"To be able to predict the possibility of a hypothetical 'agreement' at the current stage, we must first return to the basic question of February 2022: understanding what objectives both sides are pursuing in the conflict and what ideas they have about its prospects.

Is controlling four regions of Ukraine, reducing the size of its army, and maintaining military neutrality Russia's war aim, which would bring it complete victory? Of course not.

For the other side, would the loss of control of four regions, the reduction in the size of its army, and military neutrality mean a total defeat for kyiv? No, not either.

The initial objective of the Russian military campaign was precisely to restore political control over the entire former Ukrainian SSR and eliminate the threat of its entry into NATO through the use of military force. This was not an attempt to physically seize a handful of additional regions that Russia did not need. Taking control of them simply provides something to sink its teeth into for the protracted campaign.

The complete or partial acquisition of four regions will physically expand Russia's sphere of influence, but the kyiv regime will continue to rule over a vast territory that poses an extreme threat to Russia on land, sea, and air. Moreover, it will continue to be supported by most Western countries. This clearly does not play into Russia's hands and does not resolve the initial problem.

From the outset, the goal of Kyiv and its Western allies was to preserve the current political regime in Kyiv and the Ukrainian state. The complete or partial loss of four regions will be an extremely painful outcome for Kyiv, but by no means fatal, since the country will not come under Russian political control in its entirety. Kyiv retains not only its central power, but also access to the Black Sea, a critical point for Russian maritime security.

All abstract commitments about neutrality, army reduction, recognition of Russia's control over the territory it controls and other wonderful ideas should be considered temporary, they will be violated as soon as possible for a convenient pretext (cf. Minsk-1 and Minsk-2).

As the military campaign dragged on, we moved from the Istanbul agreement, which granted kyiv very broad concessions, to slightly less favorable conditions.

Given the lengthy negotiations, the continuation of the war will further reduce the concessions granted to kyiv.

The kyiv authorities understand that without the full support of the United States, they will lose their arguments justifying these Russian concessions, because Europe will not be able to compensate for anything militarily.

Therefore, reaching an agreement will depend on Kyiv's belief that US support will cease and that Moscow will be able to continue the war without resorting to a new mobilization. On the Russian side, Moscow could also have an incentive to negotiate if it believes that a new, massive, politically costly mobilization is becoming inevitable.
https://t.me/milinfolive/146885

#Ukraine #US #EU #Nato #Russia

Patrick Lancaster From the Frontlines of #Ukraine-#Russia War- Kamikaze Drones & Attacks on Christians

Over the past years, countless American journalists have embedded with Zelensky’s military. On the Russian side, there’s only one: Patrick Lancaster.

(0:00) Introduction
(1:15) The War Started Much Earlier Than You Think
(5:07) Ukrainian Attacks on the Hometown of Lancaster’s Wife
(11:52) It All Changed 3 Years Ago
(16:47) Kamikaze Attack Drones
(23:03) Who’s Winning?
(24:52) How Many People Have Died in this War?
(33:59) Russia’s Attempt to House Victims of War
(37:26) Ukraine’s War on Christianity
(38:59) Reports of North Korean Soldiers on the Ground
(39:25) How Many American Journalists Are Covering Russia’s Perspective?
(45:45) The Lies of Corporate Media
(48:02) Ukraine’s Targeting of Lancaster
(52:10) How Many Americans Have Been Killed in the War?
(56:33) When Will the War End?
(1:01:01) American Weapons Being Sold on the Black Market
(1:02:32) Why Are Americans Supporting the War?

@TuckerTonight

IGOR STRELKOV: THE STRATEGIC SITUATION FOR RUSSIA CONTINUES TO WORSEN

Regarding the question of prospects, I reiterate:

1) The war will continue "to attrition" and this is extremely disadvantageous for Russia, but it is better than "accelerated capitulation" (even "disguised"). It is very good and great that #Zelensky and his British-American masters are so stubborn - otherwise they would have been given another wonderful and advantageous opportunity to "lead you know who by the nose".

