$TWT Long Update

Holding up well so far

Stop moved closer to entry, now just below the 1.155 low.

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Dear crypto holder, do whatever you want with this, but...

➡️ $2,000 stimulus to Americans
➡️ Government shut down ends
➡️ QT ends
➡️ Fed cuts rates
➡️ Treasury liquidity injections
➡️ Liquidity flips business cycle to expansion
➡️ Clarity Act passes
➡️ Altcoin ETF tsunami begins

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⚡️ Crypto Watchlist for the week

➡️ $LINK - Chainlink Rewards Season 1, via which LINK stakers will get airdrops, starts on Nov. 11

➡️ $MNT - Tokenized equities will soon launch on Mantle in partnership with Backed and Bybit

➡️ $INJ - Injective's Altria Upgrade, one of its biggest upgrades so far, will go live on Nov. 11

➡️ $XRP - A spot XRP ETF is rumored to launch next week

➡️ $S - Flying Tulip ICO is likely to start soon, as its accredited investor quiz went live

➡️ $ADA - Cardano Summit will start on Nov. 12

➡️ $LDO - Lido Finance's token holder update is coming on Nov. 11

➡️ $HUMA - Huma Finance will launch automated looping for PST soon

➡️ Macro events - U.S. CPI data will be released on Nov. 13

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📉 The 4-Year Cycle Is a Myth

Crypto doesn’t follow a fixed halving rhythm — it follows liquidity and the broader business cycle.

➡️ The ISM PMI, a key measure of economic strength, has stayed under pressure for almost three years, showing weak growth

➡️ Tight financial conditions, high rates, a strong dollar, and expensive oil keep liquidity trapped

➡️ Without fresh liquidity, risk assets like crypto can’t build sustained momentum

The pattern is clear: bull markets return only when money does.

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📈 We’re not at the top yet

Every market top ends in euphoria, not fear. If people are still nervous, it’s not the peak.

➡️ Tops happen when everyone’s sure the market can’t fall
➡️ Fear shows up before the real mania
➡️ Just look at the gold chart - that’s what euphoria actually looks like

Until we see that kind of madness, this cycle’s not done.

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➕ Trump Media Added to Arkham

Trump Media and Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social and trading under the ticker $DJT, has been added to Arkham.

🐋 According to the data, it holds over $1.17 billion in Bitcoin.

That makes Trump’s media company one of the biggest public holders of BTC alongside the top corporate names in the market.

Tracking link 👉 here 👈

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⭕️ Bottom or just a pause before the next storm?

The market just went through two brutal weeks. A massive Balancer hack, the longest US government shutdown in history, full uncertainty everywhere. Pressure hit every coin across the board.

🐋 Big wallets started locking in profits while Bitcoin was still holding above 100k. The drop below that level didn’t last long, and BTC managed to defend its 50-week average. Now there’s a bit of optimism, but no one knows if it’s a real recovery or just a breather.

➡️ Two weeks ago everyone celebrated ATH and talked about Uptober and Moonvember
➡️ On October 10, the market got hit by one of the largest liquidation waves ever
➡️ November started with the worst sentiment since FTX collapsed

🗣️ Behind the scenes, there’s more than just macro chaos. Rumors about Wintermute’s possible bankruptcy keep spreading. They’re said to be preparing legal action against Binance while dumping parts of their portfolio. Mid-sized funds got dragged down too, selling everything to survive. That’s why alts are bleeding harder than usual.

📈 Bitcoin just tested strong support. Ethereum is still lost, while Solana took the spotlight. October 10 showed which network stayed reliable under pressure and it wasn’t ETH.

For now the market is holding up, and short-term optimism is back. Add Trump’s talk about stimulus checks, the end of the shutdown, and a temporary pause in trade wars, and the picture doesn’t look hopeless.

Whether this is a bottom or just calm before another hit - we’ll find out soon.

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📊 Wintermute’s Portfolio Shift: What the Market Maker Is Actually Buying

On November 8, market maker Wintermute sharply increased positions across Binance, Coinbase, Circle and Kraken. The total portfolio is about $550 million, and several tokens grew by 60–120% in just one day.

📝 The coins with the biggest inflows:

➡️Fartcoin $9.5M
➡️ARC $3.55M
➡️Jelly Jelly $1.58M
➡️ZRO $1.46M
➡️PNUT $1.36M
➡️BNB $1M
➡️PEPE $961K
➡️PUMP $958K
➡️TRADOOR $836K
➡️W $723K
➡️GRIFFAIN $467K
➡️SNX $568K
➡️RAY $336K
➡️IMX $507K
➡️WLD $309K
➡️PYTH $245K
➡️ONDO $220K
➡️INJ $220K
➡️ACT $171K
➡️AIZBT $157K
➡️GALA $143K
➡️SAHARA $139K
➡️PENDLE $129K

At the same time, Wintermute almost completely left Aster, Filecoin and Fetch.

The largest positions remain in SOL ($110M), BTC ($35M), ETH ($10M), as well as LINK, ARB, TRX, COMP, MET and TRUMP. These holdings are being slowly reduced, not dumped.

❕ It doesn’t automatically mean they are bullish on the new names. They might just be increasing liquidity or rebalancing books. Still, the list clearly shows what is active in their system and what is being drained.

And one question remains.

Where are all those “serious” future tech giants like Linea, Stark, Chia, Plasma?

Nowhere to be found.

Wintermute and Jump Crypto are not trying to look smart. They just make money. And judging by the numbers, they are very good at it.

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📈 Shutdown Over, Markets Breathing, Crypto Back on Track

The US Senate ended the shutdown, and the market finally relaxed a bit. Indices are green, funds are moving again, and the usual players are active.

➡️ ETF flows
BTC +$1.2M, ETH 0, SOL +$6.8M.
Solana funds haven’t had a losing day since October 28. Total inflow now $342.6M.

➡️ Stablecoin regulation in the UK
The Bank of England published its proposal for systemic stablecoins.
Licenses become mandatory, with reserves held 60% in short-term bonds and 40% in Bank of England accounts.

➡️ Ledger plans IPO in 2026
After a record wave of hacks this year ($2.2B stolen in 2025 already), hardware wallets are back in demand.
CEO Pascal Gauthier says revenue hit triple-digit millions. Last valuation $1.5B.

➡️ Saylor keeps stacking
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) raised €620M instead of €405M thanks to strong demand.
Added 397 BTC for $45.6M. Total holdings now 641,205 BTC.

➡️ Chainalysis report “Geography of Crypto 2025”
Top countries by crypto adoption: India, US, Pakistan, Vietnam, Brazil, followed by several Eastern European markets in the top ten.

➡️ Coinbase launches token sales
First sale — Monad ($MON), 7.5% of supply at a $2.5B valuation, plus a 3% airdrop for early users.

Token already trading about 2x higher on pre-market.

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