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‘Megadrought’ in American West May Trigger First-Ever Water Shortage Declaration

The American West has been suffering from what’s sometimes referred to as a “megadrought,” centered around the Colorado River, for years. And this week, things are accelerating, on both a state and federal level, as government officials (and farmers) prepare for the worst.

Arizona and Nevada would automatically be subject to significant cuts in water access

In response, the Biden administration announced the formation of an Interagency Working Group, chaired by both the Departments of Agriculture and Interior, to determine how to cope with the worsening drought. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom declared a drought emergency in two counties in the northern parts of the state. This comes with a huge reduction in the amount of available water for agriculture in the region—primarily grapes in wine country.

#water

https://modernfarmer.com/2021/04/megadrought-in-american-west-may-trigger-first-ever-water-shortage-declaration/
Unseasonal snowfall covers mountains in Gangwon Province

SEOUL, April 30 (Yonhap) -- Unseasonal snowfall blanketed mountainous areas of Gangwon Province, east of Seoul, on Friday, the last day of April usually known in South Korea as a season of early summer-like warm weather.

#GrandSolarMinimum

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210430004700315
Martin Armstrong again writing today about #GlobalCooling / #GrandSolarMinimum:

Our model has projected we are entering another “grand-minimum,” which will overtake the sun beginning in 2020 and will last lasting through the 2050s, resulting in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production, and less ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth. This all means we are facing a global cooling period in the planet that may span 31 to 43 years. The last grand-minimum event produced the mini-Ice Age in the mid-17th century. Known as the Maunder Minimum, it occurred between 1645 and 1715, during a longer span of time when parts of the world became so cold that the period was called the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850.

If Gates blocks the sun as he has been suggesting off-camera, we are looking at not just the reduction of population by 70%, but all life.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/are-we-headed-into-another-ice-age/
Germany: April brought frost and snow - to the suffering of the fruit growers.

Setbacks are normal, in spring as in life, snow and cold are more the rule than the exception. But spring 2021 has exaggerated its predilection for frosty falls, polar air flooded the pandemic-weary continent at regular intervals: lockdown and "flockdown" are constant companions. And for the first time in decades, April will be much too cold on average . The last days of the month won't change that either.

The year 2021 produced April as it used to be known: capricious and uncontrolled. It can feel like a warm June and a short time later like a grim February. Typical April weather. The current average temperature is 5.1 degrees, which means the spring month is almost four degrees colder compared to the new reference period from 1991 to 2020. Even in relation to the mean for the years 1961 to 1990, the temperature is 2.3 degrees Celsius lower. The last time there was such a negative monthly deviation was almost ten years ago. If the end of the month were now, we would have the coldest April since 1973 behind us.

The cold air flooded large parts of Europe as far as the southern tip of Italy and Crete. At the same time, further east in parts of Russia it was clearly too warm for the time of year. The ingress of cold air was caused by a special weather constellation. A strong high south of Iceland contrasted with a strong low over Scandinavia. While the high rotates clockwise, the air masses in the low move in the opposite direction. As a result, together they conducted arctic air far south in an intense north-westerly current.

https://www.spektrum.de/news/kalter-april-schadete-der-obstbluete/1863571
Records falling everywhere. More from Germany:

* Coldest April in 104 years (since 1917)
* Most snowy April in 35 years

https://notrickszone.com/2021/04/18/so-far-germany-seeing-coldest-april-in-104-years-second-coldest-since-1881-snowiest-since-1986/
#Italy: "After visiting all the main fruit-growing areas in Italy, I can say that in 2021 there will be even fewer kiwis in Italy than in 2020," said Pietro Cimatti, fruit-growing expert.

The situation in Emilia-Romagna is slightly better than last year, when the frost had impacted very heavily. This year the damage was patchy. "However, in other growing areas, such as Veneto and Piedmont, the quantities have more than halved. In some areas the temperature has dropped to 7-8°C below zero, so there is little left to save."

https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9316872/frost-damage-caused-even-fewer-kiwis-in-italy-than-in-2020/
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#Taiwan: (remember they were cutting water allocations to keep semiconductor factories running)

Drought reduces Taiwan lychee production to 10% in worst case — 90% crop failure!

