Holy SHIT??? They actually just revealed the real losses

27,000 killed and wounded in a month is horrendous

If we go from June 2023 when the Ukrainian counteroffensive begun alongside the war of attrition, 27k killed and wounded per month works out to about 1.026 million losses.

^ furthermore, in the last week's Head of the office of the president and former head of GUR Mr Budanov started Ukraine needs 30,000 'recruits' a month to sustain the current figures..

Lining all of this up, gives more weight to the claim.

Didn't Ukraine previously say that Russian losses were 10x Ukrainian losses? That means 270k Russians were killed or wounded this month. That seems to confirm the reports of 5 million+ Russian casualties.

Note: I am poking fun at the absurdity of Uktanian propaganda here.

By Ukraine’s own logic now, (claims that Russia loses 10x what Ukraine does) Russia loses 270,000 per month.

That’s not even a joke.

This now means that according to Ukraine, Russia has lost about 7% of its entire population, or 9.72 MILLION (only since attrition began in mid 2023)

Today, there was another exchange of dead bodies between Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine was given 252 of dead AFU back, whilst Russia were given 23 dead RuAF back.

The lack of movement in square kilometres overall on the front likely contributes to the decreasing ratio. Net territory gained has been close to 0 in some months.

Any system that promotes a huge privatised military-industrial complex that allows horrendous wars like this is a failed system.

Capitalism served its purpose of supporting the industrial revolution and lifting millions out of poverty, but the contradictions have grown far too great. Whether it be socialism or whatever else comes next, there has to be a system that comes after capitalism.

The hypocrisy of the neoliberal west in endorsing zionism whilst condemning Russian imperialist aggression has only massively exaggerated these inherent contradictions.

We can't vote our way out of what's happening. The social-democratic centre left has failed us as much as the populist right has.

Don't lose hope. There is an alternative to extreme corporatocratic individualism, we just have to find it. It's out there somewhere.

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: ‘Iran is in a state of total collapse. We are going to win very soon. In fact, we’re already winning — but we’re going to win.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

Odessa city is under attack from 4 Banderol jet UAV and numerous KAB glide bombs right now.

Heed all warnings please!

“With this trend, winter in Ukraine really could be catastrophic,” Tusk said in the Sejm.

If Donald Tusk is saying winter could be catastrophic, i’m extremely extremely worried. Worried is an understatement.

I’m now of the view that there will be delayed consequences of the Ukrainian counterattacks at Dvorichna, Lyman and Komar directions.

The Chernihiv incursion will only amplify this. Yikes.

2027 will be absolutely decisive. I believe (just as a prediction) that by late 2027, as the front begins to approach breaking point, the tragic reality will finally sink in.

Orikhiv direction, Zaporizhzhya oblast.

Russian forces consolidated on the doorstep of Novopavlivka, on the western flank, and are launching deep assault operations toward Zarichne and Yurkivka.

Meanwhile, Russian infiltrations through to Chervona Kryntsya continue, with no sign of Ukraine being able to clear these infiltrators. Assault groups could be soon following.

Shelling has also shifted toward the city centre of Orikhiv, indicating that Ukrainian frontal defences are faultering.

The screws on Orikhiv have tightened significantly. The situation is now critical.

Today, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made a very interesting and rather surprising claim about Ukrainian casualties. In this post, I will analyse this statement and apply some related statistics to get a clearer picture on the current manpower situation within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

According to Tusk, due to new Russian tactics and improved technical capabilities, Ukraine's casualties have increased to around 27,000 killed and wounded per month. He says that this information came from Poland's "partners from Ukraine".

Is this claim true? Well, you may remember that Budanov stated in August that Ukraine would need to mobilise 30,000 soldiers per month in order to maintain the current strength of it's armed forces. This gives a lot of credibility to Tusk's claim of 27,000 Ukrainian casualties per month. Additionally, with Poland being an ally of Ukraine (regardless of what people say about their cultural/historical tensions), Tusk has no incentive to lie about such a high number that directly contradicts the ludicrous claims made by Zelensky.

While we don't know the monthly casualty rate before August, if we were to assume that it has been 27,000 per month on average for the entirety of the war, it would give us a figure of about 1.46 million.

Do I think that 1.46 million is the true casualty count for Ukraine? No. I think it's less, and that Ukrainian casualties have increased since the failed 2023 summer counteroffensive and the rapid increase in glide-bomb and drone usage by Russia.

