). This means, from Zaporizhzhia in the south, up to Kharkov in the north. Maybe even we could even see border incursions from Kharkov up to Sumy. But not large scale and deep arrows, but incremental ones, in a pace, that is possible by sparing its own troops.
When these troops are prepared and in place, we simply would see over the whole new LOC (line of contact) the same grinding approach, that we have seen during Phase 2 in Donbass. Only in a far large scale. We could also say, the pace of human and material resources depletion of Ukraine would be increased by multiple times. (FAR more dead Ukrainians per day).
This would be either done until Ukraine and its army collapses or surrenders, or if this doesn’t apply, then until the intelligence reports suggest, that they are short of collapsing, and then again could happen, what I described above. Another two large arrows at Kiev and Lvov from Belarus, to conclude the war ultimately.
That’s what it is. That’s exactly what I assume will happen. I might be wrong, but I’m very confident in my assessment.
.
SMO constraints
The big question is, what will happen, as soon as these additional 220,000 troops have been committed to the theatre of war. Here the predictions begin.
From my point of view, even these numbers are not enough for large scale deep offensives into the enemy’s rear. To be honest. I don’t have access to the intelligence reports of the Russian General staff. If there is intelligence available, that the Ukrainian army and the NATO supply lines are short of collapse, then there could be indeed some large-scale offensives. Which would trigger the collapse of Ukraine.
If this would be the case, then I suspect, that we would see increased pressure over the whole frontline of Donbass, to bring maximum stress into these vital but difficult NATO supply lines. We could see in every bigger town across the line of contact in Donbass offensive movements and probing. This would exhaust this supply line to collapse.
At the same time, I would assume, that we would see another two big arrows coming down from Belarus. One directly to the Polish border, creating massive pressure on Lvov.
The other arrow would again be pinning down troops and logistics around Kiev, as in Phase 1.
Considering these major supply spots, I would estimate one of two scenarios:
The total annihilation of the Ukrainian army, since the logistics would collapse almost immediately, and the Ukrainian troops wouldn’t have anything left, then small weapons to defend themselves. Since they won’t be every allowed by NATO commanders to surrender, this scenario would see a total annihilation of the Ukrainian army. Which would of course involve KIA’s, WIA’s and POWs in immense numbers.
If the Ukrainian army somehow manages it, to take control of the whole command chain, they could manage it to surrender. Not with conditions. I’m talking about an unconditional surrender. Would be good for Ukraine and its people, but NATO will try to avoid this scenario at all costs.
Why would Russia execute this strategy only, if there are reports, that the Ukrainian army is short of collapsing? Well, if there is a more or less organized fighting force, that is still supplied well, by NATO, then a large-scale assault would also lead to large scale casualties, and Russia would need to start in parallel further mobilisation waves, to replenish its losses. General Surovikin hinted in his interviews, that this is not his intention.
Well. If the Russian intelligence reports don’t suggest that the Ukrainian army is short of collapsing, what would happen then?
Then I assume, that General Surovikin simply will array his troops across the newly reshaped line of contact (LOC). This means, from Zaporizhzhia in the south, up to Kharkov in the north. Maybe even we could even see border incursions from Kharkov up to Sumy. But not large scale and deep arrows, but incremental ones, in a pace, that is possible by sparing its own troops.
When these troops are prepared and in place, we simply would see over the whole new LOC (line of contact) the same grinding approach, that we have seen during Phase 2 in Donbass. Only in a far large scale. We could also say, the pace of human and material resources depletion of Ukraine would be increased by multiple times. (FAR more dead Ukrainians per day).
This would be either done until Ukraine and its army collapses or surrenders, or if this doesn’t apply, then until the intelligence reports suggest, that they are short of collapsing, and then again could happen, what I described above. Another two large arrows at Kiev and Lvov from Belarus, to conclude the war ultimately.
That’s what it is. That’s exactly what I assume will happen. I might be wrong, but I’m very confident in my assessment.
.