Prolonged drought in Taiwan has affected the harvest in various areas. In Qishan, Dashu and other areas in Kaohsiung, Yuhebao lychees have trouble fruiting due to continuous drought. Growers lament that the production may only be a little over 10% in the worst case.

https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9316934/drought-reduces-taiwan-lychee-production-to-10-in-worst-case/
People in southern Madagascar have been reduced to eating wild leaves and locusts to stave off starvation after consecutive drought and sandstorms ruined harvests, leaving hundreds of thousands on the brink of famine, according to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).

Speaking by videolink from Madagascar’s capital, Antananarivo, Daoudi told a UN briefing in Geneva he had visited villages where “people have had to resort to desperate survival measures, such as eating locusts, raw red cactus fruits or wild leaves”.

“Famine looms in southern Madagascar as communities witness an almost total disappearance of food sources which has created a full-blown nutrition emergency,” Daoudi said.

https://aje.io/ddmkg
Analyst: U.S. on verge of running out of soybeans by mid-July

"The average American celebrates Independence Day on July 4 with gatherings of family and friends, barbecues, parades, concerts and fireworks. However, farmers, ranchers and those that produce agricultural products such as soy oil and meal, as well ag speculators, will witness a different kind of fireworks in mid-July because the United States may literally run out of soybeans for domestic use.

“Two years ago, projected U.S carryout stocks were estimated to be 900 million bushels. A year ago, ending supplies were pegged at 523 million bushels. Now, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast stocks of U.S. soybeans at 190 million bushels,” I wrote. “My work suggests ending stocks to be under 100 million. And the historic decline with ending U.S. soybean stocks has many whispering, ‘Are we going to run out?’”

In the final paragraphs of the same column, I wrote: “It has been shocking the USDA lowered soybean stocks so dramatically as it did over the past few months. Such data sets the stage for higher and just maybe unprecedented soybean prices, depending on Chinese buying habits and the weather issues plaguing several of the world’s major grain producers.

[...]

Imagine, if you will, a stiff price rationing rally underway for soybeans — or corn — when suddenly weather issues surface in the heart of the growing season.

How high could prices possibly spike on the upside in light of the potential for the United States to “run outta” soybeans in mid-July? Just how high would soybean prices have to rally to kill demand?

Moving forward, soybean prices are poised to embark on a price rationing rally to prevent a scenario where soybean crushers simply cannot find soybeans.

https://www.agrinews-pubs.com/opinion/columnists/2021/04/24/commodity-insight-us-on-verge-of-running-out-of-soybeans/
And continuing from previous post — we ARE having weather issues in US. So running out of soybeans for domestic use is not just possible, but increasingly probably.

Look for US to start importing beans — this is a next huge red flag.

We may see some fireworks in mid-July ... and not the patriotic ones.

(Also interesting this aligns with the timeline we've been seeing around next set of lockdowns...)
Look for US to start importing soybeans — this is next huge red flag.
CONFIRMED — US *is* importing soybeans — just getting reported.

Perdue shipping one cargo of Brazil soybeans into the U.S.– Cargonave data

U.S.-based meat processor Perdue is shipping one cargo of 31,450 tonnes of Brazilian soybeans into the United States, according to line-up data from shipping agency Cargonave, as stocks dwindle in the destination market.

Brazil
, the world's largest soy producer and exporter, very seldom sells to the United States. China is the main buyer of its soy."

Again — this is a red flag for US (TOP exporter of soybeans) domestic supplies being so short that companies are looking to source elsewhere.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/perdue-shipping-one-cargo-of-brazil-soybeans-into-the-u.s.-cargonave-data-2021-04-27
Need a new entrepreneurial venture? Rent chickens.

For €140 (£121) Spalik, 19, will provide four birds plus a coop, a fence, feed and care instructions. Chicken renters must have an outdoor space of 25m square of grass. The minimum rental period is two weeks. Customers include retirement homes and people who want to try out keeping chickens before deciding whether to buy.

