French Center for Intelligence Research :

As the fog of war lifts ... »

Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement – https://cf2r.org/editorial/as-the-fog-of-war-lifts/

#Negociations #NordStream2 #US #Nato #Ukraine #Zelinski #EU #SMO #Russia #ISS
#FogOfWar

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Many still expect further enemy attacks in places without defenders: Bryansk, Belgorod or elsewhere in Kursk. But especially across the Dnieper, on Energodar and/or the eastern bank of Kherson. The attack on Kursk would then be a serious diversion for a serious attack to the south.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/134329

👉 The clues have been around for a long time, but we must admit that we know nothing about the strength of the enemy. However, we know more about the strength of the Russian army. In the event of a landing across the Dnieper, or even in Crimea, we should expect very bad news, because the enemy will have a clear path.

I remind you that the enemy is fascinated by Crimea and has been attacking for several quarters all the logistical routes (Crimean/Kerch bridge, landing ships, bridges on the land route to Rostov), ​​all the ammunition and fuel depots, the anti-aircraft systems, the radars, the air bases in Crimea, Rostov, Krasnodar, in the Kuban in general.

On the contrary, everyone will have noticed that he did not attack anything to prepare his attack on Kursk! This means that it is not excluded that something very big is being prepared between Crimea included and Energodar / Zaporozhye. With a level of Russian defenses almost zero, but with the difficulty of a bridgehead that will be, a little , attacked by the Russian aviation (hence the regular attacks on Russian air bases) and some long-range missiles.

All this is theoretical , it all depends on the enemy's real capabilities , his willingness to deceive the Russian army, his willingness to take risks , and his ability to do so ... If he wants to take the initiative that Russia has kindly offered him since the spring of 2022 , he is spoiled for choice. If this is the enemy's plan, if this ambitious plan is accessible to him, if he has the ability , then the worst of the war is yet to come (or the defeat of Russia by the rapid signing of an armistice and a peace treaty in the style of the unfavorable compromises of 1856: this option is no longer even mentioned by me, we will talk about it again this evening).

➡️ The fault will be entirely attributed to the Russian political and military elite who did not commit the necessary resources to their ambitions from the start, between 2013/2014 when a simple police operation was enough, and 2022, and who spend their time underestimating their enemies , the Islamic terrorists in Syria, the Bandera in its southwest.

➡️ Attacking in February 2022 was impossible without preparations : either it was necessary to prepare from the beginning of 2020 , or it was necessary to launch preparations in early 2022 to attack in 2024 or even later , with the only valid plan to attack through Volyn-Uzhgorod, targeting Odessa to cut off the enemy rear, while holding the enemy back everywhere else (the preparations could easily be disguised by the usual Zapad exercises in Belarus). Such a plan could not fail . Added to this was the subsequent objective of a total and definitive resumption of control over the former Ukrainian SSR that seceded in 1991 with the hunt for the Bandera , as was done in the 1940s and 1950s.
This required a lot of troops (more than today), such a mobilization would not have gone unnoticed and would have required deceiving the enemy by pretending to remain naive: "we are mobilizing to dissuade you from attacking the Donbass"...

🔺 If it was impossible to mobilize massively, there was no need to go to war.

Via @ZZ_0Z_Z0ZZ_fr
#SMO #Russia #Ukraine

The Russian military epic in Kursk | Telegraph

If Ukraine had carried out a similar operation, the media coverage would have likely been immense, with the actions being exalted for months. But in the case of Russia, the story remains hidden in the background because the enemy does not want to acknowledge the grandeur of this event. However, for the Russian soldiers and for those who witnessed the results of this operation, it will be remembered for generations as one of the greatest tactical victories of modern warfare.

What happened in Kursk was not just a complex logistical mission. It was an epic feat that demonstrated the willpower, spirit of sacrifice, and discipline of the Russian troops. They did not become heroes by chance; they faced the unthinkable and, instead of succumbing, emerged victorious, breaking through Ukrainian defenses and capturing strategic positions that had been since August 2024 under the control of the enemy – who was since then causing terror among the local Russian civilians in nearby villages.

This event should be remembered as a remarkable example of human resilience in times of war, a true epic worthy of the greatest historical accounts.

Via @strategic_culture
#Ukraine #Russia #Kursk #Pipeline #SMO

SMO 20/03/2022

Here's a piece of real war for you... We lost some guys, sent a 'bird' to search and found them in a crater where they had taken cover from the intense fire. They waved to us and we pulled them out at night. Hooray!