SMO constraints
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I reiterate this as many times as it is needed, is not Russia’s enemy. Ukraine IS Russia. This is a civil war. The first and foremost objective of Russia is to avoid as many casualties as possible on both sides, since both people will live together in one state going forward. At least a big part of the former Ukraine. I’ll explain this “one state thing” in the next article in more detail.
Yes, many Russia politicians, generals and people are pissed off, how the SMO is conducted. This is very understandable. One might think that a big military power, such as Russia, would conclude such a war within days or weeks. And it would. But, again, there is certain multi-dimensional constraints. Many of these people even looking everywhere for betrayal and everyone is a traitor, expect President Putin himself. Well, that’s understandable. There are emotions. Especially, if we consider how brainwashed the Ukrainians are and what they are doing, to piss the Russians even more off.
See, it is very simple. The Western objective is to sow eternal hatred between Russia and Ukraine, so that an integration either is impossible or it would take generations to reconcile. This strategy is indeed very successful. Every report of torture or execution of Russian POWs is executed and placed intentionally, to trigger such feelings in Russia. To make it impossible for the politicians, that need to think long term and not only about what is happening now, to coordinate the re-integration of Ukraine into Russia. Well. As I said. This strategy of the West is very successful and due to the massive support, Ukraine keeps on fighting against Russia and is inflicting casualties. Which causes even more anger on both sides against each other.
That’s why Phase 3 is dialling the pain to Ukraine gradually up and is converging steadily into something, that looks more like a full-blown war. From a humanitarian perspective, this is a full victory of the West and a tragedy for the Russian world.
Well, Russia won’t use at any stage its most modern weapons, that are not known yet in full detail to NATO. Especially, to let them in the dark, about its real capabilities, in case of a real war against NATO. That’s why we rarely see S-400 systems in combat use. As far as I know, it was used only one time, at the first days of the SMO, before the field aid defences were deployed and operational. S-400 is only one example. There are numerous technologies, that mustn’t be shown to the West, before it needs to be used against the West. First, the West mustn’t observe it. Second, the worst-case scenario would be if such sensitive material would fall into Western hands.
Then I assume, that Russia would restrain itself from using its most destructive weapons in a large scale. There are weapons to effectively level cities and villages without using hundreds of bombs or missiles. For example, the father of all bombs (FOAB). Google it. Russia want’s specially to collapse Ukraine as soon as possible and not to destroy it entirely or to kill its whole able-bodied, not fled, male population. Therefore, Russia needs to ensure, that Ukraine’s and NATO’s logistics collapses by overstretching it. I explained that already in this article.
Well, I mentioned, there are multi-dimensional reasons. The other reason I won’t discuss here, at all. Since it is geopolitical and not militarily. You can read it in my other articles. For example, in the article about the implementation of the new draft framework for European security.Basically and summarized it is about letting the West deplete itself economically and militarily in Ukraine, to trigger a collapse in Europe, to force the Europeans to de-colonialize themselves from the Americans. As I said, details are in the article.
Further thoughts
I’ll summarize another few thoughts, that I didn’t want to press into any other chapter.
Yes, many Russia politicians, generals and people are pissed off, how the SMO is conducted. This is very understandable. One might think that a big military power, such as Russia, would conclude such a war within days or weeks. And it would. But, again, there is certain multi-dimensional constraints. Many of these people even looking everywhere for betrayal and everyone is a traitor, expect President Putin himself. Well, that’s understandable. There are emotions. Especially, if we consider how brainwashed the Ukrainians are and what they are doing, to piss the Russians even more off.
See, it is very simple. The Western objective is to sow eternal hatred between Russia and Ukraine, so that an integration either is impossible or it would take generations to reconcile. This strategy is indeed very successful. Every report of torture or execution of Russian POWs is executed and placed intentionally, to trigger such feelings in Russia. To make it impossible for the politicians, that need to think long term and not only about what is happening now, to coordinate the re-integration of Ukraine into Russia. Well. As I said. This strategy of the West is very successful and due to the massive support, Ukraine keeps on fighting against Russia and is inflicting casualties. Which causes even more anger on both sides against each other.
That’s why Phase 3 is dialling the pain to Ukraine gradually up and is converging steadily into something, that looks more like a full-blown war. From a humanitarian perspective, this is a full victory of the West and a tragedy for the Russian world.
