WSJ / western media now reporting exactly what I’d said yesterday - this is a shutdown of the shipping arteries that carry global food and fertilizer supplies.

Now western media can blame Putin for food shortages. Sure, it’s not the Grand Solar Minimum, or insane C19 policies, etc..

This doesn't need to become nuclear -- it is enough to be a cover story for why there is no food.

___

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine throttled exports from one of the world’s largest grain suppliers after the country’s ports went quiet and traders halted operations. 

At stake is the 13% of global corn exports and the 12% of wheat that flow from Ukraine. In threatening those flows Moscow risks disrupting supplies to China while setting off a scramble among customers in fragile Middle Eastern economies at a time when food inflation is already high. 

An ocean vessel chartered by one of the world’s largest food suppliers, Cargill Inc., was hit by a projectile off the coast of Ukraine in the Black Sea on Thursday. Minnesota-based Cargill, which operates an export terminal in Ukraine, said the ship is seaworthy and no one was injured.

… If the situation on the ground escalates to a position where farmers can’t apply pesticides or fertilizers to their wheat, which will start in March, that could reduce the yield by up to a third, presuming they can harvest in July, Mr. Lee said.

#Ukraine #Wheat #Corn #Shipping #SupplyChain

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-ukraine-invasion-chokes-food-exports-from-global-breadbasket-11645798059

Expect food prices to continue to rise:

Crop production in Ukraine this year could be down anywhere from 20% to 80%, significant,” he said. European farmers have been reducing fertilizer application rates and are adjusting the way they use the products.

“What it means is that we’re going to see lower yields going into the year ahead, so there’s going to be less grain as we come out of this growing season, and therefore high grain prices going over into 2023,” Claxton said.

#wheat #eu #FoodPrices #inflation

https://agfax.com/2022/04/01/sizing-up-ag-effects-of-ukraine-war-dtn/

Drought in the wheat growing areas of USA has latest USDA Winter Wheat crop condition estimates at worst in 10 years. China also claims their wheat is the worst on record. Ukraine/Russia not exporting.

Hard Red Winter wheat is nearly half of the overall US wheat production.

Multiple breadbasket failure.

#Wheat #FoodShortages #FoodPrices #GrandSolarMinimum

https://agfax.com/2022/04/04/1st-seasonal-crop-progress-report-shows-lowest-winter-wheat-condition-in-a-decade-dtn/

Diesel shortage in Punjab, India, impacting wheat harvest/sowing:

Diesel shortage may hit wheat harvesting and sowing of Kharif crops as farmers are queuing up at filling stations to get oil supplies in various areas of Punjab.

Reports particularly from south Punjab districts suggest that diesel is either not available or its supplies are short at filling stations. Farmers who have harvested wheat and are waiting for its threshing are worried that if diesel supplies are not stabilised, their crop may be damaged because of high winds and possible rains in the month of May.

Farmers from various regions blame panic buying for the shortage on the rumours that the oil prices may be increased from May 1. “Some of our colleagues are trying to hoard the oil in anticipation of an increase in its prices, putting stress on the supplies,” says Fayyaz from Chishtian.

#wheat #india

https://www.dawn.com/news/1686632/diesel-dearth-may-hit-wheat-harvesting-kharif-sowing

BREAKING: India mulls export limits on wheat.

We went from “India will step in to cover the Ukraine wheat” to new export limits in about a month.

This is huge. With other major exporters already limiting, Black Sea not shipping, US having worst wheat since ‘89, China worst on record - this really signals the “protectionist” policies (ie keep our food domestic!) will now spread everywhere. And importers are in real trouble.

For more: #wheat in @iceagefarmer

#FoodPrices #FoodShortages #india

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/india-considers-restricting-wheat-exports-as-heat-destroys-crops

India has now flip-flopped and announced they are NOT limiting exports.

I wonder what conversations are going on behind the scenes to motivate an announcement in order to protect domestic food prices, and then suddenly a retraction to continue exporting for now.

#india #wheat

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/india-is-not-moving-to-curb-wheat-exports-official-says

EVACUATE THE GRAIN:

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine, says UN food agency

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday.

“It’s an almost grotesque situation we see at the moment in Ukraine with nearly 25 mln tonnes of grain that could be exported but that cannot leave the country simply because of lack of infrastructure, the blockade of the ports,” Josef Schmidhuber, FAO Deputy Director, Markets and Trade Division told a Geneva press briefing via Zoom.

Schmidhuber said the full silos could result in storage shortages during the next harvest in July and August.

Head of the WTO announced, “It would really help the world if we could evacuate this grain (from Ukraine),” — Earlier this week, the head of the World Trade Organization told Reuters she was “seriously worried” about spiraling food prices and seeking solutions alongside other partners.