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/1989
#SMO #Ukraine #RAF
#хроники_сво

- -

On the front, our "rapid advance" is, as I have already said, about 19.5 meters per day in the Zaporizhzhia direction. And in other directions, it cannot be said that everything is very good either. We took Kupyansk for the second time and lost it for the second time (or almost lost it).

In general, we have come to a situation that is significantly worse than it was 4 years ago in terms of victory prospects.

Today I managed to catch a glimpse on TV of our leader's speech at an FSB board meeting, and if you put aside the numerous "uh" "um" "uh" that took up a significant part of his unscripted speech, if I am not mistaken, the phrase "to slow down the peace process" was heard again. From this, I conclude that even 4 years after the start of the special military operation, after "Istanbul-1", after "Istanbul-2", after the "spirit of Anchorage", there is no understanding in Moscow that a war of annihilation is being waged against us. They do not want to accept it.

This means that the war will continue in the same format as now, that is, without the possibility of winning it and hoping that sooner or later the enemy will be exhausted.

In fact, there is mutual exhaustion of Russia and Ukraine at the expense of the lives of Russian people on both sides, at the expense of the destruction of the industry of both Ukraine and Russia. And the main warring parties on the other side have not yet entered the fray.

At one time, the meme "Russia did not show up for the war" was popular, referring to Crimea and Donbas. Now the same can be said with much more reason about the United States, England, France, and all NATO countries. They have not yet come to war, but are actively preparing for it. Actively, but not in a hurry, because we give them time for calm preparation for war, for building military industry, for accumulating weapons and ammunition, for preparing their armies, which are in a rather deplorable state. We give them all this time. This is all very bad, it is already clear.

Therefore, unfortunately, there is nothing to congratulate. Congratulations can only be given to our beloved leaders who have brought the situation to the current moment. The leadership of the General Staff, the former leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the Federal Security Service and other structures responsible for preparation, including intelligence, for conducting this so-called special military operation.

And the main thanks, of course, go to our supreme commander-in-chief, who demonstrated an amazing leadership style of "one step forward, two steps back, jumping in place, and again one step forward, two steps back." This is not how you fight — this is how you only lose wars.

Our prospects, unfortunately, are bleak.

Source: Miroslava's channel
https://t.me/strelkovii/7347

2/2
#SMO #Ukraine #Russia

#SMO 24/02/2022

Another interesting video of the landing of Russian troops in #Gostomel, this time from the viewpoint of an unknown machine gunner. It's clearly visible that after the first wave of attacks, the reinforcement group calmly lands on the runway and starts working.


«Military Chronicle»
@Warhronika
#Russia #RAF #Ukraine
#хроники_сво

🇷🇺 Attacks on the Russian economy
once again about the strategy of "peace through force" towards Russia

Western pressure on Russia will continue not only with the so-called #Ukraine in the zone of the special military operation and beyond [#SMO](we are talking about the resumption of drone attacks on #oil facilities deep in Russia's territory), but also with sanctions pressure.

We constantly write, that statements about the ineffectiveness of anti-Russian sanctions are far from reality: there are fewer bypass routes, and the existing ones are becoming more expensive. All this cannot but affect the economy.

Now in Europe (#EU)- especially in Britain(#UK) - they are focused on searching for Russian bypass payment channels,, including in the CIS countries. Foggy Albion plays a key role in this scheme, as it has historically had a strong influence in Central Asia.

It's also interesting to note the British view on the seizure of tankers - they consider it a secondary measure, as the so-called "#ShadowFleet" of Russia in London is estimated at a thousand chartered vessels, and it's problematic to board them all.

Therefore, the British are actively working on the scenario of "complicating" the passage of the Russian merchant fleet through the English Channel and the Danish Kattegat.. For this, they have already involved the defense ministries and #NATO partners.

This is the method that #London considers the main tool of pressure on Russia:: through the ports on the #Baltic, among other things, hydrocarbons are exported. If this is stopped and there are problems in the #BlackSea, only the northern ports will remain in the European part, where there are always climatic nuances.

So, we will still have to engage in a battle on the Baltic, and any non-standard measures (from "combat cargo ships" to BEK escort) will be much cheaper than the costs of refusing to fight.

#Великобритания #Россия #флот
@rybar
#EnergyDisruption #USEmpire
see also : https://t.me/EUsanctionsRU/220