Well, Russia won’t use at any stage its most modern weapons, that are not known yet in full detail to NATO. Especially, to let them in the dark, about its real capabilities, in case of a real war against NATO. That’s why we rarely see S-400 systems in combat use. As far as I know, it was used only one time, at the first days of the SMO, before the field aid defences were deployed and operational. S-400 is only one example. There are numerous technologies, that mustn’t be shown to the West, before it needs to be used against the West. First, the West mustn’t observe it. Second, the worst-case scenario would be if such sensitive material would fall into Western hands.
Then I assume, that Russia would restrain itself from using its most destructive weapons in a large scale. There are weapons to effectively level cities and villages without using hundreds of bombs or missiles. For example, the father of all bombs (FOAB). Google it. Russia want’s specially to collapse Ukraine as soon as possible and not to destroy it entirely or to kill its whole able-bodied, not fled, male population. Therefore, Russia needs to ensure, that Ukraine’s and NATO’s logistics collapses by overstretching it. I explained that already in this article.
Well, I mentioned, there are multi-dimensional reasons. The other reason I won’t discuss here, at all. Since it is geopolitical and not militarily. You can read it in my other articles. For example, in the article about the implementation of the new draft framework for European security.Basically and summarized it is about letting the West deplete itself economically and militarily in Ukraine, to trigger a collapse in Europe, to force the Europeans to de-colonialize themselves from the Americans. As I said, details are in the article.
Further thoughts
I’ll summarize another few thoughts, that I didn’t want to press into any other chapter.
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From my point of view Russia will avoid, as long as possible, to fight in any further major city. Such as Kharkov, Zaporizhzhia and Odessa. These are Russian cities and Russia will do what it can, to preserve these cities and spare them from fighting. Again, that’s why the Ukrainian army will either need to be defeated on favourable ground or the country/military/logistics need to be collapsed.
There is much talk, about why Russia is not destroying logistics infrastructure, even though I constantly talking about collapsing logistics. Well, there are many reasons. As I said, it is favourable, that Ukraine is able, to commit the biggest possible effort, to supply its troops. This is a heavy burden on both, Ukraine and NATO. On the other hand, there will be a time, when Ukrainian defences collapse, when Russia will be able to quickly advance over large distances. Every destroyed piece of infrastructure is another burden at this time. Russia will need bridges and a functioning railways system. It is not about HINDERING logistics, it is about OVERSTRECHTCHING it. Remember my logistics chapter. Finally, Russia surely doesn’t plan to fight this war for years. If the Ukrainian collapse will be concluded within the next twelve months, then it would be fatal, to destroy everything possible, that would need to be rebuild anyway very soon, with Russian wealth.
The big question is, will Russia incorporate the whole territory of the former Ukraine into its composition? Well, I think not. One can’t be sure, but that’s my assumption. Why? I think Russia will annex all territories of the former Ukraine, that are culturally and historically close to Russia. The line will be somewhere west of Kiev. Where? I don’t know. But what will happen to the rest? Well, Russia will first need to take the whole territory of Ukraine, to commit denazification and demilitarization. This process could take either months or years, who knows. Think of the same process in Germany and the succeeding tribunals in Nürnberg. Russia of course will annex, what it needs and it wills to annex, right ahead. The rest will be, at least from my understanding, a newly created state, that will be fully controlled by Moscow. A puppet state. I see a possibility, that Poland could get a piece of Ukraine, after negotiations with Moscow. But certainly, the land corridor to Hungary will be under Russia’s control under any circumstances. This is a geopolitical necessity, to be able to develop and support Hungary and Serbia via land and air. Hungary is a great thorn in the side of NATO, which will contribute to greatly to the de-colonialization of Europe. Serbia is a little Russia and Russia is a big Serbia.