“The hens have been used as therapy animals in retirement homes,” Spalik said. “People with dementia respond well to them.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cooped-up-germans-are-turning-to-rental-chickens-kg8knqrt5
Limit up lumber, corn, soy oil today.
Cascading supply chain failures - affecting agriculture:

“It's finding the raw materials,” says Nic Beck, of Nebraska-based Clarks Ag Supply that produces seed tenders. “That's really what the issue comes down to. It's the steel, the tube steel, especially, for our augers that go into our seed tenders on our machines. It's just really hard to come by.”

He says it’s not just trouble in sourcing supplies at a reasonable price that’s turned into an issue. He says supply is short no matter where you try to source it.

“The price of tube steel in one week went up 150% for 10-gauge tubes of steel,” says Beck. “And then it just couldn't be found. There's nothing around for it.”

Beck says the raw materials are being pinched by transportation issues, but it’s also turned into a shortage of sourcing the correct parts to run the machines.

“The company that cuts out the holes on a part, they had just a small $10 part break and all a sudden it shut down a million-dollar machine for two weeks and put a backlog on everything," he adds.

#SupplyChain

https://www.agweb.com/news/business/taxes-and-finance/supplies-slip-demand-outpaces-supply-everything-seed-tenders
As the 2021 planting season is officially underway, many farm inputs and supplies are seeing a shortage. An ag chemistry shortage is impacting those trying to control weeds, but the pinch on products covers much more than crop inputs today.

“There's been a couple key things that have just really caused the supply chain to get backed up,” says Derrik Ellingson, chief strategic officer for Ellingson Companies in Fargo, N.D.

Ellingson Companies installs drainage tile and serves a number of industries, including agriculture. The company, which has been in business since 1970, says it focuses on waters solutions for its customers, and this year, a shortage of plastic supplies means installing drainage is coming at an added cost.

“There's definitely a shortage,” says Ellingson. “And obviously, when there's high demand, these guys are going to capitalize, which is driving the price up. And there is a shortage.”

He says anything that is a plastic-based product is in short supply.

“I don't think anyone could have ever expected the demand for plastic to drive through the roof,” he explains. “The car industry, boats, SUVs, side by sides, ATVs, home projects, all these decks people are putting in that’s plastic decking. Everybody is spending money taking care of these things. So, it's just completely compounded into a problem that we are faced with here today."

From demand, to now production problems at plants, it’s a problem that first popped up last summer.

“Those hurricanes [last summer] took many of the petrochemical facilities offline for a period of time,” says Jennifer Van Dinter, head of integrated analytics, S&P Global Platts.“That's kind of what started this whole domino effect. And since then, there were more outages in December that were not necessarily planned events for maintenance. And then we had the deep freeze that hit Houston, New Orleans, and all of the areas in between that took so many of those plastics plants, as well as refineries, offline for several weeks in many cases.”

As a result, from the raw goods to the end product, plastics prices are racing higher.

https://www.agweb.com/news/business/taxes-and-finance/bale-wrap-drainage-tile-pinch-plastics-supplies-spurring-nationwide
Brazil Safrinha crop continues to be marked down.
Russian COVID-19 Vaccine in the Form of Yogurt?

Russian scientists are developing a vaccine against the new coronavirus, which can be introduced into the body in the form of yogurt. The agency quoted a statement from Vladimir Chekhonin, vice president of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The work on the creation of the vaccine is carried out by the Institute of Experimental Medicine in St. Petersburg. It refers to the type of mucosal vaccine that is given into the body by mouth in the form of an aerosol or drops.

As a rule, the antigens of such preparations are enclosed in microcapsules, which protects them from digestive enzymes. "The target for cloning is a gene encoding the S-protein of the coronavirus. As a result, the gene is introduced to the area that codes probiotic bacteria pili, creating a bacterium with an immunogenic viral protein on its surface. Such a vaccine can be administered in the form of a product such as yogurt. Preclinical trials of this vaccine are currently underway" said Chekhonin.

June 2, 2020
https://m.novinite.com/articles/204740/Russian+COVID-19+Vaccine+in+the+Form+of+Yogurt%3F
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April 30 Arctic sea ice extent was highest in the last eight years and higher than 2006, 2004 and 1989.