BREAKING: Jensen Huang reportedly had an “intimate relationship” with a second Nvidia, $NVDA, employee, per Reuters.
This marks the third alleged affair for the now-former Nvidia CEO.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This marks the third alleged affair for the now-former Nvidia CEO.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, and Tesla, $TSLA, could merge as soon as December in what would be the largest merger of all time, per Bloomberg.
The companies’ boards and advisors are now reportedly “hammering out” the terms of the agreement.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The companies’ boards and advisors are now reportedly “hammering out” the terms of the agreement.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Investor positioning in silver is experiencing violent swings:
Speculative investors sold -$2.3 billion in silver futures over the 5 weeks ending November 3rd, according to CFTC data.
This was driven by -$2.6 billion in new short positions, partially offset by +$300 million in new longs.
Hedge funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs), alongside smaller traders such as retail investors, accounted for most of the sales, with each group reducing exposure to silver futures by ~$1.4 billion.
As a result, aggregate net long speculative positioning fell to +$8.0 billion, its lowest since January 2025.
Since its January 2026 peak, this figure has dropped by more than -$16.0 billion.
Are investors overly bearish on silver?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Speculative investors sold -$2.3 billion in silver futures over the 5 weeks ending November 3rd, according to CFTC data.
This was driven by -$2.6 billion in new short positions, partially offset by +$300 million in new longs.
Hedge funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs), alongside smaller traders such as retail investors, accounted for most of the sales, with each group reducing exposure to silver futures by ~$1.4 billion.
As a result, aggregate net long speculative positioning fell to +$8.0 billion, its lowest since January 2025.
Since its January 2026 peak, this figure has dropped by more than -$16.0 billion.
Are investors overly bearish on silver?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Investors buying the dip in US equity ETFs at an unprecedented pace:
The S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, attracted +$16.9 billion in inflows over 5 trading days ending November 10th, the most among major US equity ETFs.
This was followed by the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, and the total US stock market ETF, $VTI, at +$5.3 billion and +$3.3 billion, respectively.
At the same time, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPYM, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQM, attracted +$2.6 billion and +$2.2 billion.
Meanwhile, the 3x Leveraged Long Semiconductor ETF, SOXL, and the 3x Leveraged Long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, saw +$2.1 billion and +$1.4 billion in inflows.
In total, 10 major US equity ETFs attracted a massive +$37.5 billion over 5 trading days ending Tuesday.
Investors are aggressively buying the dip.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, attracted +$16.9 billion in inflows over 5 trading days ending November 10th, the most among major US equity ETFs.
This was followed by the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, and the total US stock market ETF, $VTI, at +$5.3 billion and +$3.3 billion, respectively.
At the same time, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPYM, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQM, attracted +$2.6 billion and +$2.2 billion.
Meanwhile, the 3x Leveraged Long Semiconductor ETF, SOXL, and the 3x Leveraged Long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, saw +$2.1 billion and +$1.4 billion in inflows.
In total, 10 major US equity ETFs attracted a massive +$37.5 billion over 5 trading days ending Tuesday.
Investors are aggressively buying the dip.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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US AI is generating far more revenue than Chinese AI:
As of the end of September, OpenAI and Anthropic had a combined estimated annualized revenue run rate of $105 billion.
This is nearly 10 times the $11 billion generated by 6 Chinese AI companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Z Dot ai, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax.
ByteDance accounted for 36% of this figure at $4 billion.
In Q3 alone, Anthropic's sales grew +47% QoQ, to a record $17 billion.
At the same time, OpenAI revenue surged +50% to a record $10 billion.
By comparison, DeepSeek's annualized revenue run rate doubled in September, but stands at just $1 billion.
US tech firms remain in the lead of the AI race.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
As of the end of September, OpenAI and Anthropic had a combined estimated annualized revenue run rate of $105 billion.
This is nearly 10 times the $11 billion generated by 6 Chinese AI companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Z Dot ai, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax.
ByteDance accounted for 36% of this figure at $4 billion.
In Q3 alone, Anthropic's sales grew +47% QoQ, to a record $17 billion.
At the same time, OpenAI revenue surged +50% to a record $10 billion.
By comparison, DeepSeek's annualized revenue run rate doubled in September, but stands at just $1 billion.
US tech firms remain in the lead of the AI race.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $71,000 for the first time since August 20th and selling pressure in crypto gains momentum.
Bitcoin is now down more than -19% since October 2nd. https://t.co/0sggb7RY63
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Bitcoin is now down more than -19% since October 2nd. https://t.co/0sggb7RY63
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $69,000 and ETH nears $1,900 as selling pressure accelerates in crypto.
Crypto markets have now lost -$150 billion in 48 hours. https://t.co/29QW0khxOh
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Crypto markets have now lost -$150 billion in 48 hours. https://t.co/29QW0khxOh
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: Multiple sources in the US intelligence community say that the intelligence collected on Alice Huang, the suspected spy targeting Jensen Huang, does not prove she was acting as a spy for China, per CNN.
Some officials at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have said the characterization of Alice Huang as a Chinese spy is "not entirely accurate and over-torqued."
