A large scale ballistic strike on Kyiv is underway. I can’t cover it, but please heed all warnings.

Any Kh-47M2 Kinzhal launches were simulated.

Preliminary missile totals include 18 Iskander-M SRBMs (some of which were likely S400 decoys), and 3 Zircon hypersonic cruises on Kyiv.

There were also 4 Kalibr ship-launched cruises that impacted Zaporizhzhya city along with 2 Hwasong-11A SRBMs.

Unfortunately, the intercept rate for this strike was 0%.

Further south, Russian forces continue to consolidate their hold on Mala Tokmachka, 60 per cent of which is now firmly under Russian control. This has enabled Russian troops to intensify their operations in Preobrazhenka, where they have taken the first streets to the east of the town; and in Orikhiv, where they have taken control of the grain elevator, the stadium and part of the former Orikhivsilmash plant, up to the junction of Myru and Pokrovska streets, meaning that 35 per cent of the town has been captured.
Furthermore, the Russians have made progress from the west, pushing the fighting deeper into Novopavlivka and into the western half of Novoandriivka. This has been made possible following the capture of further plantations, wooded areas and the former quarry, from where an encircling manoeuvre is being carried out against Orikhiv.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.56508467145532%2C35.79545327106337&z=12 ]

Suriyak confirms my reports of an advance on the western flank of Orikhiv into Novopavlivka.

Plumes of smoke can be seen rising over Kyiv following the impact of around two-dozen ballistic missiles and Zircons.

Situation on the Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast:

Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive north of Lyman, and have made additional tactically important advances, crossing into Luhansk Oblast and coming close to eliminating the Russian Zherebets River bridgehead.

In the north, after recapturing the village of Hrekivka, Ukrainian forces continued to advance deeper into Luhansk Oblast, pushing southeast down a tributary of the Zherebets River and each into the forests west of Makiivka, working to push the remaining Russian forces out of their strongpoints between Hrekivka and Makiivka. Simultaneously, other assault groups were able to break through Russian lines east of Novomykhailivka, entering a number of forested areas along the Donetsk-Luhansk regional border, prompting Russia to retreat from the newly formed salient southwest of Hrekivka. The loss of these forward positions has allowed Ukraine to begin supporting their push east of Hrekivka by attacking in an easterly direction from the Novomykhailivka area, entering advancing towards the village of Balka Zhuravka (formerly called Nevske).

The advance on Balka Zhuravka is taking place from both the northwest and west. From the west, Ukrainian assault groups consolidated in the forests east of Katerynivka and broke through to the larger forests northwest of Novolyubivka, which they are now storming from multiple directions. This has allowed some Ukrainian DRG groups to cross the Zherebets River via Novolyubivka and begin operating in the area of Balka Zhuravka and Terny, east of the river.

To the south, Ukrainian forces continued advancing down the gulley stretching southeast from Katerynivka to Novosadove, reaching the Zherebets River at a new point, and beginning fighting for the forested areas north of Ivanivka. Other assault groups managed to capture a series of strongpoints in the forests west of Ivanivka and are now working to isolate the remaining Russian formations entrenched along the western bank of the Zherebets River.

Further south, the Ukrainians entrenched in the western part of Kolodyazi and have almost cleared the rest of the village. Other assault groups broke through Russian defences east of Stavky, penetrating northeast for over 5 kilometres, recapturing the village of Myrne. Clearing operations against the remaining scattered Russian positions outside Kolodyazi are ongoing in order to begin the final assault south of Ivanivka. Additionally, following weeks of attacks, Ukrainian forces managed to establish a foothold in northwestern Zarichne, which they are now using to try infiltrate across the Zherebets River into the Torske Fish Farm, and south towards the centre of Zarichne, where they are facing fierce resistance from Russian defenders.

To the southwest, Ukrainian forces launched a new series of counterattacks closer to Lyman itself, where they managed to clear the fields south of Stavky and gain a foothold in the western part of the large Pynkov Gulley. From here, they are infiltrating east along the forests in the gulley, attempting to reach the western part of Zarichne. This is being supported by additional attacks into the forests north of the gulley. Additionally, the Russian infiltrators in the northern part of Lyman were finally cleared, allowing Ukraine to re-establish control over the remaining fields north of the city as well, further pushing the Russians away from the city limits.

Further south, Ukrainian assault groups cleared the earlier Russian infiltrations into the area of the highway south of Lyman and initiated new counterattacks towards the Lyman-Siversk Highway, which they were able to reach from the direction of Brusivka and Dibrova. Heavy fighting continues for the Ozerne area and the strongpoints along the highway southwest of Yampil, without any major changes in the frontline.

+ ~83.16 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map: amkmapping.com

Another Russian mapper (Divgen) has admitted to the loss of the Russian salient north of Lyman.

The Ukrainian command has sent reinforcements to Orikhiv to try stabilise the rapidly deteriorating situation.

It's unclear which sector of the frontline they were pulled from. Perhaps the Komar direction.

This is entirely expected. I'm glad this has been done, but i worry it could be too late.

Komar direction, Dnipropetrovsk/S Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian forces continue limited counterattacks in the vicinity of Komar and toward Velika Novosilka. The AFU have completely recaptured the village of Maliivka (Dnipro oblast), and reentered the villages of Novoheorhiivka, Komyshuvakha and Shevchenko.

Although counterattacking operations are dying down, limited opportunistic pushes by the AFU continue.

(As reported by AMK, assault groups were likely pulled from Komar to help stabilise in Orikhiv).

Western flank of Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhya oblast.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian General staff, in their official report, made mention of repelling a Russian assault in the direction of Zarichne (highlighted in blue).

As the situation around Orikhiv (especially this western flank) continues to deteriorate concerningly, this development represents yet another Russian deep penetration of AFU lines.

The situation here may continue to destabilise if reinforcements do not arrive in time.

MiG-31K airborne. A threat of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missile launches is present.

Nil threat. Training missions are being carried out.

The SBU has claimed that today, as part of a “special operation”, numerous Russian military helicopters situated at Rostov Central airbase (Rostov city) were struck and destroyed by Ukrainian long range strike UAVs. Alleged targets were:

1 Antonov-12 military cargo aircraft
2 Antonov-26 military cargo aircraft.

And additionally, 3 unspecified helicopters.

This information remains unconfirmed for the time being.

Russian P800 Onyks supersonic cruise missiles are not known to be overly inaccurate, at least compared to their Kh-22/32 counterparts.

Modified S400 ballistics of course function mostly as diversionary missiles to drain Ukrainian interceptors, but P800 Onyks supersonic cruises are high-cost, and usually high-quality missiles.

Something to keep an eye on.

Ukraine and its partners will not be happy with the Polish prime minister who today publicly disclosed Ukrainian losses.

"The new Russian strategy and, above all, new technical capabilities, and thus and thus jet drones, also mean much greater losses on the Ukrainian side.
Our partners from Ukraine informed me that recently, monthly, this is 27,000 killed and wounded, and these are, of course, unfortunately, records in the saddest sense of the word in this war."

*Remember ANY official sources we take with a grain of salt, though, self confirmation carries a lot more weight.