Geran-4/5 jet-powered strike UAVs to Irpin, Kyiv city.

Tornado-S SRBM launches to Ochakiv, Mykolaiv oblast.

I actually plan to have a podcast-format conversation with AMK on the matter of attrition specifically, honing in on the recent frontline developments.

I’ll let you know when i plan to record it and upload it on my youtube channel - subscribe if you haven’t yet.

https://youtube.com/@hudsonwarmap?si=xLv168y0Td0tKKEr

I am sincerely sorry for how much my posts have dropped off in the last 2 weeks -

Without doxxing myself, I’m in the aviation industry, and i have combinations of theory, exams and flight training to do. This has to take priority for me.

On the note of attrition - a negative for Ukraine:

Russian glide bomb launches seem to be surging toward 300 per day now. This is an absolutely devastating amount of attrition now being inflicted, and the Ukrainian counterattacking momentum isn’t helping with this. It gives Russia plenty of glide bomb targets.

Hence one of the reasons you can be losing territory while winning an attritional war.

A good way of looking at it is that although Russia is being attritted more than ever, leading to Ukrainian advances, so is Ukraine.

The reason more devastating attrition than ever on the AFU isn’t collapsing the front is because of the masking effect of drones. It allows the AFU to hold out longer, but will cause an eventual collapse to be significantly more sudden, irreversible, dramatic, and catastrophic.

Therefore, the overall balance doesn’t change.

About 2 hours ago, Russia launched 6 Iskander-M/S-300/S-400 SRBMs at Kyiv city.

These ballistics had no warning and were not detected until they were launched. Presumably, a failure of US intelligence is to blame.

Claims circulating that Dobropillya has been captured by Russian forces are false. There will likely be a large information campaign by Russia in the coming days and weeks to exaggerate their progress in the city, and we may even see the Russian Ministry of Defence claim the capture of the city soon.

Currently, there is only a grey-zone in the southern suburbs, where Russian forces are attempting to gain a foothold, and a larger infiltration zone in the east and northeast, where sporadic Russian infiltrations continue to be detected.

I advise you all to be very cautious when viewing information about this sector, as there is a lot of disinformation coming out from both sides. Deepstate is obviously not showing the true situation either, and claims the nearest Russian-controlled territory is still 5.3 km away.

If flag raising videos come soon, please remember that a geolocation of a soldier somewhere does not prove control, let alone consolidation, over that area, but just that a soldier was present there at a given time (assuming its not AI-generated). Russian soldiers have been present in Dobropillya city in small numbers since the beginning of July. Russia's tactic is to send in small infiltration groups of 2s and 3s, resupply them with drones, and have them hop between positions to avoid being detected by Ukrainian drones and soldiers, before sending in reinforcments to accumulate and attack the city from within. The same tactic was used in Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.

As of now, I estimate that there are no more than 2-dozen Russian soldiers present in the city, mostly in the southern streets. A few hundred Ukrainian soldiers are likely also present within the city.

Druzhkivka direction, Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian forces conducted a localised clearing operation and counterattack, fully clearing Mykolaypillya of Russian infiltrators and recapturing the village of Rozkishne (13/10/2026). The AFU were also able to reenter the village of Dovha Balka in the process.

Slightly northeast, Russian forces were able to consolidate on the eastern bank of the Khrushchov pond, advancing toward Osykove.

According to AMK Mapping, the pace of Russian progress in the Dobropillya direction is beginning to accelerate again. He reports that Russian forces took Matyasheve and have entered the town Hulive and Novohryshyne.

I have been unable to verify these advances myself at this stage, but it seems this is one of the areas on the front where Russia still mains the tactical-level momentum.

A Russian Tupolev 22M3 strategic bomber has departed Chelyabinsk airbase and is transiting to Dyagilevo airbase as part of preparations for an upcoming combined missile strike toward the end of the month.

Other Tupolev 95MS strategic bomber movements have been observed in addition, including reequipping and going for maintenance.

At approximately 1930Z time of the 13th October, Russia launched the following ballistics at Kyiv city:

4 RM48U modified S400 SRBMs

2 9M720 Iskander-M SRBMs

2 interceptions were confirmed, with 4 missiles impacting.

One of the targets was the Tec-4 powerplant in Darnystkyy district.

During last night's large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine, at least six different major energy facilities were struck with ballistic and cruise missiles.

These include:

- The CHP-6 Combined Heat and Power Plant in northeastern Kyiv.

- The CHP-5 Combined Heat and Power Plant in southern Kyiv.

- The CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plant in eastern Kyiv.

- The Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in Ukrainka, Kyiv Oblast.

- The TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant in Pisochyn, Kharkiv Oblast.

- The Zmiivska Thermal Power Plant in Slobozhanske, Kharkiv Oblast.

And so what Donald Tusk describes as a “catastrophic winter” begins…

A machine-gun attack from an Israeli helicopter on a residential building in the western suburbs of Gaza City killed a child, and injured several other people.

The genocide is NOT over. Keep protesting, keep pushing your government to sanction Israel.

Serhii Sternenko, who is an Adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, has accused the Trump administration of likely instructing SpaceX to cut off Starlink access to Ukraine.

He claims that overnight, drones flying at speed exceeding 160 km/h, lost their connection, disrupting several "important missions", but that ordinary satellite communication terminals are still working.

Uh oh.

I have received reports that AFU drone operators are experiencing issues with FPV and mid-range strike usage due to the throttling of Starlink.

This is especially concerning to me. Remember how Russia folded in Dnipropetrovsk when Starlink was cut?

Due to the AFU's reliance on drones to replace manpower shortages, if Starlink was cut, which is still unlikely at this stage, the AFU would experience very dangerous issues with FPV and mid-range drone operation.

Sectors of the front that are held almost entirely by drones would begin to cascade quite quickly, as Russian infiltrators penetrate extremely deeply and go undetected. Things would deteriorate much faster than they did for Russia in Dnipropetrovsk.

A nervous wait for the AFU begins...

This coincides with significant fog in the Donbas.

Expect some extremely deep infiltrations by the Russians.

Ukrainian presidential advisor on the development of defence technologies Serhii "Flash" indicates that the Starlink disruptions are now also affecting interceptor drone activities, which are used to shoot down Russian Geran-2 drones and Geran-4/5 jet-drones.