However, for the longest time, I have estimated that Ukraine and Russia's casualties are MUCH closer to 1:1 than either side wants to admit, probably with Ukraine having slightly more than Russia due to Russia's superior firepower capabilities and capacity. Casualties for both sides have increased significantly since the beginning of the attritional phase of the war in late-2022, and will likely continue to increase this year and into 2027. My personal estimates (which of course, are largely baseless and just educated guesses from my thousands of hours of covering this war) would put Russian and Ukrainian casualties each at around 700,000, or around half of this 1.46 million figure.

However, it's important to mention the replacement rates Russia and Ukraine both have. According to NATO estimates (so, the bare minimum number, as they have an incentive to understate this), Russia recruits - via financial incentives - anywhere between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers per month. This was also repeatedly backed up by Syrskyi's own claims about the total number of Russian personnel within Ukraine, as this number he gave increased each time he made a statement about it.

According to my information from sources within Ukraine who analysed the recent mobilisation activity though local tracking services, Ukraine forcibly mobilises a little less than 1,000 soldiers per day - a rate that has increased substantially since July due to a new campaign against military-aged men in Kyiv, western Ukraine, and some smaller towns. When taking into account the small number of volunteers who still sign up to join the AFU, that figure would probably reach around 1,000 per day, or 30,000 per month.

So, in theory, both sides are *likely* able to maintain their current army sizes, right? Well, no. At least not for Ukraine. There's always all this talk about Ukrainian manpower shortages. Why is this?

(Post continues below) ⬇️

(...)

Well, the vast majority of Ukraine's manpower replacements come from forcibly mobilised men, and most of those are from men kidnapped off the streets by the TCC. The training camps they are sent to are often of very poor quality compared to ones for volunteer soldiers, and most of the time they do not receive the necessary amount of training time before being sent to the frontline. Some of these soldiers serve as "meat" for the notorious assault units or territorial defence brigades (e.g. the 108th TDF Brigade, 425th Assault Brigade "Skala"). While Ukraine has improved on this major issue (e.g. the infamous 47th and 110th Mechanised Brigades are no longer seeing massive destruction of their combat capabilities, and Skala has been broken up and reformed), the lack of training remains a major issue for their ability to fight effectively.

Additionally, prior to August, Ukraine *wasn't* achieving a replacement rate for their military, at least according to Tusk's 27,000 figure. This has only changed due to a new change in policy allowing for massively increased mobilisation in Kyiv and western Ukraine, which, especially Kyiv, served as a form of "safe haven" for young military-aged men, to an extent.

Furthermore, this 30,000 soldier per month mobilisation rate I provided is only based on recorded mobilisation incidents. It does not take into account men who escaped training centres or went AWOL upon reaching the frontline. I assume that Tusk's 27,000 number also does not include soldiers who went AWOL, as they are generally not considered "casualties" by the Ukrainian government. Therefore, when taking this into account, it becomes clear that, if Tusk's claim is correct, Ukraine likely isn't achieving a replacement rate on their army, with its size actively decreasing. This, in my opinion, is the single more important factor contributing to the manpower issues within the Ukrainian military that we so often hear about.

Phenomenal analysis from my friend AMK.

Novopavlivka direction, Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian forces are continuing counterattacks on a more limited scale, clearing more of the Russian bridgehead across the Vovcha river and approaching Dachne.

They were also able to reenter Donetsk oblast toward Horikhove and Kotlyarivka.

Up to 15 Banderol jet-powered strike UAVs to Odesa port.

Please heed all warnings!

Explosions in Mayaky, Odesa Oblast.

KAB glide-bombs are striking the bridge connecting Odesa Oblast with Moldova. 10+ Banderol cruise missiles and 2 more KABs are approaching the bridge.

Continued explosions in Mayaky, Odesa Oblast.

KAB glide-bombs and Banderol cruise missiles are impacting the bridge.

Large-scale Russian attack on the Mayaky Bridge in Odesa Oblast.

Approximately 15 S8000 Banderol cruise missiles and 5 KAB glide-bombs targeted the bridge. I was only able to confirm one Banderol interception over northern Odesa city, but there may have been more.

The Mayaky Bridge is one of two land bridges connecting southern Odesa Oblast with the rest of Ukraine, although it connects a route that goes partially through Moldova.