The end of this month marks the two-month deadline set by #Trump to end the war.
Negotiations in #Pakistan are stalled due to high mutual demands between #Iran and #America, and there is no flexibility to reach an agreement yet.
America's naval blockade of Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz are unsustainable for either party for a long period.
Therefore, if mediators do not succeed in softening positions, it is likely that a fierce round of fighting will ensue to break the stalemate and exit the vicious cycle. In times of war, neither the outcomes nor the duration of fires, which could be more intense and widespread than the June 2025 and February 2026 rounds, can be predicted. However, what is certain is that the third round will be decisive in establishing the balance of power and building on its regional and international outcomes.
In Lebanon, too, the scene is no less complex.
The enemy acknowledges the change in facts in favor of the resistance after it returned to establish new equations that #Katz had mourned days after the end of the last war when he said: "The era of equations is over."
"Israel" also admits to restricting its army's movement in Lebanon due to #Netanyahu's submission to rules imposed by Iran on #Trump.
The ignition of the Iran front will free the enemy from America's restrictions, expanding the circle of war as it was two weeks ago today.
Awaiting the results of diplomatic activity between Iran and America through mediators in the coming hours..
Hassan Al-Durr
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Hezbollah's operational area today, according to its statements, covered almost all points of Israeli occupation forces' presence.
Suicide drones strike at the border and beyond.
Extensive evacuation helicopter activity, according to Hebrew media.
This is the drowning, and the scene is the opposite of Zamir's threat, who said no retreat.
This is the field that counts in the results, in any indirect negotiation, and is taken into account even in #Islamabad.
This is the reality that brought down the "achievements" of the #Netanyahu government after the 2024 war.
Freedom of movement is the most affected issue.
There is a changed reality, even if the war resumes one day.
In this battle, whoever retreats loses.
Even if the retreat is in the form of "lowering the ceiling," and it has become clear who lowered the ceiling of his goals twice, and the third is coming.
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While #Trump has the equipment ready to launch a retaliatory round against #Tehran, the calculations of profit and loss impose on him a "doctrine of hesitation" due to three strategic obstacles:
First, the "exit" dilemma, as he realizes that possessing the keys to war does not mean possessing guarantees to end its repercussions, especially after sinking into a 39-day spiral.
Second, the concern about the ambiguity of the Iranian response, which may exceed American expectations.
Finally, the fall of the "misinformation bet", as the erroneous Israeli reports that promoted a rapid collapse of the Iranian regime caused an intelligence trust gap, which made #Trump realize that the field reality of Iran is tougher than #Netanyahu's "propaganda".
#Washington today is capable of attacking, but it does not have the certainty of surviving the consequences!
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#Netanyahu talks daily about crossing the Litani, and even seizing strategic locations.
A Hezbollah statement demolishes the Israeli narrative of "achievement."
Clashes continue and are taking place on the outskirts of Yahmar, Zawtar El Sharqiyeh, and Debbine, with no Israeli control over them, according to the party's statement.
All this heavy firepower without achievement, and failure will mean the resounding retreat of the occupation army.
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Our soldiers are now operating deep in Lebanese territory to defend Israel's security, and this will continue until the mission is #completed.
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After reading the statement issued by the Lebanese Embassy in Washington, the text clearly links "the cessation of #Israel's strikes on the #Southern_Dahieh" with "#Hezbollah refraining from attacking Israel." This wording implies limiting de-escalation to a specific geographical area (#Beirut and its suburbs), which practically leaves the #South front outside the umbrella of this temporary arrangement, and provides the #Israeli_occupation army with political cover to continue its attempts to infiltrate and bomb south of the #Litani_River without bearing the cost of bombing the #North.
This analysis is confirmed by #Netanyahu's explicit statements that followed the announcement, in which he affirmed two things; first: that the criterion for bombing the capital is exclusively linked to "Hezbollah ceasing to attack Israeli cities and citizens," and the second and dangerous one is his explicit declaration: "We will continue to operate in #Southern_Lebanon according to the planned scheme." This is an open and direct Israeli acknowledgment of an attempt to impose a clear geographical separation equation.
The proposal was hastily designed after #Tehran's warnings and its entry into the deterrence line. #Washington is trying, through this formula, to dismantle the Iranian threat; instead of obliging Israel to a comprehensive cessation of massacres, the proposal aims to remove the pretext from Tehran and the #Resistance by neutralizing the capital Beirut, while keeping the ground front in the South ablaze to complete the Israeli military pressure.
Despite the statement's reference to "Hezbollah's approval," the constant in the Resistance's combat doctrine historically rejects any formula that separates the security of the capital from the security of the southern villages and towns. Therefore, even if this arrangement is passed as a "temporary de-escalation" to catch a breath or under diplomatic pressure, the continued bombing of the South, as #Netanyahu threatens, will inevitably mean that the fuse of explosion remains lit, and it will not be long before this fragile equation collapses at the first violent ground confrontation on the front edge.
