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🕯 Bitcoin and the Business Cycle

This chart overlays Bitcoin’s price with the business cycle oscillator - a macro tool tracking expansions (green) and contractions (red).

Here’s what stands out:


➡️ Every single Bitcoin cycle top (2013, 2017, 2021) aligned exactly with the peak of the red bar section.

➡️ Those peaks marked overheated macro conditions - late-stage liquidity, risk assets maxed, and BTC euphoria.

➡️ Today? We’re still deep in the green expansion phase. Historically, this is where Bitcoin grinds higher while liquidity remains loose.

Bitcoin doesn’t top in the middle of growth phases.


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🏆 Ethereum just broke a record most people don’t know about.

It became the fastest major asset in history to hit a $500B market cap.

➡️$ETH - 5.8 years.
➡️$AAPL - 35 years.
➡️$BTC - 12 years.

Crypto is the fastest growing asset class in history.


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Billionaire Ray Dalio expresses a preference for moving away from debt assets and instead investing in hard money such as gold and Bitcoin.
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JUST IN: $354 million has been liquidated from the cryptocurrency market within the last hour.
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CT makes you lose your sense of money.

$10,000 in this industry might feel like a small amount to some people, but it’s an annual salary in many countries.

Regardless of how successful you become, never forget where you started.

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🐋 A major player bought and staked $2.5B worth of ETH.

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🌐 Why build new chains if Ethereum exists?

Despite Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and BSC covering most of Web3, new blockchains keep appearing.

The reason: today’s networks don’t solve three core problems - gas payments in stablecoins, easy fiat off-ramps, and compliance.


➡️ Plasma – Bitcoin-secured EVM sidechain for USDT transfers, with free stablecoin payments, gas in custom tokens, and onchain cards already used in Africa.

➡️ Stable – Bitfinex & Tether’s L1 with GasUSDT as native fee token, free P2P transfers, and debit card integration on the roadmap.

➡️ Converge – L2 by Ethena & Securitize, built on Arbitrum + Celestia. Gas in USDe and USDtb, ENA staking, with RWA funds and DeFi protocols lined up.

➡️ Codex – L2 for stablecoin payments and FX, optimized gas and compliance, payroll focus, finalizing on Ethereum.

➡️ Noble – Cosmos-native, designed for USDC in IBC but shifted to HyperEVM farming instead of RWA.

➡️ Arc – Circle’s chain with 3,000 TPS, sub-350ms finality, USDC gas, optional privacy, and anti-MEV roadmap.

All share common traits: stablecoin gas, near-instant finality, free transfers, and direct banking integration.

The real question: will these “corporate chains” finally solve payments and compliance, or just become new vehicles for moving money under the radar?


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Arthur Hayes just stood on stage in Tokyo and threw out a number - 126x upside for $HYPE.

➡️ $5,161 per token if his math plays out.

Bull or not, that’s the kind of prediction you’re never really ready for.


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JUST IN: Trump Media plans to launch a rewards system on the Truth Social and Truth+ platforms, utilizing the Crypto.com digital wallet infrastructure and adopting the Cronos (CRO) digital currency as a utility token.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump Jr. invests a substantial amount described as "double digit millions" in Polymarket.
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🏠 Real estate dwarfs every asset class

At an estimated $330T, global real estate is bigger than all equities and debt securities combined.

➡️ Global debt: $315T
➡️ Fiat: $120T
➡️ Stocks: $110T
➡️ Gold: $17T
➡️ Bitcoin: $1.1T

If tokenisation of real estate under RWA takes off, the upside makes every other market look small.


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JUST IN: dYdX has released a new roadmap, including plans for Telegram trading by September 2025.

• Upcoming features: social login, batch orders, partner fee sharing, DYDX staking.
• Integration with Osmosis and performance boosts are included.
• Future developments: spot trading (initially with Solana), USDT/Solana/fiat deposits, and RWA perpetuals.

The roadmap could positively influence investor expectations, potentially boosting dYdX's market presence and enhancing its competitive position.
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Crypto Insider
JUST IN: Trump Media plans to launch a rewards system on the Truth Social and Truth+ platforms, utilizing the Crypto.com digital wallet infrastructure and adopting the Cronos (CRO) digital currency as a utility token.
🔍 ZachXBT hints at hidden Crypto․com incident

Onchain detective ZachXBT claims Crypto․com suffered a major incident in the past that was never disclosed publicly.

No details yet, just the suggestion that one of the industry’s biggest exchanges may have kept a serious event under wraps.


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I only made a 2x so far


Learn to be grateful.


99% of people would be over the moon with their money doubled.

Majority of people lose money trading.

Learn to respect what you receive, then you’ll receive it in abundance.

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🔑 MetaMask adds one-click login

MetaMask now lets users create, restore, and access wallets using Google or Apple ID. The update makes onboarding as simple as logging into an app.

➡️ Wallet setup and recovery in one click
➡️ No need to manage seed phrases at the start
➡️ Aimed at lowering friction for new users

The move brings Web3 closer to Web2 convenience, but also raises questions about how much security traders are willing to trade for simplicity.


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📈 Footprints: the hidden layer of orderflow

Candles only tell you where price moved. Footprints show how it moved - who hit the bid, who lifted the offer, and how much size traded at each level.

➡️ They reveal where real aggression happened, not just where price closed

➡️ Show absorption zones and trapped traders you’d never see on a standard chart

➡️ Let you spot forced exits and failed moves in real time

➡️ Useful at key highs and lows to decide if a breakout holds or if mean reversion is coming

Most traders ignore footprints in crypto, which is why they’re powerful.

Instead of guessing, you see the flow beneath the price, and that edge can decide if you fade or follow the move.


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📊 BTC long-term holders cashing out

Glassnode data shows long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in nearly every previous one - only 2016–17 was higher.

➡️ LTH realized profit this cycle: 3.27M BTC
➡️ Peak of 2017 cycle: 3.93M BTC
➡️ Elevated profit-taking = higher sell-side pressure
➡️ Signals align with late-phase cycle behavior

When the old coins move, it usually means the easy part of the cycle is over.


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