🔥 Where We Are in the Cycle: Bull vs Bear Arguments in One Place

The market is split again. One side sees a tired uptrend and heavy macro risks. The other sees structural support, improving liquidity and the usual pain that forms cycle lows. Here is the current balance of arguments.

🐻 Bear arguments

⏺ The 107k level on BTC acted as clean resistance
⏺ Price sits below most major trend levels except the weekly one
⏺ Long term holders and classic four year cycle sellers keep unloading
⏺ Crypto continues to underperform traditional markets with weak correlation
⏺ The MSTR premium collapsed from 2.5x to roughly 1.0x and buying from Saylor is far smaller than before
⏺ US labor data keeps softening
⏺ Equity indices look stretched at record highs and can drop fast on weak macro

🐂 Bull arguments

➡️ BTC trades above the 55 week moving average
➡️ Above the yearly vWAP that institutions use for trend entries
➡️ Holding the long weekly trend line from 2022
➡️ The 90 day gold lag window is close to finishing
➡️ BTC to gold sits near a two year range low
➡️ Copper to gold sits at multi year lows
➡️ Talks of new stimulus checks
➡️ QT has ended
➡️ Rate cuts remain likely
➡️ The US economy still grows
➡️ Liquidity returns after the shutdown
➡️ The Clarity Act improves regulatory clarity
➡️ Stablecoin adoption can attract large new flows
➡️ ETH revenue and burn stay strong with institutional DeFi narratives picking up
➡️ The White House has political interest in crypto performing well
➡️ IWM looks close to breaking a four to five year range
➡️ Many alts already dropped more than seventy five percent
➡️ Sentiment is extremely poor which often appears near cycle lows
➡️ The death cross frequently prints at bottoms
➡️ BTC trades half a standard deviation below the anchor vWAP from the last major bottom

🎯 What this might mean

🟢 Underperformance versus gold can flip into future outperformance
🟢 Four year sellers usually turn into buyers when the market holds long enough
🟢 Most of the MSTR premium collapse is already behind us

The signals remain split, but the tension fits the middle of a cycle where both narratives sound convincing and neither gives a clear victory.

🐴 Join the White Horse

🔥 Nvidia stock now tradable on Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid has launched $NVDA-PERP - perpetual contracts tracking Nvidia, the world’s most valuable public company.

➡️ Up to 10x leverage

➡️ 24/7/365 trading

➡️ Listed via an affiliated market creator through HIP3

HIP3 is a real milestone for tokenized markets. For years everyone talked about RWA integration, but now traders can actually access NASDAQ-100 perps, with Tesla, gold, and even Robinhood expected next.

🐴 Join the White Horse

🇬🇧 China’s “Crypto Queen” sentenced to nearly 12 years in UK prison

A London court has sentenced Chinese entrepreneur Zhimin Qian to 11 years and 8 months for laundering $6.4 billion through Bitcoin, the largest crypto money laundering case in UK history.

➡️ Qian was found guilty of converting funds from defrauded Chinese investors into BTC

➡️ Police seized 61,000 BTC, a record confiscation for the UK

➡️ Her fake company Bluesky Greet promised 200% returns from mining and tech ventures

➡️ She lived in a £17,000 per month mansion in Hampstead after fleeing China in 2017

Authorities called her the architect of a greed driven scheme. A civil trial in 2026 will decide what happens to the seized crypto, now worth more than 20 times its original value.

🐴 Join the White Horse

🛍 Winklevoss twins bet big on Zcash

The Winklevoss brothers, known from the early Facebook story, have launched DAT and bought $50M worth of ZEC at an average price of $245.

➡️ Plan to accumulate up to 5% of total ZEC supply

➡️ Already hold around 70,000 BTC (~$7B) from early buys under $100

➡️ ZEC is the first coin beyond Bitcoin they have backed this actively

A rare move from OG Bitcoin billionaires and a big moment for Zcash.

🐴 Join the White Horse

⏳ A Chronology of Crypto Innovations and Hype Cycles

➡️2014: Altcoins
➡️2015: Ethereum Launch
➡️2017: Bitcoin Forks
➡️2017: dApps
➡️2017: ICOs
➡️2017: Bitcoin as Digital Gold
➡️2019: IEOs
➡️2019: CBDCs
➡️2019: DeFi Foundations
➡️2020: Bitcoin as a Macro Play
➡️2020: Yield Farming
➡️2020: DeFi
➡️2021: Liquid Staking
➡️2021: NFTs
➡️2021: GameFi
➡️2021: IDOs
➡️2021: Alt L1s
➡️2021: DAOs
➡️2021: Metaverse
➡️2022: Layer 2 Scaling
➡️2023: Ordinals
➡️2023: Bridges
➡️2023: SocialFi
➡️2024: ETFs
➡️2024: Memecoins
➡️2024: Pump Fun
➡️2024: Telegram Bots
➡️2024: BtcFi
➡️2024: DePIN
➡️2024: Restaking
➡️2024: Clicker Apps
➡️2024: AI Bots
➡️2024: HyperLiquid
➡️2025: RWAs
➡️2025: Stablecoins & PayFi
➡️2025: DATs
➡️2025: Regulatory Clarity
➡️2025: DEXes
➡️2025: ICOs Revival
➡️2025: Prediction Markets
➡️2025: Privacy
➡️2025: Equities
➡️2025: AI Agents

What comes next?

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We’ve finally lost 100k. This is significant for 2 main reasons.

1️⃣ This was the last stand for HTF bulls to call the bull market structure intact. The 50W trendline has now officially been broken for the first time since the cycle started in 2022.

2️⃣ 100k is a very psychological level. After being defended 3/4 times and finally giving way, it will now be seen as resistance.

We have no interest bidding this dip given what and will look for low 90s as the first area of interest.

Preservation mode time again.

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Good point.

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Retirement postponed again.

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Airdrops used to make you rich.
Now they make you tired.

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"I need to make it soon so my real life can begin"

Your real life has already begun.

Money isn't the main barrier from you doing what you truly want.
It's time, focus and energy.

Stop waiting to hit a financial milestone. Start living today.

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Every father’s worst nightmare.

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Lol

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This 👆

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