📝The Rich Also Cry📝
Again on the cost of repelling Iranian attacks by Gulf states

News in the style of "Gulf states have air defense missiles left for 2-3 days" — another reason to assess their spending on repelling Iranian attacks. The problem here is that we have limited input data — only official figures on the number of intercepted missiles and drones for Bahrain, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait.

Since all estimates are approximate, for objectivity we'll take them purely at the "lower bound." Let's assume that to intercept "ballistic" missiles, countries used PAC-3 missiles from their Patriot systems. We'll take the minimum consumption — 2 missiles per 1 target.

With drones it's more complicated: short and medium-range air defense systems are almost absent there (we're not counting the remaining Emirati "Pantsirs" that weren't transferred to Libya), and footage of anti-aircraft gun operations is absent. Therefore, we'll assume that AIM-9 and MICA missiles from fighter jets were used. We'll take the minimum consumption — 1 missile per 1 target.

❗️With these parameters, it turns out that over just over three days of conflict, the Gulf states (excluding Saudi Arabia) spent almost $10 billion on air defense/anti-missile systems alone.

And this is the lower bound based on official data: if they spent 4+ missiles instead of 2 to counter Iranian ballistic missiles (which is more realistic), fired "Patriots" at drones, or used THAAD anti-missile systems costing $20 million each, the sum increases many times over.

So even for wealthy Persian Gulf states, countering Iranian strikes is an expensive affair. Especially considering they bear the costs of someone else's military operation.

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#Bahrain #Iran #Qatar #Kuwait #UAE
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📝An Expensive and So Far Unvictorious War📝
On yet another Iranian success in the UAE

The more days pass since the start of the war, the more artifacts appear on satellite imagery showing that the Iranians have indeed achieved significant success in responding to American attacks.

🖍Following the loss by the Americans of a billion-dollar radar station FPS-132 in Qatar, the Iranians managed to strike the AN-TPY-2 radar from the THAAD air defense system in the UAE near Ar-Ruwais.

🚩Satellite footage began circulating only today, although the strike occurred by midday on March 1. Meanwhile, the AN-TPY-2 is the most expensive component of THAAD, which costs over $500 million.

🏳️Moreover, today's imagery also revealed several more impacts on U.S. positions in the UAE at Al Dhafra Air Base. Two hangars were struck there, and judging by fires near the bunkers, at least two air defense positions were hit.

❗️In the context of an increasingly escalating war, the Iranians have already achieved a serious success: air defenses worth billions have been depleted (this despite the total weakening of their own air defenses). The number of American deaths officially remains insignificant so far, but grows with each passing day.

And this new loss by the U.S. Armed Forces will be remembered against Trump and his cabinet, as the costs of the "blitzkrieg" are becoming increasingly felt in the American budget, which, considering possible consequences of a Strait of Hormuz blockade, will only grow.

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#Iran #Qatar #UAE #USA
🧨 @rybar_mena — on Middle Eastern chaos with love

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📝Iranian Pseudo-Patriots📝
Funded by the U.S. State Department – Part 2

The media network operating in the U.S. on Iran is one of the largest in the American segment. It mainly consists of small-scale journalists, experts, and analysts working in various journalistic outlets or think tanks supported by the State Department.

However, there are other more significant “assets” known in narrower circles, who possess authority and the needed background as "fighters against tyranny in Iran." Masih Alinejad serves as the hub where these people converge, but each of them plays their own role.

🔻Who’s who in the media network?

▪️The second most important figure after Alinejad is actress of Iranian descent Nazanin Boniadi. She is known for the TV shows “How I Met Your Mother” and “Homeland.” While her acting career might not be called highly successful, she found another path.

She has been an activist for women's rights practically her entire life. She is invited to various forums, officially on a volunteer (unpaid) basis. However, where she operates, there is information about payments, though the amounts remain unknown.

▪️Two other significant assets with strong media presence are writer Azar Nafisi, who is officially an expert at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), and Mahnaz Afkhami – former Minister for Women's Affairs in Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The first wrote the provocative book "Reading Lolita in Tehran," which quickly gained popularity in the West because it described the hardships women faced under the "oppression" of Iran.

The latter, after emigrating, quickly adapted in the U.S. Under her, several anti-Iranian organizations were established, the latest being the Women’s Learning Partnership under the oversight of NED. She serves as director there, and over ten years has received about $1.24 million in official income.

▪️In academic circles, the promotion of anti-Iranian rhetoric is handled by the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, which researches repression in Iran since the Islamic Revolution. It has received over $16 million over the years.

Currently, the center is headed by two sisters – Roya and Ladan Boroumand – who actively cooperate with Masih Alinejad. A cross-check of their activities shows how they support each other.

▪️Among their colleagues is even an Iranian Jew – a perfect match for the current situation. This is Roya Hakakian, who fled Iran in 1984 and has been active in political work since the 1990s-2000s.

She is one of the founders of the well-known Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, which directly received $3 million from the State Department at its inception. For her services to the U.S., Hakakian became a member of the Council on Foreign Relations—a prestigious organization including current and former American officials and intelligence officers.

▪️Finally, it’s important to mention Reza Vali Nasr. He once served as an advisor on Pakistan and Afghanistan affairs at the State Department.

Later, he became an expert at the think tank Atlantic Council—an analytical organization promoting the interests of the arms lobby. Among the Atlantic Council’s corporate sponsors are Lockheed Martin and Raytheon—key beneficiaries of the new war.