Officials at the CIA also are "not yet convinced" that the intelligence collection on Alice Huang so far, including intercepted communications, proves she was knowingly funneling information back to Beijing.
The FBI has reportedly been investigating this affair for at least a year.
We maintain our view that Jensen Huang and Nvidia prematurely parted ways.
A complete investigation is necessary.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Some officials at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have said the characterization of Alice Huang as a Chinese spy is "not entirely accurate and over-torqued."
Officials at the CIA also are "not yet convinced" that the intelligence collection on Alice Huang so far, including intercepted communications, proves she was knowingly funneling information back to Beijing.
The FBI has reportedly been investigating this affair for at least a year.
We maintain our view that Jensen Huang and Nvidia prematurely parted ways.
A complete investigation is necessary.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: An internal post urging Nvidia’s, $NVDA, board to reinstate Jensen Huang has drawn over 1,600 comments, with the majority in “full support” of reinstating him, per WIRED.
The post urges the Board of Directors to “consider employee sentiment” regarding Jensen Huang’s departure from the company.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
The post urges the Board of Directors to “consider employee sentiment” regarding Jensen Huang’s departure from the company.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: Retail investors bought +$730 million in Nvidia, $NVDA, stock on Tuesday, their largest daily purchase since March.
This was preceded by +$590 million on Monday and followed by +$300 million on Wednesday.
In total, retail investors bought +$1.6 billion in Nvidia shares in 3 trading days ending Wednesday, retail's largest 3-day purchase in at least 12 months.
Over the same period, the 2x leveraged long Nvidia ETF, $NVDL, attracted +$401 million in inflows, putting it on track for its largest weekly intake since November 2025.
The 2x leveraged long Nvidia ETF, $NVDU, attracted +$64 million, on track for its largest weekly inflow since February 2026.
Meanwhile, during the first 30 minutes of Thursday’s session, retail investors bought +$455 million of $NVDA stock and sold -$345 million, bringing net purchases to +$111 million, their largest in any first 30 minutes of trading on record.
Retail investors are doubling down on Nvidia.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This was preceded by +$590 million on Monday and followed by +$300 million on Wednesday.
In total, retail investors bought +$1.6 billion in Nvidia shares in 3 trading days ending Wednesday, retail's largest 3-day purchase in at least 12 months.
Over the same period, the 2x leveraged long Nvidia ETF, $NVDL, attracted +$401 million in inflows, putting it on track for its largest weekly intake since November 2025.
The 2x leveraged long Nvidia ETF, $NVDU, attracted +$64 million, on track for its largest weekly inflow since February 2026.
Meanwhile, during the first 30 minutes of Thursday’s session, retail investors bought +$455 million of $NVDA stock and sold -$345 million, bringing net purchases to +$111 million, their largest in any first 30 minutes of trading on record.
Retail investors are doubling down on Nvidia.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: The US Treasury posted a -$404 billion budget deficit in October, the largest October deficit in history.
This marks a +$120 billion YoY increase and a +$337 billion surge from October 2024.
This comes as government outlays jumped +$84 billion YoY, to $773 billion, their largest for any October on record.
Defense spending was a major driver, surging +$29 billion YoY, to $129 billion, the largest monthly reading in history.
At the same time, government receipts dropped -$35 billion YoY, to $369 billion.
The US deficit crisis is accelerating.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This marks a +$120 billion YoY increase and a +$337 billion surge from October 2024.
This comes as government outlays jumped +$84 billion YoY, to $773 billion, their largest for any October on record.
Defense spending was a major driver, surging +$29 billion YoY, to $129 billion, the largest monthly reading in history.
At the same time, government receipts dropped -$35 billion YoY, to $369 billion.
The US deficit crisis is accelerating.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: October PPI Inflation rises to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022.
Core PPI Inflation was 5.0%, in-line with expectations of 5.0%.
CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation continue to push higher in the US.
All signs point toward a December rate hike.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Core PPI Inflation was 5.0%, in-line with expectations of 5.0%.
CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation continue to push higher in the US.
All signs point toward a December rate hike.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: AMD, $AMD, has outperformed Nvidia, $NVDA, by +53.2 percentage points over the last 5 trading days, the most since Nvidia’s IPO in January 1999.
Over this period, $AMD rallied +44.7%, while $NVDA dropped -8.5%.
The previous record for AMD's 5-day outperformance over Nvidia since 1999 was set in April 2016, at +49.9 percentage points.
So far in 2026, $AMD is outperforming $NVDA by +184 percentage points.
This comes as AMD is up +173.3% year-to-date, while Nvidia is down -10.7%.
AMD has been a major beneficiary of Nvidia's historic volatility.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Over this period, $AMD rallied +44.7%, while $NVDA dropped -8.5%.
The previous record for AMD's 5-day outperformance over Nvidia since 1999 was set in April 2016, at +49.9 percentage points.
So far in 2026, $AMD is outperforming $NVDA by +184 percentage points.
This comes as AMD is up +173.3% year-to-date, while Nvidia is down -10.7%.
