Forwarded from Russia 101
I understand those who are happy with American defeat in Afghanistan. Still, everyone should remember that the US always uses geography to its advantage. To put it simply, America is far from Afghanistan. They didn't solve Afghani problems (if they wanted to) and now they fly away. So this old-new unpredictable Afghanistan is now a problem for its neighbours, Middle Asia, and Russia.
Taliban can try to expand its influence on Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan or even organize military or terrorist operations on their territory. An extremely fragile Tajikistan looks like perfect target for such actions. Also drug trafficking from Afghanistan can increase. Apart from drugs and new conflicts, Middle Asia will face a flow of refugees. Yes, thousands of people with civil war experience who have nothing to lose will (in fact, they already do) move to already unstable Middle Asian countries. In apocalyptic scenario this would cause absolute collapse of secular authoritarian regimes on post-soviet Middle Asia and jeopardize the very existence of present-day Russia.
Still, it's hard to say what Taliban will do, moreover, maybe nothing will happen at all. Russian politics in Afghanistan is balanced in many ways. The Kremlin established good relations with former government (they even recognized Crimea as Russian territory) and in recent years Russia intensified its contacts with Taliban (although, they are considered as terrorists by Russia, which is kinda funny, taking their official negotiations in Moscow). Apart from diplomatic efforts, Russia conducted several military drills with China, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, showing that potential agression of Taliban won't be left without response.
So I hope for the best and read pro-western Ukrainian media. Let's say, authors there are not happy. It seems, they don't want to be the guys from the video below.
#international #afghanistan
Taliban can try to expand its influence on Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan or even organize military or terrorist operations on their territory. An extremely fragile Tajikistan looks like perfect target for such actions. Also drug trafficking from Afghanistan can increase. Apart from drugs and new conflicts, Middle Asia will face a flow of refugees. Yes, thousands of people with civil war experience who have nothing to lose will (in fact, they already do) move to already unstable Middle Asian countries. In apocalyptic scenario this would cause absolute collapse of secular authoritarian regimes on post-soviet Middle Asia and jeopardize the very existence of present-day Russia.
Still, it's hard to say what Taliban will do, moreover, maybe nothing will happen at all. Russian politics in Afghanistan is balanced in many ways. The Kremlin established good relations with former government (they even recognized Crimea as Russian territory) and in recent years Russia intensified its contacts with Taliban (although, they are considered as terrorists by Russia, which is kinda funny, taking their official negotiations in Moscow). Apart from diplomatic efforts, Russia conducted several military drills with China, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, showing that potential agression of Taliban won't be left without response.
So I hope for the best and read pro-western Ukrainian media. Let's say, authors there are not happy. It seems, they don't want to be the guys from the video below.
#international #afghanistan
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Forwarded from Russia 101
I'm really tired of these rumors about war in Ukraine. The probability of Russians attacking first is very low. The probability that Ukrainians start offensive operation in Donbass and Russia will have to retaliate is higher.
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
Still, majority of Ukrainian politicians don't want the war, because Ukrainian economy cannot endure the conflict against Russia. It's not about obvious inability of Ukrainian troops to fight against full-scale Russian intervention.
In recent two years Ukrainian economy faced many challenges, especially in energy sector, and now every Ukrainian action in military sphere will lead to rolling blackouts without Russian gas and oil. This dependency is aggravated by spoiled relations between Belarus and Ukraine. I do not believe that in war scenario Belarus will let Russians attack Ukraine from its territory. Nevertheless, the transit of Russian oil and gas through Belarus will be stopped.
#international #Ukraine
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Forwarded from Russia 101
Speaking of nuclear deal of Iran and the West
Once upon a time Russia wanted to expand its share on European gas market. The Nord Stream 2 project was declared. Nobody was hiding that the second purpose of building this pipe was to avoid Ukrainian transit, because they often tried to steal the gas even before the conflict in 2014, and they asked for transit too much.
Due to Ukrainian crisis the US implemented sanctions against the Nord Stream 2, and the project was delayed enough to fall under the new European antitrust regulations, which made it impossible for Gazprom to export gas alone. The Russian govt put up with it and continued construction of the pipe.
Then Danish govt demanded new ecological expertise of the project, and the Americans declared a new round of sanctions against the Nord Stream 2. In 2019 Russia had to sign new gas contract with Ukraine for 5 years. But Russia once again put up with it. Everybody thought "it's humiliation, but we'll finish our precious project (it was 95% ready at the moment) and get rid of Ukrainian transit forever".
In 2021 the Ukrainian govt massed its troops near DPR/LPR. Russia did the same, got another round of sanctions, the Nord Stream 2 launch was delayed again. It was built, the test launch was made, but judicial complications prevented its work. Before 24th of February 2022 it still was under license procedure.
Every round Russia was defeated and humiliated. Every moment Europeans showed that they are independent only until the orders from Washington. We lost time and money, while the West was arming Ukraine. It was a tough lesson.
So, what's about the nuclear deal? Don't waste your time and make nukes
#international #iran
Once upon a time Russia wanted to expand its share on European gas market. The Nord Stream 2 project was declared. Nobody was hiding that the second purpose of building this pipe was to avoid Ukrainian transit, because they often tried to steal the gas even before the conflict in 2014, and they asked for transit too much.
Due to Ukrainian crisis the US implemented sanctions against the Nord Stream 2, and the project was delayed enough to fall under the new European antitrust regulations, which made it impossible for Gazprom to export gas alone. The Russian govt put up with it and continued construction of the pipe.
Then Danish govt demanded new ecological expertise of the project, and the Americans declared a new round of sanctions against the Nord Stream 2. In 2019 Russia had to sign new gas contract with Ukraine for 5 years. But Russia once again put up with it. Everybody thought "it's humiliation, but we'll finish our precious project (it was 95% ready at the moment) and get rid of Ukrainian transit forever".
In 2021 the Ukrainian govt massed its troops near DPR/LPR. Russia did the same, got another round of sanctions, the Nord Stream 2 launch was delayed again. It was built, the test launch was made, but judicial complications prevented its work. Before 24th of February 2022 it still was under license procedure.
Every round Russia was defeated and humiliated. Every moment Europeans showed that they are independent only until the orders from Washington. We lost time and money, while the West was arming Ukraine. It was a tough lesson.
#international #iran
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