Ukrainian air defence is faltering catastrophically right now.

Velyka Novosilka direction, South Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian forces, after getting bogged down in continuous counteroffensive operations around Komar, have begun advancing again.

According to pro-Russian source Anatoliy Radov, the Ukrainians are attempting tocross the Mokri Yaly river into Komar, and have advanced into Fedorivka and Vesele on the western bank of the river. These advances are likely occuring through moderate-heavy losses.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks from Shevchenko toward Burlatske continue, as the Ukrainian aim seems to shift now to crossing the river and pushing eastward (noting that the actual strategic gain here Vs attritional cost is very questionable)

Sumy city direction, Sumy oblast.

Seemingly opportunistic Ukrainian counterattacks in the Sumy direction have spread westward, with Ukrainian forces reentering the town of Kindrativka and pushing toward the rear of Andriivka.

This comes days after Russian infiltrators were expelled from the forested area around Pysarivka and Korchakivka.

Yesterday's massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine killed at least 25 civilians and injured over 118 others.

20 people, including 5 children, were killed in the direct hit to a residential apartment building in the city of Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast. 55 others were injured.

In Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, 2 people were killed and 47 others injured.

In Oleksandriya, Kirovohrad Oblast, 2 people were killed and 3 others injured.

In Kyiv, 1 person was killed and 13 others were injured.

Velykyy Burluk direction, Kharkiv oblast, an update:

The Prykolotne pocket continues to slowly get sliced up by Russian infiltrators. Most recently, Russian forces were able to push southeast from Mala Vovcha, consolidating in Khrypuny and entering the village of Krasnyy Yar.

Effectively, there are now 3 sub-pockets forming within the main northeastern Kharkiv pocket. Russian forces, due to Ukrainian reinforcements on the main flanks, are attempting to break it up into smaller 'chunks' and force the AFU to withdraw.

Bereza direction, Sumy oblast.

Ukrainian forces fully recaptured the village of Bachivsk following a localised counterattack in the area.

9/10/26

The area of Obolon, Kyiv city is currently completely without water and electricity following Russian jet UAV strikes.

Explosions in Mykolaiv city from Russian jet-UAV strikes.

Approximately 5 hours ago, earlier today, explosions occured in Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhya oblast due to Ukrainian UAV strikes. Anti-air fire against the UAV is visible in the video.

Distant smoke can be seen from an oil refinery in Komi Republic (far northern Urals), following Ukrainian long range UAV strikes. This particular refinery processes about 4.2 million tonnes of crude oil per year.

Forward Ukrainian assault groups and DRGs are now less than 7 km from the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.

Prior to these counterattacks, the frontline was over 21 km from the town.

There’s also some additional updates from Kostyantinivka direction and Dnipropetrovsk oblast to come.

I’m honestly not sure what to make of all this. The AFU looks stronger than ever, something that shouldn’t be remotely possible given attrition.

This war as a whole is completely uncharted territory. AMK, WillyOAM, I, and others, are the first to actually speculate on how a drone-saturated war of attrition works.

I’m beginning to think it is impossible to tell how this war will end. What is happening cannot be explained by normal attritional theory. All possibilities are on the table.

Threat of 9M720 Iskander-M SRBM launches from Bryansk.

It is far too early to tell, so it’s important to not overreact, but this could be the beginning of a rolling Ludendorff-style Ukrainian counteroffensive across the entire front. Such an offensive would likely last months on end and be a slow grind using already established infiltration tactics rather than a reintroduction of maneuver warfare.

The rationale for this would be a perceived weak moment of Russia before a potential 2nd partial mobilisation.

It is unlikely this is the case, as massive strategic gambles almost never pay off, (see Kursk) and the AFU command has learned and adapted very well in the past year or so.

Ballistic threat from Kursk oblast. Likely S-300/400 surface-to-air air defence missiles.

Nil threat.

The situation for Russia in the Kramatorsk direction has deteriorated significantly in the last week. A lot of important areas on the tactical heights east of the city have been lost.

Kramatorsk direction, Donetsk oblast.

Russian forces are collapsing in the area. Ukrainian forces made a 7km breakthrough to Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Minkivka.

Russia is now likely suffering some manpower shortages, and MUST mobilise soon to avoid even bigger territorial setbacks. The AFU have adapted their tactics to a point where they now hold a decisive tactical advantage on many areas of the front.

I believe this current time is very comparable to September-November of 2022. However, i'd like to note that the strategic balance of attrition is unchanged. Territory does not decide the winner or loser of a war of attrition.

Russian S8000 Banderol jet-powered strike UAVs are attacking Dnipro city currently.