What about the timeframes? Well, I think we will need to look for a “break-even” point. As we learned in my former articles, Russia could theoretically end the war immediately. There are, as we learned as well, for example in this article, multi-dimensional reasons, for NOT doing this. There needs to be a point, where Europe and NATO are enough depleted and invested in its own collapse and the accumulated risk of an accidentally triggered nuclear/world war. As longer as this conflict lasts, as higher are the chances, that due to an accident, or some idiot’s sole decision (e.g., false flag with missiles “S300” from Ukraine to Poland) such a war could be triggered. This needs to be controlled closely and avoided of course. There is one more aspect. From my own point of view the most important one. The suffering of the people, living in Ukraine, without power, heating and water over winter. Since the power system is in the meanwhile largely but not fully down, this gives me an indication, that the end of the war won’t be in a too far away future. Okay, what are my estimations? It won’t help you at all… depending on what scenario, of my mentioned ones, develops, I see a large window of time. Between January 2023 in the best case and December 2023 in the worst case, everything is possible.
There is much talk, about why Russia is not destroying logistics infrastructure, even though I constantly talking about collapsing logistics. Well, there are many reasons. As I said, it is favourable, that Ukraine is able, to commit the biggest possible effort, to supply its troops. This is a heavy burden on both, Ukraine and NATO. On the other hand, there will be a time, when Ukrainian defences collapse, when Russia will be able to quickly advance over large distances. Every destroyed piece of infrastructure is another burden at this time. Russia will need bridges and a functioning railways system. It is not about HINDERING logistics, it is about OVERSTRECHTCHING it. Remember my logistics chapter. Finally, Russia surely doesn’t plan to fight this war for years. If the Ukrainian collapse will be concluded within the next twelve months, then it would be fatal, to destroy everything possible, that would need to be rebuild anyway very soon, with Russian wealth.
The big question is, will Russia incorporate the whole territory of the former Ukraine into its composition? Well, I think not. One can’t be sure, but that’s my assumption. Why? I think Russia will annex all territories of the former Ukraine, that are culturally and historically close to Russia. The line will be somewhere west of Kiev. Where? I don’t know. But what will happen to the rest? Well, Russia will first need to take the whole territory of Ukraine, to commit denazification and demilitarization. This process could take either months or years, who knows. Think of the same process in Germany and the succeeding tribunals in Nürnberg. Russia of course will annex, what it needs and it wills to annex, right ahead. The rest will be, at least from my understanding, a newly created state, that will be fully controlled by Moscow. A puppet state. I see a possibility, that Poland could get a piece of Ukraine, after negotiations with Moscow. But certainly, the land corridor to Hungary will be under Russia’s control under any circumstances. This is a geopolitical necessity, to be able to develop and support Hungary and Serbia via land and air. Hungary is a great thorn in the side of NATO, which will contribute to greatly to the de-colonialization of Europe. Serbia is a little Russia and Russia is a big Serbia.
What about the timeframes? Well, I think we will need to look for a “break-even” point. As we learned in my former articles, Russia could theoretically end the war immediately. There are, as we learned as well, for example in this article, multi-dimensional reasons, for NOT doing this. There needs to be a point, where Europe and NATO are enough depleted and invested in its own collapse and the accumulated risk of an accidentally triggered nuclear/world war. As longer as this conflict lasts, as higher are the chances, that due to an accident, or some idiot’s sole decision (e.g., false flag with missiles “S300” from Ukraine to Poland) such a war could be triggered. This needs to be controlled closely and avoided of course. There is one more aspect. From my own point of view the most important one. The suffering of the people, living in Ukraine, without power, heating and water over winter. Since the power system is in the meanwhile largely but not fully down, this gives me an indication, that the end of the war won’t be in a too far away future. Okay, what are my estimations? It won’t help you at all… depending on what scenario, of my mentioned ones, develops, I see a large window of time. Between January 2023 in the best case and December 2023 in the worst case, everything is possible.
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Well, everything I wrote about predictions in this article are nothing and void, in case, that Phase 4 or Phase 5 would be triggered before its conclusion. Then everything will change. According to the Black Mountain Phase Classification, Phase 4 would be, if single NATO countries such as Poland and the United States, would intervene in any kind without NATO mandate. Phase 5 would be, if NATO would officially step into this war. This would be definitely the trigger for World War 3.
