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πŸ“‰ Fed Rate Cuts vs ETH

Every influencer is calling rate cuts the start of β€œalt season.” But history paints a more complicated picture.

➑️ 2024: September saw a classic pump and dump

➑️ November: large rally likely tied to Trump’s election win

➑️ December: local top followed by an 8-month drawdown of -66%

➑️ 2025 projection: another potential correction near September, around -17%

ETH is still up 67% since the first rate cut, but rate cuts have rarely been pure bullish catalysts. They often mark slowing growth and liquidity stress.

With Trump-Xi tariff deadlines this weekend, one political headline could flip sentiment fast. Rate cuts may spark rallies, but macro still calls the shots.


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🧠 Sector Watchlist for the Next Cycle

Key narratives shaping where crypto capital and innovation are likely to move next. These sectors combine real-world utility with strong on-chain fundamentals.

➑️ AI Agents β€” Autonomous programs that can think, decide, and transact on-chain

➑️ Robotics β€” Physical automation integrated with blockchain and AI

➑️ Prediction Markets β€” Platforms where users bet on future outcomes

➑️ D4Ts (Digital Asset Treasuries) β€” On-chain reserves managing digital wealth

➑️ Stablecoins β€” Currencies pegged to stable assets enabling global payments

➑️ Privacy β€” Protocols focused on protecting user data and transactions

➑️ RWA / Asset Tokenization β€” Bringing real-world assets on-chain

➑️ Perp DEXs β€” Platforms offering perpetual futures markets

➑️ ICM (Internet Capital Markets) β€” The next layer for decentralized finance infrastructure

➑️ Revenue-Bearing Protocols β€” Projects generating real on-chain income

These are the narratives to watch as the market matures and liquidity begins to rotate into fundamental value.


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πŸ•” FOMC Press conference in 5 minutes

Most important Fed meeting since the last Fed meeting.

Get ready for volatility.


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JUST IN: Consensys, the developer of Metamask, has chosen JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to lead its initial public offering, according to Axios Pro.

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GM

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πŸ“Š Ultimate Perp DEX Volume Map

A full snapshot of the current perpetual DEX landscape, ranked by daily trading volume. A clean view of which platforms are leading liquidity right now and which are still flying under the radar.

➑️ $5B+ Daily Volume
Lighter β€’ Aster β€’ Hyperliquid β€’ edgeX

➑️ $1B+ Daily Volume
Pacifica β€’ Backpack β€’ ApeX β€’ Reya β€’ Variational

➑️ $500M+ Daily Volume
Paradex β€’ Extended β€’ GRVT β€’ MYX β€’ Jupiter β€’ Orderly

➑️ $200M+ Daily Volume
Drift β€’ Helix β€’ dYdX

➑️ $50M+ Daily Volume
Avantis β€’ BasedOne β€’ Satori β€’ Phantom β€’ GMX β€’ Ostium β€’ Gains Network β€’ TradePerps

➑️ $10M+ Daily Volume
Hibachi β€’ KiloEx β€’ Vest β€’ Merkle β€’ MetaMask β€’ Axiom β€’ Defx β€’ Bullpen β€’ Ethereal

➑️ Unreleased
BulkTrade β€’ Perpl β€’ Byreal

Perp DEX competition is heating up fast. Liquidity is starting to consolidate around a few strong players, while new entrants are still betting on niche mechanics and token launches.


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⭕️ Copper/Gold Ratio Signals Risk Turn

The copper-to-gold ratio has long mirrored Bitcoin’s price cycles and it’s flashing an important macro signal right now.

➑️ Copper represents industrial growth and risk appetite
➑️ Gold reflects safety and defensive positioning
➑️ When the ratio trends down, it signals a risk-off environment
➑️ Historically, BTC bottoms have aligned with these downtrends

The ratio is falling again, pointing to an ongoing defensive phase. Historically, that’s been followed by powerful risk-on reversals. If history rhymes, BTC may be setting up for the next major move higher.


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πŸ“Š Liquidity and Timeframes

Lower timeframes often create noise. Moves look sharp, random, and illiquid β€” driven by short-term traders and low-volume spikes.

➑️ The smaller the timeframe, the more random the price behavior
➑️ Higher timeframes smooth out those micro-swings and reveal structure
➑️ Liquidity imbalances, key levels, and clean breaks are easier to spot on HTFs
➑️ What looks chaotic on the 15m chart often aligns perfectly on the 4H

When the market feels confusing, zoom out. Most clarity in trading doesn’t come from better indicators, but from better perspective.


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JUST IN: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon affirms that cryptocurrency, blockchain, stablecoins, JPMorgan Deposit Coin, and smart contracts are legitimate innovations that will be adopted by everyone.

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πŸ“Š Useful Indicators to Watch

Good traders don’t just track price, they track what drives it. These tools give insight into sentiment, positioning, and capital flow across the market.

➑️ Loris Tools Funding Rates β€” Shows historical and live funding across exchanges. Great for spotting sentiment extremes and potential funding arbitrage setups.

➑️ Polymarket Analytics β€” Leaderboards reveal how profitable accounts are positioned across macro and event markets. Useful for gauging crowd sentiment and prediction-based probabilities.

➑️ Hyperliquid Whale Tracker β€” Real-time data from CoinGlass on whale positioning, leverage levels, and trader PnL. Helps visualize how aggressive the market really is.

➑️ Index Performance Benchmark β€” Tracks how crypto majors move against other asset classes like gold or equities. Highlights where liquidity is flowing and when crypto starts outperforming.

These dashboards won’t replace your strategy, but they sharpen context, turning data into conviction.


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JUST IN: Solana rang the closing bell at the NYSE.

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JUST IN: Jim Cramer posed for a photo with Solana co-founders Anatoly Yakovenko and Raj Gokal, along with investor Kyle Samani.

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JUST IN: Michael Burry states, "Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play."

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JUST IN: Sam Bankman-Fried and his team allege that FTX was never bankrupt, even when its lawyers placed it into bankruptcy.

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It is likely that we only have ~3 years remaining where 95% of human labor is actually valuable (i.e. earns you money).

Most people haven’t realized this yet.

It is also likely that this will be the end of our current iteration of labor-based capitalism.


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JUST IN: Revolut has launched 1:1 USD-to-stablecoin exchanges with no fees or spreads for its 65 million users, supporting USDC and USDT across six blockchains. This move could potentially set a new industry standard for seamless crypto conversions.

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πŸ“‰ Seasoned Sellers Step In

Bitcoin has been unable to reclaim $126k as long-term holders continue steady distribution. Glassnode data shows experienced investors taking profits after months of accumulation, creating persistent sell pressure.

➑️ Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B per day in July to $2–3B by early October

➑️ Selling has been gradual and sustained, not panic-driven

➑️ The 6–12 month cohort accounts for over 50% of total sell pressure

➑️ Their average cost basis sits between $93k and $96k β€” a critical support zone

These holders bought during late 2024’s election period and are now realizing gains near the highs.

A breakdown below $93k would likely mark their point of maximum pain and possibly the next major reset for Bitcoin’s cycle.


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