Forwarded from SITREP - Independent OSINT Channel
⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇷🧨 Tehran is being pushed towards War - Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on the Terrorist Attack in #Iran⚡️
🗓 On 3 January 2020, the Americans assassinated one of Iran's main symbols, Qasem Suleimani. On 3 January 2024, terrorists blew up a funeral procession dedicated to his memory. The death toll is now over 100.
🔹In all cultures, even criminal ones, killing in cemeteries is considered unacceptable and condemned. But in this case it is also a demonstrative challenge to Tehran: "We will kill your leaders and anyone who follows them. Even the dead."
🔹And the bombings come less than a day after a strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where the IDF killed a Hamas leader. For Israel and the United States, Hamas (like the Yemeni Houthis) is also #Iran, and the war in Gaza is perceived as an indirect clash with Tehran, similar to how in #Ukraine Russia is primarily at war not with Kiev but with #NATO.
🔹On the agenda are Tel Aviv's readiness for a full-scale invasion of #Lebanon and US-British plans to strike #Yemen. However, the West realises that even the elimination of Hezbollah (which is hardly possible) and the destruction of the Houthis (which is impossible in principle) do not solve their main problem. This problem is not the Iranian regime, but the Iranian state itself, which has turned into the main regional player in the Middle East.
🔹The project that Tehran is building is no longer just a Shiite project. Shiite groups remain an important instrument of Iranian policy, but there are also enough Sunnis among the supporters of the Islamic Republic. And their numbers are growing. From #Morocco to #Pakistan, Muslims are asking themselves: "How is it that the rich Sunni states lie down to the Zionists and the Americans, while the Rafidis [an insulting nickname for Shiites] fight them?".
🔹The main danger for the West is that #Iran has managed to create its own world, invulnerable to American pressure and international sanctions. This world is expanding, drawing more and more forces into its orbit, and time is working in Iran's favour. The Islamic Republic's military-industrial complex is a vivid example of this.
🔹That is why the West is trying hard to push Tehran to "retaliate", which will lead to a full-fledged war, believing that today Iran will not pull it out and will collapse under its own weight.
🔹It doesn't matter which particular group will claim responsibility. It will probably be the local "branch" of ISIS, which is banned in Russia. What is important is that in Iran itself this attack is perceived as a second assassination of Suleimani, organised by the same forces.
📌 The Iranian State may look as cruel as it likes, but it has no right to appear weak. This is too dangerous for both internal stability and the viability of the project itself. This means that Tehran will have to respond in any case. But this is exactly what the West is pushing him to do.
📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov specially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel; 3 Jan 2024, 17:15
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🗓 On 3 January 2020, the Americans assassinated one of Iran's main symbols, Qasem Suleimani. On 3 January 2024, terrorists blew up a funeral procession dedicated to his memory. The death toll is now over 100.
🔹In all cultures, even criminal ones, killing in cemeteries is considered unacceptable and condemned. But in this case it is also a demonstrative challenge to Tehran: "We will kill your leaders and anyone who follows them. Even the dead."
🔹And the bombings come less than a day after a strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where the IDF killed a Hamas leader. For Israel and the United States, Hamas (like the Yemeni Houthis) is also #Iran, and the war in Gaza is perceived as an indirect clash with Tehran, similar to how in #Ukraine Russia is primarily at war not with Kiev but with #NATO.
🔹On the agenda are Tel Aviv's readiness for a full-scale invasion of #Lebanon and US-British plans to strike #Yemen. However, the West realises that even the elimination of Hezbollah (which is hardly possible) and the destruction of the Houthis (which is impossible in principle) do not solve their main problem. This problem is not the Iranian regime, but the Iranian state itself, which has turned into the main regional player in the Middle East.
🔹The project that Tehran is building is no longer just a Shiite project. Shiite groups remain an important instrument of Iranian policy, but there are also enough Sunnis among the supporters of the Islamic Republic. And their numbers are growing. From #Morocco to #Pakistan, Muslims are asking themselves: "How is it that the rich Sunni states lie down to the Zionists and the Americans, while the Rafidis [an insulting nickname for Shiites] fight them?".
🔹The main danger for the West is that #Iran has managed to create its own world, invulnerable to American pressure and international sanctions. This world is expanding, drawing more and more forces into its orbit, and time is working in Iran's favour. The Islamic Republic's military-industrial complex is a vivid example of this.
🔹That is why the West is trying hard to push Tehran to "retaliate", which will lead to a full-fledged war, believing that today Iran will not pull it out and will collapse under its own weight.
🔹It doesn't matter which particular group will claim responsibility. It will probably be the local "branch" of ISIS, which is banned in Russia. What is important is that in Iran itself this attack is perceived as a second assassination of Suleimani, organised by the same forces.
📌 The Iranian State may look as cruel as it likes, but it has no right to appear weak. This is too dangerous for both internal stability and the viability of the project itself. This means that Tehran will have to respond in any case. But this is exactly what the West is pushing him to do.
📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov specially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel; 3 Jan 2024, 17:15
t.me/sitreports /@voenkorKotenok/#ira/
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В результате теракта в Иранском Кермане против поминальной процессии посвященной генералу Сулеймани было убито более 80 человек и боле 200 получили ранения различной степени тяжести.
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇬🇧 🇵🇰 National elections in Pakistan: a colossal failure of pro-British forces in the country
Yesterday, Pakistan held its national parliamentary elections. According to the election committee, the number of registered voters exceeded 128 million.