My last thought is about negotiations. The West always denied negotiations, as long as Ukraine had the means, to defend itself at the beginning. Now, that the end is near, and undoubtedly, everyone knows that, the West is calling for negotiations. What is the logic behind this? Let the Russians suffer as many casualties as possible, spent its resources and everything in Ukraine, let Ukraine take back as much land as possible, and then negotiate a ceasefire and freeze the conflict. Well. I will put it very simple. Not gonna happen.
Results
I can’t write yet about results, since Phase 3 is still ongoing.
But in theory everything will be achieved at the end of Phase 3. Remember what I wrote in the “Annexation” chapter? If Russia loses, the world ends. The activation of the Phases 4 or 5 would exactly lead to this result. That’s why I would argue that the full achievement of the set objectives for the SMO will be achieved.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-update-03f
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My last thought is about negotiations. The West always denied negotiations, as long as Ukraine had the means, to defend itself at the beginning. Now, that the end is near, and undoubtedly, everyone knows that, the West is calling for negotiations. What is the logic behind this? Let the Russians suffer as many casualties as possible, spent its resources and everything in Ukraine, let Ukraine take back as much land as possible, and then negotiate a ceasefire and freeze the conflict. Well. I will put it very simple. Not gonna happen.
Results
I can’t write yet about results, since Phase 3 is still ongoing.
But in theory everything will be achieved at the end of Phase 3. Remember what I wrote in the “Annexation” chapter? If Russia loses, the world ends. The activation of the Phases 4 or 5 would exactly lead to this result. That’s why I would argue that the full achievement of the set objectives for the SMO will be achieved.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-update-03f
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Black Mountain Analysis
War update
Russian offensive, command shuffle and Western tanks
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A rally is held in Warsaw against the involvement of Poland in the hostilities in Ukraine. Several hundred people took part in the march.
Participants are carrying Polish state flags and posters reading "Who wants Polish blood, get out!" and "Poland chooses peace!" Some demonstrators have posters with inscriptions in Russian.
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Participants are carrying Polish state flags and posters reading "Who wants Polish blood, get out!" and "Poland chooses peace!" Some demonstrators have posters with inscriptions in Russian.
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Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a Su-24 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force near the village of Vladimirovka in the DPR.
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🪖 Russian military shot down Ukrainian MI-8 helicopter
📝 “Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter was shot down by air defense systems in Lozova, Kharkiv region,” - a briefing by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
✅ During the day, 14 Ukrainian UAVs were also destroyed in the LPR, DPR, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
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📝 “Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter was shot down by air defense systems in Lozova, Kharkiv region,” - a briefing by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
✅ During the day, 14 Ukrainian UAVs were also destroyed in the LPR, DPR, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
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Battle on the Svatove-Kreminna front continues unabated: AFU soldiers are taken to hospitals in droves and in black bags to morgues
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This is the part of the front that is not so "popular" as Artemovsk or Avdeevka, but it's starting to resemble Artemovsk for AFU. The more, the merrier...
This is the part of the front that is not so "popular" as Artemovsk or Avdeevka, but it's starting to resemble Artemovsk for AFU. The more, the merrier...
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PMC "Wagner" will send to Ukraine the corpses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Soledar on 20 trucks
One of the commanders of the "musicians," Lotos said that the shipment is being coordinated with the Ukrainian side. It is planned to transport 4-5 batches of bodies on 20 trucks, FAN reports.
In the fierce battles for Soledar, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses, and the city was literally littered with corpses. Even to the dead opponents, the "Wagners" shows a human attitude. PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin noted the need for a decent sending of bodies home.
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One of the commanders of the "musicians," Lotos said that the shipment is being coordinated with the Ukrainian side. It is planned to transport 4-5 batches of bodies on 20 trucks, FAN reports.
In the fierce battles for Soledar, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses, and the city was literally littered with corpses. Even to the dead opponents, the "Wagners" shows a human attitude. PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin noted the need for a decent sending of bodies home.
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I must be honest here—nothing to do with humanity but psychological pressure. I wonder whether Ua will accept them...
I must be honest here—nothing to do with humanity but psychological pressure. I wonder whether Ua will accept them...
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