#SupplyChain #shipping #wheat #ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-un-grains/nearly-25-million-tonnes-of-grain-stuck-in-ukraine-says-un-food-agency-idUSKCN2MS0PX

Huge: India has banned wheat exports that world needed without Ukraine:

Have long said to watch wheat —

India Bans Wheat Exports in Growing Wave of Food Protectionism

India prohibited wheat exports that the world was counting on to alleviate supply constraints sparked by the war in Ukraine, saying that the nation’s food security is under threat. 
Exports will still be allowed to countries that require wheat for food security needs and based on the requests of their governments. All other new shipments will be banned with immediate effect.

#wheat #india

How quickly India changed their tune as the world figures out there isn’t enough good to go around!

From “we can feed the world!” to banning wheat exports in a matter of weeks.

I’d warned things would escalate quickly but it’s still wild to see - and this is straight from the script of Podesta’s Food Chain Reaction Game…

#india #wheat #FoodShortages

Egypt buys half a million tonnes of wheat from India:

[IAF: This purchase was pending before India announced their ban — will be interesting to see price point.]

Egypt has four months' worth of strategic at reserves and six months of vegetable oils, the country's prime minister said earlier in the day.

Egypt, one of the world's biggest wheat importers, is looking for alternatives to Black Sea grain exports which face disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both major wheat exporters to Egypt.

#Egypt #wheat

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypt-agrees-buy-half-mln-tonnes-indian-wheat-supply-minister-2022-05-15/

tl;dr: European Commission predicts yield of wheat/barley/corn will be down 2.5% YoY due to drought, "experts" rush to blame climate change:

__
Europe is staring into one of its driest summers in living memory.

The drought has already crimped production of hydroelectric power and food, adding to market pressure from the war in Ukraine. Many city authorities have asked residents to cut back their use of drinking water.

With global food flows already squeezed, the drought has Europe’s farmers spooked. [IAF: perhaps not the word I would use for it.] Hungary's agriculture ministry said Wednesday that as of the beginning of the month it had received 8,413 drought damage notifications covering 322,000 hectares in 2022, three times the area of any previous first half of the year.

#EU #wheat #drought

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-temperature-heat-wave-drought/?amp;amp

India has banned wheat exports to protect domestic prices.

Here's why this is a really big deal as we enter full on #FoodWars. Top wheat producers are being hit across the board:

#1 China. (also #1 consumer!)
#2 India. (and now exports are banned.)
#3 Russia (#1 exporter — but Black Sea shipping is affected, and sanctions stop some buyers)
#4 USA (terrible season, drought)
#5 France (drought has severely impacted yields)
#6 Canada (spotty harvest so far)
#7 Germany (drought has severely impacted yields - some est. 50%)
#10 Ukraine

It is these nations that the rest of the world upon for their bread. And bear in mind some major wheat exporters like Kazakhstan have banned wheat/flour exports. Supplies are getting tight and countries are acting defensively. No relief in sight as harvests are looking bad across Northern hemisphere and things are off to poor start in S. America.

Stock up and keep growing food!

#wheat #FoodPrices

🚨 Canada: wheat stocks down 38% year over year.

#canada #FoodPrices #wheat

France to reap worst corn harvest in decades

French farmers are harvesting their smallest corn crop in more than three decades, following the worst drought in at least 500 years that has hit the continent.

The smaller crops in France, which is one of Europe’s agricultural heavyweights, could drive soaring food prices even higher. Fields in Germany and Romania, other key EU producers, have also suffered from drought.

(Cue the media blaming climate change and calls for zero carbon)

#eu #france #corn #wheat

https://www.rt.com/business/562729-france-bad-corn-harvest/

Wheat shortage as Argentine crop disappoints due to drought

Brazil to buy U.S., Canada and Russia wheat as Argentine supplies suffer

#brazil #wheat

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/brazil-to-buy-u.s.-canada-and-russia-wheat-as-argentine-supplies-dwindle

Russia suspends grain deal after this morning’s drone attack on their naval forces.

Also worth noting—because why is no one concerned about this?—that Russia openly accuses UK of involvement in today’s attack, as well as Nordstream sabotage.

Suddenly direct conflict, no longer proxy.

#ukraine #russia #wheat

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-suspends-participation-deal-ukraine-grain-exports-tass-2022-10-29/

🇵🇸 In Gaza Palestinian farmer Itaf Qudeih only harvested a quarter of the wheat she once grew on her land due to shifting weather patterns and poor rainfall in 2022.

#Palestine #Gaza #Agriculture #Wheat #Flour #Food