The real challenge will begin in Tuesday and Wednesday's meetings; either the Resistance imposes amendments that include the South, or we are facing a temporary and deceptive truce that will not last long on the ground.
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The ongoing Israeli ground operations and attempts to push into vital valleys, such as #Wadi_Al-Salouqi and the vicinity of #Nabatieh, are not aimed at opening a new open confrontation; rather, they represent an attempt to seize as much territory as possible before the agreement comes into effect.
#Netanyahu seeks to formulate propaganda that convinces the Israeli public that military pressure and joint operations with #Washington are what forced #Tehran to accept the draft, in order to absorb the shock of the sudden American withdrawal and curb his army's military momentum.
In contrast, the "year 2000 complex" imposes real concerns on #Tel_Aviv about a repeat of the scene of withdrawal under fire without guaranteed security arrangements; therefore, the Hebrew media is working to link the cessation of operations in #Lebanon to the "major American guarantees" contained in the memorandum of understanding, as a political cover that protects the government from accusations of military failure, and justifies the withdrawal of five military divisions that were exhausted in the rugged terrain of the #South.
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In Iran:
Popular objection to the agreement with America because, in their opinion, it did not give Iran what it achieved in the war.
In "Israel":
Political and popular objection to the agreement between America and Iran because it poses a threat to "Israel's" security and does not achieve any strategic gains for it after a series of tactical achievements over three years.
The bombing of Dahiyeh today is an attempt by #Netanyahu to reassure his public that he is a decision-maker and will not accept equations being imposed on him.
Awaiting Iran's position:
If it responds, and in my estimation it will respond, it will send a message of strength to Trump and Netanyahu together that it is going to the agreement from a position of strength, and that "Israel's" non-compliance in Lebanon later, if the agreement is reached, it is ready to deal with it from the standpoint of being able to impose its conditions by force.
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The occupation's targeting of the southern suburb prior to the signing of the #Washington-#Tehran understanding represents an attempt to impose a preemptive deterrence equation and enshrine "freedom of fire movement," in a step that reflects a field rejection of the clause to end the war in #Lebanon and a blatant attempt by #Netanyahu to booby-trap the diplomatic path; which makes Tehran and the "unity of fronts" concerned with a disciplined response that tests the cohesion of the fronts and establishes the effectiveness of red lines, to prevent the consecration of any geographical or political separation between the fronts.
#Dahieh
#Iran
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The statement issued by the Iranian Foreign Minister represents the "most accurate legal and political framework" for the structure of the agreement; it dismantles the structure of the interim understanding and puts a final end to the attempts of the #Israeli_occupation to separate the fronts, or to isolate Lebanon under the name of "safe areas".
The decisive description that "the continuation of the occupation or any attack on #Lebanon is a breach of the memorandum" blocks the way for the heresy of the "buffer zone" that #Netanyahu tried to market; the truce is conditionally and structurally linked to a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal.
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#Trump's recent statements represent the peak of the American utilitarian approach, as he seeks to market the agreement as a profitable commercial and security deal for the American interior and Congress, while his disgruntled stance on Israeli performance reveals the lifting of political and logistical cover from #Netanyahu's expansionist ambitions in #Lebanon and #Syria.
In contrast, the joint position between #Berri and #Qalibaf, supported by the statement of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, re-establishes the conditions on the ground: there is no alternative to a full Israeli withdrawal and an end to the destruction of villages, which has put #Tel_Aviv in the predicament of the lost "separation of arenas," as its security circles admitted.
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The announcement of the establishment of a "de-confliction cell to prevent friction with the participation of #Lebanon" to secure a cessation of military operations is a political and military achievement that dismantles the narrative of a "security zone" or "freedom of movement" for the occupation. This arrangement, described by #Araghchi as "the first real test," isolates #Netanyahu's evasive maneuvers and places the Israeli military machine under the supervision of international and regional committees that impose withdrawal as a prerequisite procedural entitlement.
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The "declaration of intent" in #Washington is a "smuggling operation" that lacks constitutional and charter legitimacy and will not last. While #Netanyahu sells his audience illusions of a "security belt" to blackmail the Lebanese army, the geography of "Ali Al-Taher" refutes claims of stabilization. The attempt to impose conditions that the field failed to achieve will quickly detonate the agreement, as sovereignty is not made by individual deals.
#Lebanon.
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There are only two regions in the world whose inhabitants are prevented from leaving: North Korea and the Gaza Strip.
He added: 80% of the residents of the Gaza Strip wish to leave, but all countries in the world refuse to receive them because they do not want to help Israel.
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