Forwarded from wartears
We would like to present the English version of the math model of AFU losses.
Past week we posted an article in Russian and presented our estimations for Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) losses and total personnel numbers. Now that we have received feedback, we present our translation of the entire article.
In it we apply statistical methods to our database of more than 125,000 records to produce independent estimations of how much people are fighting on the side of Ukraine, how much were killed and how much were captured. The model is based solely on the data we have on our hands and does not rely on any third-party guesses or estimations.
That being said, our estimations on 03.11.2022:
- killed in action: 106,209 combatants (+5,686 since the past week)
- captured: 24,348 combatants (+1,408 since the past week)
- active AFU personnel: 364,919 combatants (+8,497 since the past week).
The details and charts with daily numbers are available in the publication on our website.
#mathmodel_en
Past week we posted an article in Russian and presented our estimations for Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) losses and total personnel numbers. Now that we have received feedback, we present our translation of the entire article.
In it we apply statistical methods to our database of more than 125,000 records to produce independent estimations of how much people are fighting on the side of Ukraine, how much were killed and how much were captured. The model is based solely on the data we have on our hands and does not rely on any third-party guesses or estimations.
That being said, our estimations on 03.11.2022:
- killed in action: 106,209 combatants (+5,686 since the past week)
- captured: 24,348 combatants (+1,408 since the past week)
- active AFU personnel: 364,919 combatants (+8,497 since the past week).
The details and charts with daily numbers are available in the publication on our website.
#mathmodel_en
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Forwarded from wartears
[Русская версия]
Our estimations on 08.11.2022 based on the model we published:
- killed in action: 112,919 combatants (*);
- captured: 26,900 combatants (+187 since the past week);
- active AFU personnel: 339,716 combatants (*).
Project statistics:
- the number of confirmed records: KIA - 5,019 (+270 in the past two weeks); captured - 5,772 (-2 in two weeks, a few #exchange happened);
- search requests received: 4,268 (+95 in two weeks) (multiple requests on the same person are counted as a single request);
- for 1,220 (+117) requests we provided information,
- probability to find something upon request: 28.6% (+2.2%) (roughly 1 in 4).
(*) - we choose not to publish weekly change as they are mostly caused by pseudo-dead from lists of posthumously awarded (we're still working on them). Another factor in the slight lowering of our estimations is the noticeable growth of us successfully finding people whose relatives requested to search for.
#statistics #mathmodel
Our estimations on 08.11.2022 based on the model we published:
- killed in action: 112,919 combatants (*);
- captured: 26,900 combatants (+187 since the past week);
- active AFU personnel: 339,716 combatants (*).
Project statistics:
- the number of confirmed records: KIA - 5,019 (+270 in the past two weeks); captured - 5,772 (-2 in two weeks, a few #exchange happened);
- search requests received: 4,268 (+95 in two weeks) (multiple requests on the same person are counted as a single request);
- for 1,220 (+117) requests we provided information,
- probability to find something upon request: 28.6% (+2.2%) (roughly 1 in 4).
(*) - we choose not to publish weekly change as they are mostly caused by pseudo-dead from lists of posthumously awarded (we're still working on them). Another factor in the slight lowering of our estimations is the noticeable growth of us successfully finding people whose relatives requested to search for.
#statistics #mathmodel