The battle was primarily between five parties, with the focus on two of them: the Justice Movement (JM) led by Imran Khan and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led byShahbaz Nawaz Sharif.
❓The purpose of these elections was to politically eliminate former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, by the Sharif family, who are controlled by the British crown, and the military command led by Asim Munir.
Imran Khan, accused of various unfounded violations, abuse of power, and corruption, was sentenced to 14 years in prison. Even his wife, Bushra Bibi, was imprisoned.
The government of Shahbaz Sharif hoped to clear the way for their victory in the elections. A few months earlier, Nawaz Sharif's disgraced elder brother returned to the country, miraculously cleared of all corruption charges.
🔻However, the plan of the current authorities turned out to be a failure. They failed to consider that Khan's popularity is so great that his imprisonment under false pretenses would only increase his ratings. And this was reflected in the results.
▪️ From the beginning of the vote counting, the Justice Movement began to pull ahead of its opponents. In the two largest provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, as well as in the capital region, the Justice Movement emerged as the leader with devastating results.
▪️ Even in other regions like Balochistan or Sindh, where Imran Khan barely received any votes in the past, he gained a significant amount of support. Preliminary data shows that by evening, the Justice Movement already had 154 seats out of the required 169 to obtain a majority and form a government.
❗️And amidst the disaster faced by Sharif's party, something interesting happened: first, there were internet outages across the country, causing issues with vote counting. Then hundreds and even thousands of security forces and military personnel began to appear at polling stations.
As a result, the counting was indefinitely halted. Imran Khan's party declared victory and urged supporters not to leave the polling stations, claiming that "the elections could be stolen."
Only 12 hours after the end of voting did the official presentation of the results begin, leading to the fair assumption that Sharif's leadership may have intervened to manipulate the votes in order to at least form a coalition government.
🔻In recent years, no party has obtained a majority, and the cabinet has always included representatives from different groups. Therefore, the current situation of the PML is truly disheartening, as the level of public support is catastrophically low. The last time the Pakistan Muslim League achieved a majority was in 1997.
The possibility of interference in the elections cannot be ruled out, as the Sharif family, especially Nawaz Sharif, is determined to hold on to power. This raises the question: will they go to such lengths? Certainly, it will not be possible to avoid the discontent of the population in that case.
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English version
#UK #Pakistan
@rybar
Support us Original msg
Yesterday, Pakistan held its national parliamentary elections. According to the election committee, the number of registered voters exceeded 128 million.
The battle was primarily between five parties, with the focus on two of them: the Justice Movement (JM) led by Imran Khan and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by
❓The purpose of these elections was to politically eliminate former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, by the Sharif family, who are controlled by the British crown, and the military command led by Asim Munir.
Imran Khan, accused of various unfounded violations, abuse of power, and corruption, was sentenced to 14 years in prison. Even his wife, Bushra Bibi, was imprisoned.
The government of Shahbaz Sharif hoped to clear the way for their victory in the elections. A few months earlier, Nawaz Sharif's disgraced elder brother returned to the country, miraculously cleared of all corruption charges.
🔻However, the plan of the current authorities turned out to be a failure. They failed to consider that Khan's popularity is so great that his imprisonment under false pretenses would only increase his ratings. And this was reflected in the results.
▪️ From the beginning of the vote counting, the Justice Movement began to pull ahead of its opponents. In the two largest provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, as well as in the capital region, the Justice Movement emerged as the leader with devastating results.
▪️ Even in other regions like Balochistan or Sindh, where Imran Khan barely received any votes in the past, he gained a significant amount of support. Preliminary data shows that by evening, the Justice Movement already had 154 seats out of the required 169 to obtain a majority and form a government.
❗️And amidst the disaster faced by Sharif's party, something interesting happened: first, there were internet outages across the country, causing issues with vote counting. Then hundreds and even thousands of security forces and military personnel began to appear at polling stations.
As a result, the counting was indefinitely halted. Imran Khan's party declared victory and urged supporters not to leave the polling stations, claiming that "the elections could be stolen."
Only 12 hours after the end of voting did the official presentation of the results begin, leading to the fair assumption that Sharif's leadership may have intervened to manipulate the votes in order to at least form a coalition government.
🔻In recent years, no party has obtained a majority, and the cabinet has always included representatives from different groups. Therefore, the current situation of the PML is truly disheartening, as the level of public support is catastrophically low. The last time the Pakistan Muslim League achieved a majority was in 1997.
The possibility of interference in the elections cannot be ruled out, as the Sharif family, especially Nawaz Sharif, is determined to hold on to power. This raises the question: will they go to such lengths? Certainly, it will not be possible to avoid the discontent of the population in that case.
High-resolution map
English version
#UK #Pakistan
@rybar
Support us Original msg
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
and will Gerans fly after it?
Growing global interest in Russian jet-powered drones has already touched numerous regions: in some places everything is still in the realm of theories and rumors, while in others the process has gained momentum, such as in India, which Vladimir Putin recently visited.
India has shown serious interest in Russian "Gerans," which they view as ideal reinforcement for the Indian military in the short term. The conflict with Pakistan exposed weaknesses in India's Armed Forces, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi views such a purchase favorably.
Moreover, in most cases Indian military personnel could do this from deep in the rear, since Pakistani strategic facilities are located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country near the capital in Islamabad and, of course, in Karachi.
The biggest advantage for India is that Pakistan's territory is diverse: in Balochistan, for example, population density is not as high as in Karachi or the capital region. Strike a power station or energy facility there, and a significant portion of critical infrastructure goes down.
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English version
#India #Pakistan #Russia
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