2) In May, we are in for many "major troubles" - both in the narrow military and military-political "theaters of military operations". The enemy has serious "held" reserves, and our forces in a number of directions are seriously depleted by continuous but ineffective attacks. Nevertheless, we do not have a "fatal inevitability of major defeats" - much depends on the tactical actions of the enemy and our own command.

3) The strategic situation for #Russia continues to rapidly deteriorate - #Britain, #France and #Italy are gradually, "sneakingly" being drawn into the war. #Romania and #Turkey are next in line (and in the future, Poland + the "Baltic bastards"). The bragging of our media and their assurances that "without the #US, the Europeans are not capable of fighting" are frankly infuriating: We have not been able to defeat one so-called "Ukraine" in three years. Why are we so sure that we will be able to defeat "#Ukraine + all of #EU"?

Sincerely,

I.V. Girkin 04/25/2025
https://t.me/strelkovii/7039

The Road to War in Ukraine — The History of NATO and US Military Exercises With Ukraine — Part 1 https://sonar21.com/

The Road to War in Ukraine — The History of NATO and US Military Exercises With Ukraine — Part 2

The Road to War in Ukraine — The History of NATO and US Military Exercises With Ukraine — Part 3

@sonar_21
#Ukraine #Nato #Russia #US

IGOR STRELKOV: THERE WILL BE NO "CEASEFIRE"

I read excerpts from Kharichev's article with a grin. - I see in it "classic late-Soviet noodles for the population". That is, people who THEMSELVES DO NOT BELIEVE IN ANYTHING LIKE THIS AT ALL - are trying to hypocritically "FORD" the "masses" an ideology convenient for controlling them ("the masses"). They themselves not only will not follow it (the ideology), but also do not intend to in principle, since THEY HAVE STRIVED ALL THEIR LIFE NOT TO SERVE, BUT TO ENRICH THEM AND PLEASURE at the expense of others. Well, we have already “been through” all this at the previous stages of the “post-Bolshevik development of Russia” (and the Bolsheviks, having “blundered into the world revolution,” actively exploited something similar, or tried to – strictly as needed, of course).

Now about the main thing: everything is absolutely clear on the front. – We can take 2-3 “Small Gadyukinos” (and even “Big Gadyukinos”) per week, “demolish” as many forest plantations and strongholds as we like, etc., but we did not achieve strategic success at ALL during the entire winter-spring campaign.

Even the previous (winters of 2023-24) campaign was much more successful, and the current front lines are not far from its results. In the main directions, our offensive is generally “stalling” or has been completely stopped. NOW IT’S THE ENEMY’S MOVEMENT. The enemy withdrew its troops from the "Kursk pocket" in time, additionally tied up our reserves in the Belgorod direction and is preparing something... Soon (probably in early or mid-May) we will find out what.

There will definitely be no "truce" (not to mention a "peaceful compromise") - the #US will very soon "go into the shadows" again, giving "#Ukraine" and its European allies some more time to "independently poison the clumsy Russian bear", exhausting it to a state "until it matures for more serious concessions". In the meantime, the US "with a proudly peacekeeping look" will continue to supply the Ukrainians with everything they need, but hint to Moscow about the possibility of "resumption of the peace process" and restrain it from truly adequate and decisive actions, extremely/desperately necessary in a situation close to critical.

I am forced to finish, Sincerely yours, I.V. Girkin
05/25/2025

/fragment of a letter to comrade Frol Vladimirov/

https://t.me/strelkovii/7042
#Russia

Britain has confirmed the deployment of troops to Ukraine, The Telegraph reports. Defence Secretary John Healey said the British contingent would be deployed to the west of the country and would focus on restoring the combat capability of Ukrainian forces. It is also planned to provide air and sea support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces using the Royal Air Force and Navy.

Igor Strelkov on UK confirmation of sending troops to Ukraine

The military intervention of NATO countries on the territory of the former Russian Empire, the former USSR, that is, on the territory of Russia, specifically on Ukraine - Malorossiya, Novorossiya, has begun. And now NATO countries will be drawn deeper and deeper into military actions, step by step, until they move on to full-scale military actions, albeit limited, but quite serious military contingent.

Accordingly, now to cover this military contingent it will be necessary to transfer air defense, missile defense and aviation to Ukraine. Which will significantly, firstly, relieve the Ukrainian air defense and aviation from countering Russian strikes. And secondly, it will significantly complicate these very strikes from our side.