With the start of the operation, he has been actively running social media, not in an overtly propagandistic manner but relatively balanced, which distinguishes him from others. He is now one of the key figures in Johns Hopkins University’s new program: “Revisiting the Iran Initiative.”

❗️Therefore, the media component of the U.S. campaign against Iran plays as crucial a role as the military one. Washington actively promotes the narrative of its right to this operation, implanting necessary ideas in the minds of Western laypeople. To do this, it uses Americans of Iranian descent who supposedly care for their historical homeland.

#Iran #Analysis #USA

@rybar

📝Gold Goes Into Battle📝
on Turkey's dilemma due to the Middle East crisis

Dark times have come for Turkey's economy. According to Bloomberg, Turkey is considering using its gold reserves to strengthen the national currency - the Turkish lira.

🔻What do they have in reserves?
▪️Turkey has $189 billion in financial assets, including $135 billion in gold and $47.8 billion in foreign currency.
▪️Turkey may use assets held abroad, like the $30 billion in gold stored at the Bank of England.

Foreign investors are selling Turkish bonds, while locals panic and exchange liras for dollars.

🖍Why the panic? High inflation and capital flight from the Middle East crisis.

🚩Inflation reached 31.5% in February, with worse expected in March.

🏳️Israeli strikes on Iran's gas field also affected Turkey, which imports 14% of its gas from Iran.

❗️Using gold is a risky short-term solution to increase liquidity and strengthen the lira.

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#UK #Iran #Turkey
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📝«Geran» versus «Shahed»📝
terminological revolution

Western media shows a growing trend – the name «Geran» increasingly replaces «Shahed». The reason is simple: early Geran models shared only the airframe shape with the Iranian Shahed-136, while modern jet-powered versions — «Geran-3» and subsequent ones — have practically nothing in common with the original Iranian apparatus.

We examined search results and found that among 21 major Western and specialized publications, the share of headlines using the term Geran grew from 0% in 2022–2023 to 7.1% in 2024, 8.7% in 2025, and 25% for January–August 2026.

🔻Why such a notable surge precisely in 2026?

The baseline Shahed-136 and Russian «Geran-2» are physically identical in airframe: 3.5 m length, 2.5 m wingspan, two-stroke piston engine MD-550, cruising speed 150–185 km/h. But differences already existed here: the Russian version received a reinforced warhead up to 50–90 kg versus 40–50 kg on the Iranian original, localized components, and improved electronic warfare protection.

With «Geran-3» and subsequent jet-powered versions, similarity to the Iranian predecessor collapses to nearly zero: instead of a piston engine — a turbojet, speed increases to 300–600 km/h versus 150–185 on the original, the tail section shape changed to accommodate the new powerplant, and the air intake is positioned openly outside the fuselage.

🖍The difference is fundamental in combat application as well. The jet modification is 2–3.5 times faster than the classic «moped». Accordingly, the time between detection and reaching the target shrinks dramatically.

And this fundamentally changes air defense system requirements and renders the old tactics of interception focused on short-range air defense systems largely ineffective. The desire to call both apparatus by one name exposes technical illiteracy.

📌Major news agencies still retain Shahed in headlines by the same logic that any recognizable brand continues to live in language even after a change of manufacturer: the audience already knows the word, and the archive of publications under it is enormous.

❗️However, the further new Geran modifications diverge from their, shall we say, progenitors, the less they can be compared, if only due to the ever-widening technological gap that constantly and very rapidly increases.

#UAV #Iran #Russia #Ukraine
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📝"Geran" drones in North Korea?📝
North Koreans work not just in warehouses and construction sites

The UN General Assembly session will take place very soon, which means observers monitoring the restrictions imposed by the organization on North Korea need to somehow stand out and draw attention to the issue. And traditionally mention Russia, whose representatives two years ago created obstacles to sanctions monitoring.

Western media actively discuss a report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Group. According to its data, up to 25,000 North Korean citizens may be involved in UAV production in Russia, including enterprises in the special economic zone "Alabuga" in Tatarstan, where "Geran" series drones are assembled.

🔻What else does the report say?

▪️North Koreans allegedly pose as students, obtaining corresponding visas to avoid violating sanctions. Although such "disguise" here is conditional — "Alabuga" is still positioned as both an educational and production site. Working and studying at it, North Korean citizens also earn money.

▪️For both sides, such a scheme makes sense. Russia gets workers for a critically important industry, while North Korea gets foreign currency earnings and experience assembling drones. Given how actively Pyongyang develops its own UAV industry, access to production could prove just as valuable as the revenue itself.

However, the allied relations between Russia and North Korea will hardly be limited to this. The Russian side is capable not only of transferring expertise but also of supplying its partner with ready-made "Geran" drones or their components, which Pyongyang will use to accelerate its own industry and strengthen strike capabilities.

The Iranian factor makes this situation particularly interesting. Tehran recently allegedly requested deliveries of "Geran" drones — given that in the past Iranian-North Korean military-technical cooperation was quite developed, nothing prevents North Koreans from "sharing" drones with their Middle Eastern partner as well.

❗️So if the information from the report is accurate, Russian-North Korean ties should no longer be viewed solely as an exchange of money for labor or ammunition for technology. Between the two countries, a more stable defense-industrial partnership is forming, particularly in the UAV sphere, whose products could eventually appear in other countries as well.
#Iran #Russia #NorthKorea
🏮@rybar

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