⚡️Two Majors #Overview #Summary for the morning of September 20, 2026

▪️Key Event: The main domestic event of the week is the State Duma elections, taking place against the backdrop of the Special Military Operation (SMO) and, for the first time, including the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions. The Central Election Commission has established special procedures for conducting elections under martial law, and some of these provisions also apply to Crimea, Sevastopol, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov regions, and Krasnodar Krai. Regional commissions have the authority to determine the volume of information about polling stations and commission members that is not subject to publication. In military units, separate polling stations may be established; commissions there are formed by the unit commander at the decision of the Territorial Election Commission (TEC), and access for accredited journalists is through a request to the relevant military unit. This is due to security concerns, and the threat is not fabricated.

▪️Foreign Policy: An event occurred that could have a more direct impact on the resource base of the SMO. On September 18, Trump, who has been favorably covered by our media, signed a new sanctions law called the "Hellish Sanctions" against Russia. The sanctions target Russian officials, banks, and ships of the so-called "shadow fleet." However, the most important aspect is that the U.S. President has been granted authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, although the law includes exceptions and leaves room for maneuver for the White House. Therefore, it is incorrect to say that India, China, or anyone else has already been hit with a 100% tariff. However, this law will force buyers of Russian energy resources to choose between trading with Russia and risking reduced access to the U.S. market. For us, this is a matter of export revenue, which is growing against the backdrop of a new crisis in the Middle East.

▪️Military Operations: The Russian Armed Forces are increasingly trying to target not individual objects, but the entire supply chain of the enemy: production, energy, metallurgy, railways, locomotives, warehouses, ports, border crossings, and transportation hubs. Over the past week, strikes continued in the Odessa direction, targeting port infrastructure, logistics centers, industrial enterprises, and railway facilities.

▪️Enemy Actions: The enemy is targeting Russian oil refining and trying to shift the war into the economic sphere of Russia. And the results cannot be denied; we are reading news about a strike today on the MNPPZ. After the attacks, the Syzran and Saratov oil refineries were damaged. It is reported that the main primary processing unit at the Syzran refinery, which accounts for about 71% of the plant's capacity, was damaged; industry sources estimate that repairs will take at least a month, while the second unit was already under repair after a previous attack. The Saratov oil refinery also reportedly stopped processing after a series of attacks. At the same time, the enemy claimed to have struck the Yaroslavl oil refinery. The war has now definitively become a two-front war, and the number of targets hit in Ukraine means nothing without simultaneously increasing the object's air defense, cheap interceptors, and protection of our own industry.

▪️Frontline Situation: On the front lines, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance. In the Krasnolimansk direction, the enemy continues to counterattack, and part of the territory remains a gray zone. Supply to the forward groups is difficult, and the enemy is able to bring in reserves and return to lost positions. That is why the latest reports about control over populated areas should not be evaluated based on the flag on the building, but on the stability of supply, the work of neighboring settlements, and the ability to hold the line after a counterattack. In the Orekhovsk direction, our forces are also putting pressure, advancing north of Orekhov, creating a "layered pie." At the same time, Ukrainian defenses are saturated with UAVs, equipped positions, and pre-prepared logistics.

▪️Europe's Preparations: Meanwhile, Europe is preparing for war by developing infrastructure. This week, Poland began physically strengthening border crossings with Ukraine. Engineering units are setting up defensive positions near Dorohusk, Medyka, and Korczowa, installing gabion and anti-shrapnel structures, and creating observation and security posts. The formal task is to protect border guards and ensure the operation of the crossings after attacks near Polish territory. Romania is conducting the Burebista 26 exercises throughout the country from September 14 to 25, involving management structures and Air Force units with the support of ground, naval, and special operations forces. They are practicing air operations, inter-service interaction, the deployment of equipment along land routes, and low-altitude flights. In other words, they are training not just a single squadron, but the operation of the state as a space for conducting a large-scale military operation. In the Baltic states, it is even more evident: the European Investment Bank is allocating €100 million to modernize the Klaipeda port. The total cost of the program is about €201 million, and part of the civilian cruise terminal is being adapted to NATO requirements to service allied warships, with completion scheduled for the end of 2027.

And this fits into the broader European picture: German automotive companies are gradually adapting to defense orders, air defense and anti-drone systems are becoming a separate industrial race, and countries on the eastern flank are strengthening borders and transportation hubs. Officially, all of this is called "deterrence and increased resilience." In reality, Europe is systematically reducing the time it will take to transition from a peaceful infrastructure to a wartime infrastructure. They are preparing materially for the possibility of war.

✨Therefore, the past week is interesting precisely because of the coincidence of these processes. In Russia, a new parliament is being elected, and at the same time, special rules for conducting elections under wartime conditions are being expanded. At the same time, the United States, after a period of diplomatic rhetoric, is gaining a new powerful sanctions tool. Russia and Ukraine are increasingly striking at each other's economic rear. Europe is turning ports, borders, civilian enterprises, and transportation into elements of a defense system. In other words, the war is being determined less and less by where an LBS (reconnaissance by fire) took place today. The ability to continue the war is now determined far beyond that.

✨⭐️The confrontation is increasingly turning into a struggle of systems for endurance. Our strikes increase the cost of Ukrainian logistics and production, while Ukrainian strikes increase the cost of operating Russian oil refining and the deep rear. The United States is increasing financial pressure, and Europe is investing in military mobility and infrastructure.

And against this backdrop, it is especially dangerous to substitute reality with a convenient report. In a long war, a mistake can still be corrected. If you believe your own beautiful reports, correcting them will require blood and time.

This summary was prepared by: ⚡️Two Majors