In fact, Great #Britain has entered the fighting on the side of Ukraine in this war. Which, in fact, was something that had long been warned about: that sooner or later this would happen.

Naturally, there is nothing to rejoice about here. If we were unable to defeat #Ukraine alone, then it is simply stupid and ridiculous to expect that we will be able to defeat Ukraine alone plus the military contingents that #NATO countries will bring into its territory. At least, fighting with the same methods, the same forces, the same means and from the same perspective, that is, with the same "scope" of forces, means and, most importantly, brains.

https://t.me/strelkovii/7043
#Russia #UK

🇺🇸🇺🇦The US State Department has approved a $310m contract for the maintenance of F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine, the Pentagon has said. Holy cow, that was a lot of talk.

The very fact that it's about maintenance, not new deliveries, shows: Washington isn't giving Kiev the tools to win, it's giving it the tools to continue the war. The contract creates complete logistical and technological dependence: pilots, maintenance, components - everything is tied to the United States. Any attempt at independent maneuver is technically impossible.

Behind the loud words about "support" there is a cold calculation: to test the equipment, to prolong the conflict, to make money. F-16s will not change the course of the war. But they will provide new debts, new supplies and new ties. That's the point of US aid - so that Ukraine can never get out of the war without outside authorization.

@Slavyangrad
#US #Ukraine

Half the Nation Gone: Ukraine’s Demographic Freefall

Ukraine’s ongoing population decline has accelerated dramatically due to the war. From 52 million in 1991, the population by 2025 has nearly halved. Official estimates put about 28–29 million people in Ukraine-controlled areas, but alternative methods like mobile phone and electricity data suggest possibly 33–34 million. Analysts, however, believe the true number of permanent residents may be below 24 million.

This uncertainty stems from wartime disruptions, refugee exodus, internal displacement, and falling birth rates. #Ukraine’s last #census was in 2001, forcing reliance on unconventional methods. The population is now older, more female, and significantly reduced, posing severe economic, military, and national stability challenges.

#War prevents traditional counting via censuses or registries, as millions have relocated, complicating government tracking. Basic #population questions for major cities remain unanswered.

@southfronteng
#Demographics

Igor Strelkov on Putin and Trump's phone conversation

Well, how can I comment on this wonderful conversation?

It is clear that negotiations will be conducted. It is equally clear to me that they will not lead to anything. But Trump also needs to save face in order to act as a peacemaker, and not to declare that the initiated negotiations have failed. And it is in Vladimir Vladimirovich's interests to save face, pretending that the United States is not a belligerent party, although they continue to supply Ukraine with all types of weapons and ammunition. And it is in Ukraine's interests, since they are waging a war of attrition together with Europe and the United States behind them against Russia, to appear as peace-loving.

In general, negotiations are beneficial to everyone. This will not affect the course of the war in any way. My forecast remains the same: in the near future we will face quite serious battles at the front. And there will be no truce in the near future.

As a matter of fact, there will be no peace treaty, much less a peace treaty, until one of the parties admits its defeat in this war. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready for this. I have already said this dozens of times, I can only repeat it.

https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/1570
#Russia #Ukraine

Helicopter Carrying Putin To Kursk Encountered Ukrainian Drone Attack

A helicopter carrying Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Kursk region was at the epicenter of a Ukrainian drone attack, the commander of the air defense division, Yuri Dashkin, told the Rossiya-24 TV channel on May 25.

The commander said the encounter took place on May 20. Putin was on his way to Kursk, which was recently liberated from Kiev forces, on a working visit.

As the helicopter was flying over #Kursk with the presidential board, the intensity of the Ukrainian drone attack increased significantly, according to Dashkin.

“We simultaneously conducted an anti-aircraft battle and ensured the safety of the president’s helicopter flight in the air,” said the commander, adding that the attack by Ukrainian drones was successfully repelled.