AMD has been a major beneficiary of Nvidia's historic volatility.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Institutional investors are extremely bullish on the US equity market:
Long non-dealer positioning in US equity futures is up to +$330 billion, its 2nd-highest on record.
This metric covers asset managers, hedge funds, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), and other institutional investors.
Over the last 6 months, net long positioning in US equity futures has risen by +$100 billion.
This figure is now just $10 billion below its all-time high set in 2024.
By comparison, between 2010 and 2023, institutional positioning never exceeded $150 billion.
Institutional investors are heavily exposed to US equities.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Long non-dealer positioning in US equity futures is up to +$330 billion, its 2nd-highest on record.
This metric covers asset managers, hedge funds, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), and other institutional investors.
Over the last 6 months, net long positioning in US equity futures has risen by +$100 billion.
This figure is now just $10 billion below its all-time high set in 2024.
By comparison, between 2010 and 2023, institutional positioning never exceeded $150 billion.
Institutional investors are heavily exposed to US equities.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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US layoffs continue to slow sharply:
US job cut announcements dropped -71% YoY in October, to 43,994, the lowest October total since 2023.
Year-to-date announcements have declined -44% YoY, to 617,189, the lowest January-October total since 2022.
This is also the 8th month of 2026 with job cuts down YoY versus the corresponding month of the prior year.
Food companies led October layoffs with 9,677 cuts, while Technology has recorded the most reductions year-to-date, at 171,501, up +21% YoY.
Market and economic conditions accounted for 16,407 announced job cuts in October, or ~37% of all layoffs, bringing the year-to-date total to 130,531, overtaking AI as the most cited reason.
US employers appear to be slowing job cuts.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
US job cut announcements dropped -71% YoY in October, to 43,994, the lowest October total since 2023.
Year-to-date announcements have declined -44% YoY, to 617,189, the lowest January-October total since 2022.
This is also the 8th month of 2026 with job cuts down YoY versus the corresponding month of the prior year.
Food companies led October layoffs with 9,677 cuts, while Technology has recorded the most reductions year-to-date, at 171,501, up +21% YoY.
Market and economic conditions accounted for 16,407 announced job cuts in October, or ~37% of all layoffs, bringing the year-to-date total to 130,531, overtaking AI as the most cited reason.
US employers appear to be slowing job cuts.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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US credit stress is intensifying among the weakest-quality borrowers:
Spreads on CCC-rated and lower US corporate bonds are up to 13.3%, near the highest since the 2020 pandemic.
Since January 2026, this figure has surged +490 basis points.
As a result, these spreads have now surpassed the 2022 bear market peak of 12.9%.
For perspective, during the 2020 February-March surge, this metric peaked at 18.8%.
Meanwhile, the spread differential between CCC- and BBB-rated corporate debt has widened to ~1,200 basis points, its widest level in at least 5 years.
This means investors are demanding ~12 percentage points more in compensation to hold the lowest-rated debt rather than first-notch investment-grade corporate bonds.
Cracks are spreading quickly through the lowest-quality credit.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Spreads on CCC-rated and lower US corporate bonds are up to 13.3%, near the highest since the 2020 pandemic.
Since January 2026, this figure has surged +490 basis points.
As a result, these spreads have now surpassed the 2022 bear market peak of 12.9%.
For perspective, during the 2020 February-March surge, this metric peaked at 18.8%.
Meanwhile, the spread differential between CCC- and BBB-rated corporate debt has widened to ~1,200 basis points, its widest level in at least 5 years.
This means investors are demanding ~12 percentage points more in compensation to hold the lowest-rated debt rather than first-notch investment-grade corporate bonds.
Cracks are spreading quickly through the lowest-quality credit.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: Elon Musk announces that a petition is currently underway to reinstate Jensen Huang as CEO of Nvidia, $NVDA.
Musk says he will be signing the petition and supports Jensen Huang's return to the company.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Musk says he will be signing the petition and supports Jensen Huang's return to the company.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: The US FAA has issued an advisory grounding all flights nationwide, citing “extraordinary circumstances.”
No further information has been provided.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
No further information has been provided.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: China’s trade surplus surged +$84 billion YoY in the first 10 months of 2026, or +8.8%, to a record $1.04 trillion.
This marks the 3rd consecutive YoY increase for this period of the year, totalling +$348 billion.
China’s 2026 surplus has already surpassed every previous full-year total except 2025, when it rose to a record $1.18 trillion.
In October alone, the trade surplus increased +$17 billion YoY, to $105 billion.
This comes as exports jumped +35% YoY, to $412 billion, their 3rd-highest on record, while imports surged +42% YoY, to $307 billion, their 2nd-highest on record.
China's dominance in international trade is accelerating amid the AI investment wave.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This marks the 3rd consecutive YoY increase for this period of the year, totalling +$348 billion.
China’s 2026 surplus has already surpassed every previous full-year total except 2025, when it rose to a record $1.18 trillion.
In October alone, the trade surplus increased +$17 billion YoY, to $105 billion.
This comes as exports jumped +35% YoY, to $412 billion, their 3rd-highest on record, while imports surged +42% YoY, to $307 billion, their 2nd-highest on record.
China's dominance in international trade is accelerating amid the AI investment wave.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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