@southfronteng
#Ukraine #Russia

IGOR STRELKOV: THE PROLONGATION OF THE MILITARY CONFLICT IS TO THE ENEMY'S BENEFIT

Thank you for the detailed news summary from 19.05.25! I don't see much point in commenting on it yet, since almost all events are "within the boundaries" of the previously given strategic forecast. - The war will continue at least until late autumn (and most likely even further) and will end (possibly) only when one of the parties admits (publicly or secretly - it doesn't matter) its military defeat. So far this has not happened and is not expected. - I have already written about this more than once.

Apparently, both sides are preparing for offensive operations, but a truly major "turning point" is not expected in the near future, objectively (although both sides can "miss the blow", of course - that's what war is for, to be full of unexpected events). In any case, the prolongation of the military conflict is to the advantage (as before) of the enemy - he is "putting together" a strong coalition, "creepingly" preparing to introduce foreign military contingents into "#Ukraine". In addition, the industrial capabilities of the EU, the USA (and China!), supported by a virtually unlimited number of "yards" of money - objectively lead to an escalation of the "air war" against Russia in increasingly dangerous and destructive proportions: soon the war will really "knock on every door" not only in the form of fresh graves in military cemeteries and "cheerful" messages on TV... This is advantageous to the enemy, of course.

And we still have “inarticulate mumbling” instead of a clear strategy to eliminate the threat “at its root” - i.e. the military-political defeat of the “Kyiv partners”.

Sincerely, I. V. Girkin
25.05.2025

/fragment of a letter to Getmanov's comrade Alexander/
#Russia #Nato
https://t.me/strelkovii/7073

Free #Ukraine

🇺🇦 Around 7 million people have fled Ukraine

As of April 2025, 6.9 million Ukrainians are living abroad. These figures were reported by the National Bank of Ukraine in its June macroeconomic and monetary review, citing UN statistics. Since the beginning of the year, another 100,000 migrants have left the country.

At the same time, according to the agency, as of March 2025, #Ukraine is home to 3.8 million internally displaced persons — an increase of 188,000 compared to the start of the year.

@ukraine_watch

IGOR STRELKOV: FORECAST FOR THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN

At the same time, since only such actions are possible at the tactical level (in reality, not in theory): it means that the solution must be sought “at a higher level”. I have some thoughts on this matter, but I am keeping them to myself for now: I still need to “gather” some information and double-check the correctness of my own understanding of the realities of modern “machine* war”.

Otherwise:

1) The forecast for the "wide offensive on Sumy-Kharkov-Dnipro-Zaporizhia" "suspected" by many is purely negative. We do not have any forces for this now. With the available forces we can (probably) take 1-2 cities like Vovchansk/Chasova Yar/Pokrovsk (maybe all three of the above + something else in Sumy Oblast) by the end of summer, but no more than that (or rather less, since the enemy will not "sit idly by" either and has forces and will continue to have them). Hence the second (below):

2) I am almost certain that in the near future the president's threatening statements will be backed up by a new (partial or broad - I won't say) mobilization, which alone can significantly "change the balance of power" on the "Ukrainian front". (Although I have already written more than once about the dangers of this step - as very, very belated - it is, nevertheless, absolutely impossible to do without it, if there are no other plans but to lose the war, of course).

https://t.me/strelkovii/7090
#Russia #Ukraine #Nato

IGOR STRELKOV ON ISRAEL'S ATTACK ON IRAN

An attack on Iran has long been expected: I believe that without permission, coordination and direct support from the United States, Israel would not have done anything like this, especially on such a large scale. This is, of course, not a limited action, given the number of casualties among Iran's top military and political leadership. Iran will, of course, respond, and, in my opinion, is already responding.

In general, we have the beginning of a major Middle East war, in which Iran's position is very weak. Why weak? Because Israel has superbly prepared the field for its attack by taking a series of consistent actions. First, they "removed" the Iranian president, who supported #Syria and #Assad. The next Iranian president withdrew troops from Syria, which greatly weakened the position of the Syrian government.

Accordingly, within two weeks Syria was defeated and destroyed: most of it came under Turkish control, and a significant part under Israeli control (the strategically important Dutch Heights). Now Iran has virtually no way to reach Israel by land without entering into direct confrontation with #Turkey. And Turkey has a very strong army, and it will be very difficult for Iran to fight it.

Now Israel, naturally, using its significant superiority in missile and aircraft weapons, is striking Iran, without counting on a serious and truly painful response.

Well, if Iran takes any action, perhaps the US, which stands behind Israel, will get involved and will take advantage of the opportunity to defeat Iran.

What does this threaten us with? For us, this threatens two things. The first and most important thing is the termination of our "southern corridor", since we actively supplied oil and other raw materials to India and other countries through Iran. This was a fairly important route for us. Now we have only China left in the east as a transit route for our products.

Secondly, of course, Iran is now being attacked and, losing more and more industrial facilities, will not be able to supply us with the weapons and ammunition that it supplied before, which will also have an impact on the course of military operations in #Ukraine.

https://t.me/strelkovii/7094
#Iran #US #Israel #Russia

The #AI That Triggered a War: How Palantir and the IAEA Fueled israel’s strike on Iran
A $50M software built for counterinsurgency now steers nuclear diplomacy... and may have lit the fuse for a regional war.

https://ddgeopolitics.substack.com/p/the-ai-that-triggered-a-war-how-palantir

...But what if the intelligence fueling this war came not from Mossad or Pentagon satellites but from a #UN agency’s software? Since 2015, the #IAEA has relied on #Palantir’s #Mosaic platform, a $50-million AI system that sifts 400 million data points—satellite imagery, social media, personnel logs—to predict nuclear threats. On June 12, Iran leaked documents it claimed showed IAEA chief Rafael Grossi shared Mosaic outputs with Israel, effectively turning the agency into a “tool for aggression.” The charge echoes a pattern: prior to 2025, Mosaic data helped shape sanctions and even UN aid decisions despite risks of bias...

...The problem? Mosaic’s lineage screams bias. Funded by #InQTel, the CIA’s venture arm, #Palantir powers IDF targeting in #Gaza and #Ukraine’s #drone strikes. Mosaic’s black-box algorithms, unauditable and proprietary, risk turning the IAEA from neutral inspector into a data proxy for preemptive war. As we’ll explore with Fordow’s role, this software may have already crossed that line, threatening the Non-Proliferation Treaty it was meant to uphold...

...Mosaic, crunching 400 million data points since 2015, mapped Fordow’s centrifuge cascades and satellite imagery, flagging anomalies as threats. Its AI, built for counterinsurgency, predicts intent—perfect for crafting a “nine-bomb” narrative. The May 31 report cited undeclared traces at Lavisan-Shian and Turquzabad, echoing 2018 when Mosaic’s findings sparked sanctions despite Iran’s “sabotage” claims. Iran’s nuclear chief, Behrouz Kamalvandi, alleged in 2025 that Turquzabad’s coordinates were “planted,” suggesting fabricated evidence. Iran’s June 12 leak, claiming Rafael Grossi shared Mosaic data with Israel, deepened suspicions...

...The answer lies in Mosaic’s design. Originally built to identify insurgent activity in Iraq and Afghanistan, Mosaic infers hostile intent from indirect indicators—metadata, behavioral patterns, signal traffic—not from confirmed evidence. When repurposed for nuclear oversight, this logic translates correlation into alarm. That Mosaic also powers IDF targeting systems in Gaza and Ukraine makes its presence inside the IAEA all the more explosive...

@FuryRoad_Intel

The US has stopped all arms deliveries to Ukraine, Ukrainian officials told The Economist.

“Ukrainian officials say they have effectively stopped all deliveries of US weapons, including shells and spare parts, a claim denied by the US government. Officials have clarified that the review is global in nature and that any suspension could be reversed in the future”

The Pentagon is presenting the pause as a limited and temporary measure. But Ukrainian officials suspect “a more concerted effort by the Trump admin to squeeze political concessions out of #Ukraine,” as was the case in early March after Zelensky’s conflict with Trump in the White House.

“Ukraine’s front is unlikely to collapse in the coming months, even as Russia gradually advances. However, Ukraine faces a grim reality: the fewer weapons it gets, the more people and territory it loses”

It was previously reported that the US had suspended deliveries of only a few critical weapons to Ukraine. Including AD missiles and F-16 fighters.

@Slavyangrad